Henry Spencer wrote:

There were two "once in a hundred years" storms in the North Sea in the
1980s... within three months of each other in 1987.

There were?

Where?

In article ,
Jo Schaper wrote:
snip

I'm just tagging here on Jonathan's experience...but there is something
seriously wrong with a culture which does not teach its children how to
find water, food, and shelter without a supermarket and a big brother
government to assist you. Or, even, to "know when to hold 'em and know
when to fold 'em" in dealing with a natural disaster. Sometimes,
running to safety temporarily is a *good* idea...

Another example of this stupidity is the US tourist in
Cozumel who did not leave and is now complaining to news
reporters that Bush should send in the Army and fly him
out because the US is "the strongest and most powerful nation
on Earth". Having FEMA is getting to be a big mistake.
Nobody will budget nor expect to pay for cleaning up messes
left by weather. They will expect everybody else to pay
for it. Not only funding, but these people are now expecting
somebody else to do the actual work.

/BAH

If you wanna keep living in hurricane alley then you ain't gonna get any
sympathy here. Florida is a wasteland these days with one hurricane after
the next wiping out your million dollar condos and beach houses.

"jonathan" wrote in message
...

To borrow that well-traveled title.


The electricity is back on! My area was in the first ten
percent restored.

There's something 3 million South Florida residents without power
would like to say to the National Hurricane Center.
Getting the track right is NOT a successful effort when the
intensity is completely botched.

I don't care how many qualifying statements or disclaimers
they made. During the critical time period, about two days
before landfall, when the decisions are made on what to
expect. They were telling us the shear would weaken it
to a cat 1, then weaken further after landfall. To us down
here in Florida a poorly organized cat 1 that is dissipating
is no big deal. Barely miss a day or two of work.

But a TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY MILE WIDE
Category 3 is something entirely completely.... a couple
order of magnitudes.... BIGGER.

We were only one category away from a hundred billion
dollar catastrophe. Everyone down here was completely
taken by surprise on the intensity and especially the
scale of this storm.

There's another thing I'd like to say to the NHC. I know
their political leaders disdain any talk of global warming.
But there's an important trend that must be discussed even
if it leads to their taboo subject.

Wilma was a super-massive vortex.

Last year saw an unprecedented number of land-falling
hurricanes. No one could imagine a season worse, as
last year saw about as many hurricanes as you can fit
into one season. But all that energy has to go somewhere
so the hurricanes are simply getting BIGGER in size.
Forget the intensity for now, they are growing larger
in scale.

Much larger. We saw the incredible size of Katrina when
it was a cat 5 in the gulf. And now Wilma. The large size
of the eye usually indicates a weak hurricane, as they
strengthen the eye tightens. So the NHC sees the large
eye which shouldn't have time to tighten before landfall.
And with the shear of the turn all computer projections
show weakening. Wrong.

It spun up without the eye tightening much.. That NEVER happens.
It had an eye half the size of the Montana for chrissakes.
This is an unprecedented and significant change in hurricane behavior.
It's almost hundred mile wide southern stream of air feeding
the vortex was a most impressive event to witness. You could almost
set your watch by the timing of the lulls and explosive gusts. It had a
symmetry and mass to it that boggles the imagination. For crying
out loud the gusts literally shook the ground. No kidding, the ground
was swaying back and forth under my feet.

But the NHC will not want to talk about it. Why? Because
someone might then ask why are they bigger. Their 20 year
hurricane cycle won't explain it, were they bigger the last
few cycles? Being near a peak solar cycle won't fully explain
it either. We've had both those cycles operating for ages.

But if you add a new variable, global warming, on top of those
other two causes, then you get a more complete answer.
So the NHC won't go down that road since it leads to
somewhere their political leaders wish to avoid.

Meanwhile, the NHC pops a few corks over their accurate
track, while completely missing the true story.


Jonathan

s

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Henry Spencer wrote:

There were two "once in a hundred years" storms in the North Sea in the
1980s... within three months of each other in 1987.

There were?

Where?

For future reference Spencer has seen the error of his ways and
realised that certain regions of the UK have ""once in a hundred years"
storms" quite often.

No facts to go by off-hand but I'd guess these ""once in a hundred
years" storms" occur in the UK with the sort of regularity one would
expect from visitors who arrive every couple of months, i.e. about half
a dozen times a year.

Now had he said that those in sheltered climes were rare he might have
been let off lightly.

Sorry Spencer olde chappe. BLNT.

"Weatherlawyer" wrote in message
ps.com...

Weatherlawyer wrote:
Henry Spencer wrote:

There were two "once in a hundred years" storms in the North Sea in
the
1980s... within three months of each other in 1987.

There were?

Where?

For future reference Spencer has seen the error of his ways and
realised that certain regions of the UK have ""once in a hundred years"
storms" quite often.

No facts to go by off-hand but I'd guess these ""once in a hundred
years" storms" occur in the UK with the sort of regularity one would
expect from visitors who arrive every couple of months, i.e. about half
a dozen times a year.

