I already have one conjecture on the board for this year and following
years. I conjectured last year that we would have an ever increasing
number of hurricanes hit the east coast of USA as to make Florida
uninhabitable during the hurricane season. A point will be reached
where Florida is no longer feasible for humans to live there during the
hurricane season. A precise mathematical model is simply to correlate
the increase in ocean temperature as Global Warming increases.

Finally we have had a bit of rainfall tonight as we, here in South
Dakota have been without rain for about 2 months. We had too much rain
2 months ago and then no rain thereafter.

And I have been in a bad mood during this drought because of the
drought. So this is the year I finally am putting these problem of
rainfall to a final solution. I am preparing myself for upcoming years
to constantly have added sources of water. Pumping it from wells, and
buying more hydrant connections to the county water system, and
collecting rainwater from roofs. I have found in life that when a
problem arises that stresses me, the solution is to get on top of the
problem with a multiple attack so that in the case of one of these
years when it does not rain for the entire summer that I have the
problem checked and lose no plants or trees.

I now have 2 pumps and will have hoses readily available covering all
my land. And am planning to get more pumps for the wells.

But tackling this problem made we wonder and come up with another
conjecture. I have no quick way of proving whether this conjecture is
true or not and would have to research the data.

Conjectu as global warming increases, it makes winters milder and
makes summers hotter but more importantly it alters the pattern of
rainfall so that the interiors of continents get less rain and the rain
that falls on continents is concentrated to where it is not needed such
as the coasts where hurricanes meander. So Global Warming may be a
delight to those who hate cold winters but Global Warming is really bad
on rainfall in that it puts the rainfall in Florida and the Gulf Coast
to flood stages and it leaves the interior of the continent and USA
mainlaind dryer and dryer each year. So the conjecture basically says
that as Global Warming increases, it changes the pattern of rainfall
and concentrates the rainfall in places where rain is already too much
and takes away from the rest of the continent the rain which is due
them and makes them increasingly drought and dryer climates.

So as Global Warming goes unchecked then hurricanes increase and the
interiors of the continents get dryer and dryer and where rainfall is
already too much in parts of the world those parts will have even more
rain.

This conjecture makes sense because it is connected to increasing
hurricanes and where hurricanes frequent there is too much rain.

This conjecture also implies that the total rainfall on continents is
somewhat a constant and that as you increase the rain of places like
Florida and the Gulf Coast you take away that rain from the interior of
the continent. Which is probably a conjecture in itself. That the
amount of total rain on continents is somewhat constant and fixed and
so if you flood places that receive too much rain already means that
other places become dryer-- sort of a zero sum dynamics.

In order to prove any of the above conjectures I would have to need the
past data to look for patterns.

One of the events that raised my suspicion was the recent hurricane
through Florida-- I forgotten its name whether Denis or Emily. Anyway,
the weather forecasts of our area was that hurricane Denis would shoot
some of its moisture up into the Midwest and that our drought would be
relieved. But instead we got no rain from Denis and that places on the
Gulf Coast were flooded.

And I read recently of typhoons in Asia which were abnormally over rain
amounts. So I wonder if interiors of Asia are in severe drought.

It makes sense that global warming increases the frequency of
hurricanes and hurricanes dump water on places that already get too
much water, so my conjecture is that as global warming increase so does
hurricane activity increase and so does flooding in the path of
hurricanes and that water does not get to the interior of continents
and they become dryer and drought ridden.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
whole entire Universe is just one big atom
where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies

wrote in message
ps.com...
I already have one conjecture on the board for this year and following
years. I conjectured last year that we would have an ever increasing
number of hurricanes hit the east coast of USA as to make Florida
uninhabitable during the hurricane season. A point will be reached
where Florida is no longer feasible for humans to live there during the
hurricane season. A precise mathematical model is simply to correlate
the increase in ocean temperature as Global Warming increases.

Survey says, not... there will be an increasing number, then a decreasing
number in a cycle. Etc etc.

Morituri-|-Max wrote:
wrote in message
ps.com...
I already have one conjecture on the board for this year and
following years. I conjectured last year that we would have an ever
increasing number of hurricanes hit the east coast of USA as to make
Florida uninhabitable during the hurricane season. A point will be
reached where Florida is no longer feasible for humans to live there
during the hurricane season. A precise mathematical model is simply
to correlate the increase in ocean temperature as Global Warming
increases.

