On Tue, 31 Aug 2004 11:36:59 -0500,
Mike1 , in
wrote:

+ the keys. ....I'm actually wondering: How do we keep it off of *Cuba*?

Fidel goes out and huffs and puffs at it?

James
--
Consulting Minister for Consultants, DNRC
I can please only one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow
isn't looking good, either.
I am BOFH. Resistance is futile. Your network will be assimilated.

On Tue, 31 Aug 2004 12:44:39 -0500,
, in
wrote:

+ I can understand "ridges" very well, but I admit I'm a bit fuzzy on the
+ whole "trough" concept.

Think about topography. Think of ridges...and valleys. Does that help?

James
--
Consulting Minister for Consultants, DNRC
I can please only one person per day. Today is not your day. Tomorrow
isn't looking good, either.
I am BOFH. Resistance is futile. Your network will be assimilated.

I live in Charleston, South Carolina. What are the chances of Frances
taking a hurricane Hugo track?

AminoSC


wrote in message
. ..
In past years, this board would already have been full of posts from that
Schneider guy predicting doom after watching satellite loops till 3 am. A
hurricane without Scheider is like X-mas without Santa Claus. Tell me his
spirit hasn't been broken by too many near misses and last-second
turn-offs
to sea.

Besides Scheider, there would have been several spirited discussions from
knowledgeable folks. Isn't there anyone on Usenet who likes to talk
hurricances?

Jason

"AminoSC" wrote in message
...
I live in Charleston, South Carolina. What are the chances of Frances
taking a hurricane Hugo track?

A couple of the models have it doing that, according to the 11 pm update.
Most have it hitting Florida, though.

Jason

On Tue, 31 Aug 2004 21:53:17 -0500, wrote:


"AminoSC" wrote in message
...
I live in Charleston, South Carolina. What are the chances of Frances
taking a hurricane Hugo track?

A couple of the models have it doing that, according to the 11 pm update.
Most have it hitting Florida, though.

Jason

The upper level flow still looks pretty zonal meaning systems north of
30N are moving east and systems south of 30 north are moving west
across the gulf. I think the models that have Frances turning north
are relying on the coriolis effect overcoming the steering from a high
pressure ridge. The official forecast keeps moving the track farther
and farther south so everybody needs to check the weather forecast
frequently. If you live in south Florida you might only have one day
to shop and prepare once the media starts sounding the alarm.

Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:

Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.
http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WXMAP/index.html

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

"Mike1" wrote in message
...
Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:

Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.

That is a bold call man, a bold call indeed. I'm going to stick with the
path that takes Frances right up through central Florida into southern
Georgia where it will become just another blob on the radar.

WV backing to about PCOLA as of 8:30 AM THURSDAY


--
Don
SEMPER VIGILS
It's your God-given right to sit on your back porch and eat Chinese
takeout by candlelight in your underwear.
http://www.angelfire.com/ms2/paswx REAL TIME OBS PAGE
http://www.jcmsara.org. Jackson County Ms Club Page

"Mike1" wrote in message
...
wrote:

In past years, this board would already have been full of posts from that
Schneider guy predicting doom after watching satellite loops till 3 am. A
hurricane without Scheider is like X-mas without Santa Claus....


Santa, eh? Hardly....

Blofeld's hypnotic voice, in "On Her Majesty's 'Secret Service'"
"Now, take out your present. Such a prettily-wrapped present.
Now is the time to open it....."
/Blofeld

- - -

After yesterday's shearing environment resulted in a contraction of
windfield and eyewall tightening, Frances is now moving almost due west
under a nearly perfect outflow environment, and picked up speed as it is
being scooted along by a deep-layer surge (visible on WV) from the east.
The hurricane's windfield will begin to expand, and the current tiny
eyewall ring will be will be replaced by a much larger Isabel/Mitch eye.
The hurricane will then be able to process greater volumes of air, and
should quickly intensity to a very strong cat-4 or cat-5 sometime
tomorrow and maintain that higher intensity until it either strikes land
or recurvature begins (since recurvature is usually accompanied by
southwesterly shear).