Now had he said that those in sheltered climes were rare he might have
been let off lightly.

Sorry Spencer olde chappe. BLNT.

Statistically, this is nonsense. If certain storms are considered to be
100 year storms, they certainly are not going to recurr every 'couple of
months'. If they did, they wouldn't be 100 year storms.

In article .com,
Weatherlawyer wrote:
There were two "once in a hundred years" storms in the North Sea in the
1980s... within three months of each other in 1987.

There were?
Where?

In the North Sea. You know, the wet bit between Britain and Scandinavia?
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

In article om,
Weatherlawyer wrote:
There were two "once in a hundred years" storms in the North Sea in the
1980s... within three months of each other in 1987.

For future reference Spencer has seen the error of his ways and
realised that certain regions of the UK have ""once in a hundred years"
storms" quite often.

Uh, no, sorry, wrong. The definition of a "once in a hundred years" storm
for a region is based on local storm history. It's the level of storm
which, *on average*, would be expected to occur there once a century. The
point I was making is that averages are not to be trusted too much,
because coincidences happen.

The "once in a hundred years" level of storm is significant because it's
a common engineering design criterion for things like North Sea oil
platforms. How much weather do you design the platform to withstand?
There's no particular upper limit on what Mother Nature can throw at you
if she's feeling mean, but the higher you set the bar, the more money
you're spending on precautions against quite rare events. One common
criterion is to design to safely withstand a "once in a hundred years"
storm, and take your chances with still more violent (and hence likely
to be still less frequent) storms.
--
spsystems.net is temporarily off the air; | Henry Spencer
mail to henry at zoo.utoronto.ca instead. |

"Jo Schaper" wrote in message
...
Several comments:

Hey, if you chose to stay, great.


Chose? It was half the size of Florida. A small error in the
track could make Key West no safer than Tallahassee on the opposite
end of the state. The whole point is that hurricanes are getting
much larger in size. There was no point in trying to evacuate from
this one.



But shouldn't you have prepared a bit
beforehand, in terms of squirreling water/gasoline/food and so forth?
How about Parrot food?


Had 8 lbs of parrot food, 8 cans of tuna, 4 cans of chicken, 3 jars
of mayo, a box of pudding cups, 2 boxes of fruit things in syrup, one large
bag of pot, 4 12-packs of mountain dew code red (nectar of the caffeine gods)
instead of water, a small bottle of bleach to purify water, 2 bottles of
wine, 4 cans of beans, 8 cans of soup.

And no can opener.

A knife and a needle nose vise grips work ok though.
The day before I decided to buy a little table top barbecue
and charcoal. Note, having charcoal makes you very popular~
Spent the first two days grilling up everything we could
before it spoiled. Ate great the first two days, then
....'urban camping' begins.




People in earthquake areas have supplies, and houses reinforced.


So do we, we have the best building codes anywhere since Andrew
in 92. Most buildings here can take 110 mph winds. Which is no
small thing.



People in flood zones have a plan, and usually a small boat. They know
which roads flood easily and which stay dry. They know when to stay and
when to go.


So do we.


People in tornado alley have basements and storm cellars.


There are no basements in Florida. Any hole more than 12 inches deep
fills with water. The whole place is built on a swamp...er....wetlands.


People who live in ice and snow winterize their cars, carry a sleeping
bag, a change of clothes, and usually some snacks in the winer.

What is it about hurricane "victims"? All I ever see them on TV doing is
hammering plywood over windows. That is a good start, of course. When
the storm is over, the first thing which happens is the appeal to
charities and the feds."Oh, pity me, I'm stupid..."


That's what I say whenever I see those cavers getting stuck underground.
I root for the cave.



Just came back from a town whose downtown a mile wide was leveled two
years ago from a 4-5 strength tornado


A mile wide! This was essentially an f2 tornado that was two hundred and fifty
miles across. Six million people lost electricity. Which means losing perishable
food, water pressure, gas and money for days to weeks. Another category
of two stronger it would've been six million homeless and another hundred
billion dollar hit on the economy.



in SW Missouri. You can't tell
now---the town only lost two businesses permanently (people on the verge
of retirement) and Main Street is back in business. Yeah, the town dealt
with FEMA and SEMA, but mostly the town put itself back together, with
local contractors doing cost-share labor. No people screaming "we need
jobs and health care." Hey, if everything's broke, there is plenty of
work that needs doing, and you don't need to be a journeyman carpenter
to know how to hammer a nail straight.

The *Government" doesn't help. It seems to harass self-sufficient
people, while abandoning the clueless.

I really don't understand this. Of course, I am of an age where civil
defense training and preparedness were part of our science/health
classes...we expected nuclear attack any day, so we were taught and
learned tricks for living on one's own, with little external
infrastructure for weeks on end. Things like purifying water/wilderness
medicine/what you needed on hand to 'get along' for some time until
things got back to normal. Even something as simple as keeping two
week's worth of canned/boxed food in the house at all times--and even
how to use your refrigerator as an 'icebox'. Of course, there was no
way to mitigate radiation...except burrowing underground.