Survey says, not... there will be an increasing number, then a
decreasing number in a cycle. Etc etc.

True. The fourty year cycle seems to be established. Howver, the strength of
hurricanes depends on the temperature of the water and that is incrasing
under global warming. Probably the strength ( but not the number ) will be
enhanced slightly.


On drought in ND, the IPCC study showed the risks. ( see #6)

-Observed- = Confidence in Observed Changes:
-Projected- = Confidence in Projected changesa)

1: Higher maximum temperatures and more Very hot days over nearly all land
areas
-Observed-: Likely
-Projected-: Very likely

2: Higher minimum temperatures, fewer Very cold days and frost days over
nearly all land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

3: Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

4: Increase of heat index over land areas.
-Observed-: Likely over many areas
-Projected-: Very likely over most areas

5: More intense precipitation events.(b)
-Observed-: Likely over many N.A. mid-high latitude land areas.
-Projected-: Very likely over many areas.

6: Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought.
-Observed-: Likely in a few areas
-Projected-: Likely over most mid-latitude continental interiors. Possible
elsewhere.

7: Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities.(c)
-Observed-: Not observed
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

8: Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities.(c)
-Observed-: N/A
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

a) For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapter 9, 10
(projections).

b) For other areas, there are either insufficient data or conflicting
analyses.

c) Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are
uncertain.

Ian St. John wrote:
Morituri-|-Max wrote:
wrote in message
ps.com...
I already have one conjecture on the board for this year and
following years. I conjectured last year that we would have an ever
increasing number of hurricanes hit the east coast of USA as to make
Florida uninhabitable during the hurricane season. A point will be
reached where Florida is no longer feasible for humans to live there
during the hurricane season. A precise mathematical model is simply
to correlate the increase in ocean temperature as Global Warming
increases.

Survey says, not... there will be an increasing number, then a
decreasing number in a cycle. Etc etc.

True. The fourty year cycle seems to be established. Howver, the strength of
hurricanes depends on the temperature of the water and that is incrasing
under global warming. Probably the strength ( but not the number ) will be
enhanced slightly.


On drought in ND, the IPCC study showed the risks. ( see #6)

-Observed- = Confidence in Observed Changes:
-Projected- = Confidence in Projected changesa)

1: Higher maximum temperatures and more Very hot days over nearly all land
areas
-Observed-: Likely
-Projected-: Very likely

2: Higher minimum temperatures, fewer Very cold days and frost days over
nearly all land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

3: Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

4: Increase of heat index over land areas.
-Observed-: Likely over many areas
-Projected-: Very likely over most areas

5: More intense precipitation events.(b)
-Observed-: Likely over many N.A. mid-high latitude land areas.
-Projected-: Very likely over many areas.

6: Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought.
-Observed-: Likely in a few areas
-Projected-: Likely over most mid-latitude continental interiors. Possible
elsewhere.

7: Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities.(c)
-Observed-: Not observed
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

8: Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities.(c)
-Observed-: N/A
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

a) For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapter 9, 10
(projections).

b) For other areas, there are either insufficient data or conflicting
analyses.

c) Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are
uncertain.

If we consider the amount of freshwater delivered to continents per
year is a fairly constant amount, a zero sum dynamics that lasts for
perhaps millions of years with little change. So if the increasing
Global Warming dumps most of its water on the coasts due to increasing
hurricane activity spells disaster for interiors of continents due to
drying and drought.

So the new pattern of rainfall under increasing Global Warming is to
make more water where there is already too much rainfall and to make
drying and drought for the interiors of continents.

But I think what will spur the drive to tackle Global Warming is not
the gradual turning of the agricultural Midwest of the USA as a desert
climate but rather the turning of the entire state of Florida and
surrounding Gulf Coast states as uninhabitable during the summer months
due to Hurricanes. If every year the people of Florida are forced to
evacuate 3, then 4, then 5, then 6 times in one year, soon those angry
people are going to demand the government do something about Global
Warming.

Turning the Midwest into a desert is gradual. Rising ocean levels and
rising coastlines is gradual. But the yearly evacuation of a state like
Florida is the final straw.

P.S. my spot of ground received a mere 0.6 cm of rainfall last night
which is too little for 2 months worth of rain. My currant bushes are
having a struggle.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
whole entire Universe is just one big atom
where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies

Ian St. John wrote:

Morituri-|-Max wrote:

wrote in message
oups.com...