The NHC is presently concerned that previously model-hinted recurvature
(with weakening) into the Carolines (your basic, seen-it-before, "Floyd
gets sheared, pukes out, and spares everyone" track) may not happen at
all.....

In the past, I have noticed that large and energetic* hurricanes with
very expansive exhaust canopies can strengthen and "warp" the high
pressure regions around them to accomadate their existence; the stronger
high, in turn, has additional "muscle" to bulldoze pesky jet-streams at
far peripheries. Sometimes seen with west-Pac storms and rarely in the
Atlantic, on WV satellite this assumes the appearance of a westward-
moving hurricane preceded by a forward "bow-shock" (of high cirrus) and
trailing an exhaust "rat-tail" to the east (as if it were a curling
wave) with a standing-wave "Omega Block" north of it retrograding in
tandem. Frances is not yet so large or energetic a storm, although it
is, presently, bigger than Georges was in this vacinity (which accounts
for it weathering the similar shearing episode better despite being
weaker); she does, however, presently lack a large constellation of
feeder-bands, so she's obviously not processing as much atmosphere as,
say, Gilbert or Georges. Should Frances become so large, don't be
surprised to see a very stubborn track break recurve models one after
the other, much as both Gilbert and Georges both did.

Watch the WV, and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf.


(*I use "energetic" as a euphemism for "highly convective", not "with
high wind speeds". A broad cat-3 with a gigantic exhaust canopy is more
capable of modifying the surrounding environment than an intense but
tiny hurricane like Charley. Georges, for example, remained highly
energetic even the its surface-level windfield was shredded by the
Greater Antilles.)


"Bublee-bublee....that's all, Folks!"

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick


---
Outgoing mail is certified Virus Free.
Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
Version: 6.0.749 / Virus Database: 501 - Release Date: 9/1/2004

Mr. Poopy Pants wrote:
"Mike1" wrote in message
...

Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 22:42:39 -0500
Newsgroup: sci.geo.meteorology
Subject: Where's all the Hurricance Frances talk? Schneider?

I wrote:


Watch the WV and keep an eye on the trough presently running from the
Gulf up the Ohio River into the northeast US; if you see the
Gulf/lower-states portion begin to retrograde west as Frances approaches
-- watch out! -- because that means the in-tandem Omega pattern is
setting up to enable Frances to continue chugging W/WNW (where the
likely track would be across Florida toward a second strike in the
north-central Gulf).


Now hear this:

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004
snip
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW.
snip


The 00Z NOGAPS and EMC (the only two models out as I write) are now
shifting the projected track to the left -- both move Frances across
southern Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, and have it over waters there
sufficient time for it to completely regain strength prior to second
landfall.


That is a bold call man, a bold call indeed. I'm going to stick with the
path that takes Frances right up through central Florida into southern
Georgia where it will become just another blob on the radar.

I don't know how bold it is. It is consistent with
d(prog)/dt, which is sometimes a pretty good forecast
tool. And it's consistent with Mike's climatology

I'm not sure how shear-free the environment will be
over the GufMex should Frances emerge into it. I
certainly wouldn't be stunned, though, if Frances
hit, say, the Big Easy. The question is -- would it be
like Andrew (a mere shadow of its former self) or
Betsy (still just as strong).

Sure is a pretty storm from space.

Scott

There is a lot of filth and bottom-feeders walking around on two legs that
need to be washed away in the devastation that this hurricane is bringing
with it.
I'm going to predict (and hope for) landfall in the extremely populated
Jacksonville area, where it will do the most damage.

Cheap disaster brings a hearty twinkle to the eye! Laughing when the very
young and weak are doomed to die! When tragedy is near, we like to clap and
cheer! All those who think they're brave will find us ****ing on their
graves!