I'm just tagging here on Jonathan's experience...but there is something
seriously wrong with a culture which does not teach its children how to
find water, food, and shelter without a supermarket and a big brother
government to assist you. Or, even, to "know when to hold 'em and know
when to fold 'em" in dealing with a natural disaster. Sometimes,
running to safety temporarily is a *good* idea...


Considering the size of this storm, it's been a remarkably civilized and
efficient recovery. The worst civil disturbances were a few shouting
matches at gas lines and such. The police were out enforcing the
dawn to dusk curfew the first night. They were stationed at all
open gas stations and grocery stored the second day, as were
dozens of sights for free ice and water. Ice and water were
ready and waiting before the storm hit and distributed quickly.

Also the building codes are so good that it's remarkable how little
structural damage occurred. The big hole seems to be having generators
at gas stations, many are demanding they be forced to have them.
Not having gas kept people from work and opening everything back up.

All in all the pace of repairs and civility after this one was inspiring.
This one pretty much culled any weaknesses around the city, we
can take just about anything now. Miami is now as close to hurricane
proof as any city can get. Virtually all the recovery efforts were local.
Fema was a non-issue because the local govts were very well
prepared.

"FREE SHIPPING!" wrote in message
...
If you wanna keep living in hurricane alley then you ain't gonna get any
sympathy here. Florida is a wasteland these days with one hurricane after
the next wiping out your million dollar condos and beach houses.



So the same should hold for earthquake prone areas, or flood
areas, or areas with blizzards, tornadoes, tsunamis, volcanoes
and so on. No one knows where the next natural disaster
will occur.






"jonathan" wrote in message
...

To borrow that well-traveled title.


The electricity is back on! My area was in the first ten
percent restored.

There's something 3 million South Florida residents without power
would like to say to the National Hurricane Center.
Getting the track right is NOT a successful effort when the
intensity is completely botched.

I don't care how many qualifying statements or disclaimers
they made. During the critical time period, about two days
before landfall, when the decisions are made on what to
expect. They were telling us the shear would weaken it
to a cat 1, then weaken further after landfall. To us down
here in Florida a poorly organized cat 1 that is dissipating
is no big deal. Barely miss a day or two of work.

But a TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY MILE WIDE
Category 3 is something entirely completely.... a couple
order of magnitudes.... BIGGER.

We were only one category away from a hundred billion
dollar catastrophe. Everyone down here was completely
taken by surprise on the intensity and especially the
scale of this storm.

There's another thing I'd like to say to the NHC. I know
their political leaders disdain any talk of global warming.
But there's an important trend that must be discussed even
if it leads to their taboo subject.

Wilma was a super-massive vortex.

Last year saw an unprecedented number of land-falling
hurricanes. No one could imagine a season worse, as
last year saw about as many hurricanes as you can fit
into one season. But all that energy has to go somewhere
so the hurricanes are simply getting BIGGER in size.
Forget the intensity for now, they are growing larger
in scale.

Much larger. We saw the incredible size of Katrina when
it was a cat 5 in the gulf. And now Wilma. The large size
of the eye usually indicates a weak hurricane, as they
strengthen the eye tightens. So the NHC sees the large
eye which shouldn't have time to tighten before landfall.
And with the shear of the turn all computer projections
show weakening. Wrong.

It spun up without the eye tightening much.. That NEVER happens.
It had an eye half the size of the Montana for chrissakes.
This is an unprecedented and significant change in hurricane behavior.
It's almost hundred mile wide southern stream of air feeding
the vortex was a most impressive event to witness. You could almost
set your watch by the timing of the lulls and explosive gusts. It had a
symmetry and mass to it that boggles the imagination. For crying
out loud the gusts literally shook the ground. No kidding, the ground
was swaying back and forth under my feet.

But the NHC will not want to talk about it. Why? Because
someone might then ask why are they bigger. Their 20 year
hurricane cycle won't explain it, were they bigger the last
few cycles? Being near a peak solar cycle won't fully explain
it either. We've had both those cycles operating for ages.

But if you add a new variable, global warming, on top of those
other two causes, then you get a more complete answer.
So the NHC won't go down that road since it leads to
somewhere their political leaders wish to avoid.

Meanwhile, the NHC pops a few corks over their accurate
track, while completely missing the true story.


Jonathan

s

jonathan wrote:



Had 8 lbs of parrot food, 8 cans of tuna, 4 cans of chicken, 3 jars
of mayo, a box of pudding cups, 2 boxes of fruit things in syrup, one large
bag of pot,




AH-HA! Now the origin of the entire God/Science connection becomes obvious!
You're practicing Saganomy- the art of foretelling the future via the
interpretation of marijuana seeds scattered on a map of Barsoom! ;-)

Pat