These images change every six hours, so look fast,
but I think Orlando, Florida is under a curse:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/...s/al092004.gif

xanthian.

That far out, the farthest out tip of the predicted
path of a tropical cyclone wavers the width of a
continent from forecast to forecast, if I were a Los
Vegas bookie, I wouldn't be putting much credence in
an Orlando three-fer, but still...

The only things Orlando would have missed if Ivan
follows that track is a tropical cyclone coming down
from the Arctic via violation of every physical law
known to meteorology, or maybe up from the middle of
the Earth via one of Florida's famous sinkholes, or
down from outer space via alien pre-invasion
softening up wind-generator machinery...

"If Nature abhors a vacuum, think how much more it
must dislike Mickey Mouse."

kryppy wrote:

On 9 Sep 2004 03:01:19 -0700, (Kent Paul Dolan)
wrote:

These images change every six hours, so look fast,
but I think Orlando, Florida is under a curse:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/...s/al092004.gif


Sitting here in Ft Laud with four ninty foot trees down in my back
yard, all I can say is bring it on. I've already identified and
eliminated most of my problems as I hope all have in the path.

Big trees are nice, but considering the fact that if one of mine would
have fell in a different direction I would have been squashed like a
bug where I was sleeping, they are gone and not coming back.

Good luck to all.

My one tip is, whatever generator you are thinking of buying is not
big enough. Spend double of what you are thinking. Consider a quiet
one as well.


It depends on how much stuff you want to run. I got by OK
with a 4 kilowatt one for 6 days after Isabel, and the only
concession I had to make was not running the washer on more
than a medium load. Of course, I wasn't trying to run the
whole house, just a fridge, washer and dryer, a microwave, TV,
a couple of lights, computer, and a fan. Quiet is nice,
especially if you have to have it close to the house. It is
also nicer for the neighbors, especially if you are the only
person in the neighborhood with one. You don't want them both
annoyed and jealous. ;-) My added recommendation is getting an
extended run generator and have plenty of expendables (including
oil and filters) on hand.

Cheers,
Russell
--
There are lies, damned lies, and quotes from literary icons.

The opinions expressed are mine personally and do not
reflect any position of the U.S. Government or NOAA.

(Kent Paul Dolan) wrote:

These images change every six hours, so look fast,
but I think Orlando, Florida is under a curse:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/...s/al092004.gif


Sea temps: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

Five possible track scenerios within current probability cone:

1. Right outlayer: Storm hits glances off eastern Jamaica (weakening
somewhat), then crosses central Cuba (weakening more), crosses the
shortest portion of the Strait to hit the Florida tip going due north.
Among within-current-probability-cone, this is the best case, as it
brings the storm into the unpopulated Everglades section of Florida as
at best a cat-3 (with the eye then exiting along the "space coast" of
eastern Florida).

2. Charlie repeat: Expect a strong cat-4 at landfall as the storm
re-fuels up over warm water prior to landfall. A powerful storm, but
actually a "preferable scenerio" from an insurance industry stand-point,
since it'll be impacking many "already total loss" areas.

3. Middle of the cone: Central to east Panhandle hit -- Good news and
bad news: Prior to landfall, the storm will cross cooler water churned
by Frances. Unfortunately even a cat-3 storm hear will drive a massive
storm surge in; and Ivan's very large TS-force wind fetch rather than
maximum eyewall winds will generate enormous waves. And, if the storm is
accelerating north, it may spend no more than a few hours over this
cooler water.

4. Mobile hit AKA ("Camille track"): This is a worst-case scenerio, as
the storm will track NNW and remain east of France's cold "patch".
Unless badly sheared, could be a cat-5 at landfall.

5. Left outlayer: Storm proceeds into the central Gulf to a point south
of Louisianna, where it really cranks over that warm eddy. Best case (if
you can hope for one with a landfalling cat-5) is it charges ashore in
the lightly-populated mangro delta swamps and bleeds off strength. Worst
cases are a stall just south of the Delta for several days (which means
sustained easterly fetch floods New Orleans), followed by a left-angle
job into Houston as a high builds north.

