In past years, this board would already have been full of posts from that
Schneider guy predicting doom after watching satellite loops till 3 am. A
hurricane without Scheider is like X-mas without Santa Claus. Tell me his
spirit hasn't been broken by too many near misses and last-second turn-offs
to sea.

Besides Scheider, there would have been several spirited discussions from
knowledgeable folks. Isn't there anyone on Usenet who likes to talk
hurricances?

Jason

On Mon, 30 Aug 2004 18:39:31 -0500,
, in
wrote:

+ Besides Scheider,

He's here. Check the thread on the Labor Day 1935 storm.

+ there would have been several spirited discussions from
+ knowledgeable folks. Isn't there anyone on Usenet who likes to talk
+ hurricances?

Frances poses no imminent danger to anything that anyone even vaguely
cares about. Give it a couple of days, then we'll see what we'll see.

James
--
Consulting Minister for Consultants, DNRC
I can please only one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow
isn't looking good, either.
I am BOFH. Resistance is futile. Your network will be assimilated.

wrote:

In past years, this board would already have been full of posts from that
Schneider guy predicting doom after watching satellite loops till 3 am. A
hurricane without Scheider is like X-mas without Santa Claus....


Santa, eh? Hardly....

Blofeld's hypnotic voice, in "On Her Majesty's 'Secret Service'"
"Now, take out your present. Such a prettily-wrapped present.
Now is the time to open it....."
/Blofeld

- - -

After yesterday's shearing environment resulted in a contraction of
windfield and eyewall tightening, Frances is now moving almost due west
under a nearly perfect outflow environment, and picked up speed as it is
being scooted along by a deep-layer surge (visible on WV) from the east.
The hurricane's windfield will begin to expand, and the current tiny
eyewall ring will be will be replaced by a much larger Isabel/Mitch eye.
The hurricane will then be able to process greater volumes of air, and
should quickly intensity to a very strong cat-4 or cat-5 sometime
tomorrow and maintain that higher intensity until it either strikes land
or recurvature begins (since recurvature is usually accompanied by
southwesterly shear).

The NHC is presently concerned that previously model-hinted recurvature
(with weakening) into the Carolines (your basic, seen-it-before, "Floyd
gets sheared, pukes out, and spares everyone" track) may not happen at
all.....

In the past, I have noticed that large and energetic* hurricanes with
very expansive exhaust canopies can strengthen and "warp" the high
pressure regions around them to accomadate their existence; the stronger
high, in turn, has additional "muscle" to bulldoze pesky jet-streams at
far peripheries. Sometimes seen with west-Pac storms and rarely in the
Atlantic, on WV satellite this assumes the appearance of a westward-
moving hurricane preceded by a forward "bow-shock" (of high cirrus) and
trailing an exhaust "rat-tail" to the east (as if it were a curling
wave) with a standing-wave "Omega Block" north of it retrograding in
tandem. Frances is not yet so large or energetic a storm, although it
is, presently, bigger than Georges was in this vacinity (which accounts
for it weathering the similar shearing episode better despite being
weaker); she does, however, presently lack a large constellation of
feeder-bands, so she's obviously not processing as much atmosphere as,
say, Gilbert or Georges. Should Frances become so large, don't be
surprised to see a very stubborn track break recurve models one after
the other, much as both Gilbert and Georges both did.

Watch the WV, and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf.


(*I use "energetic" as a euphemism for "highly convective", not "with
high wind speeds". A broad cat-3 with a gigantic exhaust canopy is more
capable of modifying the surrounding environment than an intense but
tiny hurricane like Charley. Georges, for example, remained highly
energetic even the its surface-level windfield was shredded by the
Greater Antilles.)


"Bublee-bublee....that's all, Folks!"

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

wrote:

In past years, this board would already have been full of posts from that
Schneider guy predicting doom after watching satellite loops till 3 am. A
hurricane without Scheider is like X-mas without Santa Claus....


Santa, eh? Hardly....

Blofeld's hypnotic voice, in "On Her Majesty's 'Secret Service'"
"Now, take out your present. Such a prettily-wrapped present.
Now is the time to open it....."
/Blofeld

- - -

After yesterday's shearing environment resulted in a contraction of
windfield and eyewall tightening, Frances is now moving almost due west
under a nearly perfect outflow environment, and picked up speed as it is
being scooted along by a deep-layer surge (visible on WV) from the east.
The hurricane's windfield will begin to expand, and the current tiny
eyewall ring will be will be replaced by a much larger Isabel/Mitch eye.
The hurricane will then be able to process greater volumes of air, and
should quickly intensity to a very strong cat-4 or cat-5 sometime
tomorrow and maintain that higher intensity until it either strikes land
or recurvature begins (since recurvature is usually accompanied by
southwesterly shear).

The NHC is presently concerned that previously model-hinted recurvature
(with weakening) into the Carolines (your basic, seen-it-before, "Floyd
gets sheared, pukes out, and spares everyone" track) may not happen at
all.....

In the past, I have noticed that large and energetic* hurricanes with
very expansive exhaust canopies can strengthen and "warp" the high
pressure regions around them to accomadate their existence; the stronger
high, in turn, has additional "muscle" to bulldoze pesky jet-streams at
far peripheries. Sometimes seen with west-Pac storms and rarely in the
Atlantic, on WV satellite this assumes the appearance of a westward-
moving hurricane preceded by a forward "bow-shock" (of high cirrus) and
trailing an exhaust "rat-tail" to the east (as if it were a curling
wave) with a standing-wave "Omega Block" north of it retrograding in
tandem. Frances is not yet so large or energetic a storm, although it
is, presently, bigger than Georges was in this vacinity (which accounts
for it weathering the similar shearing episode better despite being
weaker); she does, however, presently lack a large constellation of
feeder-bands, so she's obviously not processing as much atmosphere as,
say, Gilbert. Should Frances become so large, don't be surprised to see
a very stubborn track break recurve models one after the other, much as
both Gilbert and Georges both did.

Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


(*I use "energetic" as a euphemism for "highly convective", not "with
high wind speeds". A broad cat-3 with a gigantic exhaust canopy is more
capable of modifying the surrounding environment than an intense but
tiny hurricane like Charley. Georges, for example, remained highly
energetic even the its surface-level windfield was shredded by the
Greater Antilles.)


"Bublee-bublee....that's all, Folks!"

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

Now that's a little more like it- thanks.

I don't have any expert knowledge (that's what you guys are for), but it
looks to me like the models don't show that anything like the Floyd
curvature might happen:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical...406_model.html

The GFDL has the most dramatic curvature, and it has landfall around the
Ga./SC border. And the weight of the models seems to show landfall somewhere
in mid-Florida south of Jacksonville.

That's why this one has my attention- I seem to recall that the experts knew
in advance that Floyd would curve dramatically.

Jason

wrote:

looks to me like the models don't show that anything like the Floyd
curvature might happen:


Many were on Saturdday.


That's why this one has my attention- I seem to recall that the experts knew
in advance that Floyd would curve dramatically.


Actually Floyd continually tracked left of expectations, and only
shanked off in a nick of time to spare Miami a direct 150mph hit.

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

In article

t,
Mike1 wrote:
The hurricane's windfield will begin to expand, and the current tiny
eyewall ring will be will be replaced by a much larger Isabel/Mitch eye.
The hurricane will then be able to process greater volumes of air, and
should quickly intensity to a very strong cat-4 or cat-5 sometime


Well, we got the big, new "donut-hole" eye last night, with "stadium
effect" appearance beginning to manifest. (Note how yesterday's smaller
eye morphed into a meso-curl inside the larger eye.) I don't think
there'll be anymore eyewall replacements now that this stable,
high-atmosphere-volume-processing eyewall is in place...at least not
until shear or land impact take their toll on the windfield.


In the past, I have noticed that large and energetic* hurricanes with
very expansive exhaust canopies can strengthen and "warp" the high
pressure regions around them to accomadate their existence; the stronger
high, in turn, has additional "muscle" to bulldoze pesky jet-streams at
far peripheries. Sometimes seen with west-Pac storms and rarely in the
Atlantic, on WV satellite this assumes the appearance of a westward-
moving hurricane preceded by a forward "bow-shock" (of high cirrus) and
trailing an exhaust "rat-tail" to the east (as if it were a curling


We're getting the rat-tail and bow-shock appearances. Check. Upper-low
over Bahammas and southern-Florida beginning to retrograde west ahead of
the hurricane. Check.

The 8/31/11am advisory discusses various models and their
northwest-turning projections, noting only a few models still aiming at
the keys. ....I'm actually wondering: How do we keep it off of *Cuba*?

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

On Mon, 30 Aug 2004 23:54:17 -0500, Mike1
wrote:


Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).

Yes your scenario is similar to the ECMWF model. This model is
starting to verify. The ULL that was west of Frances can be seen
lifting out and the ridge ahead of the storm is bulldozing west
underneath the tail end of the trough in Louisiana. Frances is still
moving nearly west at 280 degrees and is already south of the official
track. Would probably be smarter to flip the official track down
through the Florida straights and adjust it back north as necessary.
If they start evacuating people southward from the Carolinas its going
to be kind of crowded in Key West by the time they decide on the
actual landfall.

"Mike1" wrote in message .
The 8/31/11am advisory discusses various models and their
northwest-turning projections, noting only a few models still aiming at
the keys. ....I'm actually wondering: How do we keep it off of *Cuba*?

And the crowd roars its approval. Who needs the national hurricane center?
Go west young man, or woman (is Frances a male or female? I suppose female
because of spelling). I can see the signs on boarded windows already:
"Lighten up, Frances!"

I can understand "ridges" very well, but I admit I'm a bit fuzzy on the
whole "trough" concept. I think I read somewhere that it was an elongated
low pressure area, but all I see on the map on weather.com is a long mostly
blue partly red line leading up the Appalachians. I see no indication that
it's a low pressure area, which I understand to be low pressure areas which
rotate counter-clockwise. What's portrayed on the map is what I understood
to be a warm/cold front, not a low pressure area. So what exactly IS that
thing on the map, in layman's terms.

Jason

wrote:

And the crowd roars its approval. Who needs the national hurricane center?
Go west young man, or woman (is Frances a male or female? I suppose female
because of spelling). I can see the signs on boarded windows already:
"Lighten up, Frances!"

I can understand "ridges" very well, but I admit I'm a bit fuzzy on the
whole "trough" concept. I think I read somewhere that it was an elongated
low pressure area, but all I see on the map on weather.com is a long mostly
blue partly red line leading up the Appalachians. I see no indication that
it's a low pressure area, which I understand to be low pressure areas which
rotate counter-clockwise. What's portrayed on the map is what I understood
to be a warm/cold front, not a low pressure area. So what exactly IS that
thing on the map, in layman's terms.

Jason

A trough is, as you already stated, an elongated low
pressure area. You seem to be confusing that with a closed
low, which would exhibit a cyclonic circulation. Frontal
zones are drawn in troughs. The map you looked at on
weather.com must not have included a pressure analysis, but
the placement of the front indicates trough position.