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

In article ,
Kent Paul Dolan wrote:
These images change every six hours, so look fast,
but I think Orlando, Florida is under a curse:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/...s/al092004.gif
[ ... ]

Or, one can just save:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/index1.html

and click on the current link for the cyclone of interest.


Gary

--
Gary Heston

Contrary to popular opinion, _not_ everyone loves Raymond.

Houston, New Orleans, Miami, Orlando.....who cares? As long as it
devastates an overpopulated metropolis and cuts the surplus population
somewhat.

Five possible track scenerios within current probability cone:

1. Right outlayer: Storm hits glances off eastern Jamaica (weakening
somewhat), then crosses central Cuba (weakening more), crosses the
shortest portion of the Strait to hit the Florida tip going due north.
Among within-current-probability-cone, this is the best case, as it
brings the storm into the unpopulated Everglades section of Florida as
at best a cat-3 (with the eye then exiting along the "space coast" of
eastern Florida).

2. Charlie repeat: Expect a strong cat-4 at landfall as the storm
re-fuels up over warm water prior to landfall. A powerful storm, but
actually a "preferable scenerio" from an insurance industry stand-point,
since it'll be impacking many "already total loss" areas.

3. Middle of the cone: Central to east Panhandle hit -- Good news and
bad news: Prior to landfall, the storm will cross cooler water churned
by Frances. Unfortunately even a cat-3 storm hear will drive a massive
storm surge in; and Ivan's very large TS-force wind fetch rather than
maximum eyewall winds will generate enormous waves. And, if the storm is
accelerating north, it may spend no more than a few hours over this
cooler water.

4. Mobile hit AKA ("Camille track"): This is a worst-case scenerio, as
the storm will track NNW and remain east of France's cold "patch".
Unless badly sheared, could be a cat-5 at landfall.

5. Left outlayer: Storm proceeds into the central Gulf to a point south
of Louisianna, where it really cranks over that warm eddy. Best case (if
you can hope for one with a landfalling cat-5) is it charges ashore in
the lightly-populated mangro delta swamps and bleeds off strength. Worst
cases are a stall just south of the Delta for several days (which means
sustained easterly fetch floods New Orleans), followed by a left-angle
job into Houston as a high builds north.

--
Reply to sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.

Twin City Strategy Gamer: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/

Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
-- Jeffrey Quick

Mike1 wrote:
Five possible track scenerios within current probability cone:

So? That's like putting a bet on every possible roulette table
number, then screaming "I win" when the ball falls in a slot.

xanthian.

Bad Weather wrote:
Houston, New Orleans, Miami, Orlando.....who cares? As long as it
devastates an overpopulated metropolis and cuts the surplus population
somewhat.

Why wait for the storm? Surely you can find something around the house
with which to relieve the planet of your own personal contribution to
the surplus.

"Bob Harrington" wrote in message
news:9Yq0d.69088$3l3.4779@attbi_s03...
Bad Weather wrote:
Houston, New Orleans, Miami, Orlando.....who cares? As long as it
devastates an overpopulated metropolis and cuts the surplus population
somewhat.

Why wait for the storm? Surely you can find something around the house
with which to relieve the planet of your own personal contribution to
the surplus.



Nope. I keep my nuclear warheads out in the shed.
It prevents the kittens from accidentally getting
into them.

//
--
The time has come for me to kill this game
Now open wide and say my name -- Eminem

"Bob Harrington" wrote in message
news:9Yq0d.69088$3l3.4779@attbi_s03...
Why wait for the storm? Surely you can find something around the house
with which to relieve the planet of your own personal contribution to
the surplus.

D'you ever notice that, the ones bitching the most about something, never
volunteer to eliminate themselves and/or their personal contribution to
whatever it is?

Here's another one for Orlando - how about you stay home and give us a week
or two to put this place back together before you swarm in to the beach and
get in the way.