I already have one conjecture on the board for this year and
following years. I conjectured last year that we would have an ever
increasing number of hurricanes hit the east coast of USA as to make
Florida uninhabitable during the hurricane season. A point will be
reached where Florida is no longer feasible for humans to live there
during the hurricane season. A precise mathematical model is simply
to correlate the increase in ocean temperature as Global Warming
increases.

Survey says, not... there will be an increasing number, then a
decreasing number in a cycle. Etc etc.


True. The fourty year cycle seems to be established. Howver, the strength of
hurricanes depends on the temperature of the water and that is incrasing
under global warming. Probably the strength ( but not the number ) will be
enhanced slightly.


On drought in ND, the IPCC study showed the risks. ( see #6)

-Observed- = Confidence in Observed Changes:
-Projected- = Confidence in Projected changesa)

1: Higher maximum temperatures and more Very hot days over nearly all land
areas
-Observed-: Likely
-Projected-: Very likely

2: Higher minimum temperatures, fewer Very cold days and frost days over
nearly all land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

3: Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas
-Observed-: Very likely
-Projected-: Very likely

4: Increase of heat index over land areas.
-Observed-: Likely over many areas
-Projected-: Very likely over most areas

5: More intense precipitation events.(b)
-Observed-: Likely over many N.A. mid-high latitude land areas.
-Projected-: Very likely over many areas.

6: Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought.
-Observed-: Likely in a few areas
-Projected-: Likely over most mid-latitude continental interiors. Possible
elsewhere.

7: Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities.(c)
-Observed-: Not observed
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

8: Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities.(c)
-Observed-: N/A
-Projected-: Likely over some areas.

a) For more details see Chapter 2 (observations) and Chapter 9, 10
(projections).

b) For other areas, there are either insufficient data or conflicting
analyses.

c) Past and future changes in tropical cyclone location and frequency are
uncertain.


With a large % of the ice caps gone,
where does the water go?
John

"John Sefton" wrote in message
...

With a large % of the ice caps gone,
where does the water go?

Into the oceans.

--
Coby Beck
(remove #\Space "coby 101 @ bigpond . com")

Coby Beck wrote:
"John Sefton" wrote in message
...

With a large % of the ice caps gone,
where does the water go?

Into the oceans.

--
Coby Beck
(remove #\Space "coby 101 @ bigpond . com")

I am looking for a nice simple analogy to help support the claim of
drying out of the interiors of continents as Global Warming
intensifies.

Trouble I am encountering is that the drying out of interiors maybe
only a transitional effect and not a long term effect.

The analogy of a lid on a pot of simmering water and we watch how water
condenses on the inside of the lid and then falls back into the water.
It condenses and falls back into the water at its edges but that
probably has more to do with the shape of the lid.

I need an analogy that simulates the recycling of water that
differentiates land from oceans.

I need to address the idea that the amount of water that the land
masses of Earth receive in a year is fairly constant amount-- perhaps
even a zero net sum. So that if the land masses were to receive all of
its rainwater along the coasts of the continent in year 2007 then none
would fall in the interiors of the continents for 2007 because of zero
net sum dynamics. So that as hurricane activity increases and dumps the
water along the coasts means that the interior of the continent
receives that much less in rainfall and experiences a severe drought.

But I am not sure that the rainfall pattern follows a zero net sum
dynamics. That is only a hunch that needs checking into.

But I suppose that if one checks whether during a large volcanic
eruption that interfers with rainfall and increases rainfall for that
year and then whether in following years the rainfall reverts back to
what it was before the eruption indicates that rainfall is zero net sum
dynamics.

And the way that Global Warming affects rainfall if it is zero net sum
over long periods of time is that Global Warming increases hurricane
activity which then dumps alot of water on the coasts which would have
been dumped in normal years into the interiors. So overall, as Global
Warming intensifies then the drying out of interiors of continents
intensifies to the point where they slide into being deserts or
desertification of interiors such as the Midwest of the USA. And the
coasts not only are battered by hurricanes but are turned into flooding
zones.

It would be nice to model this dynamics from a simmering pot and it
would be nice to have an analogy that either denies or confirms whether
rainfall over continents follows a long term zero net sum dynamics.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
whole entire Universe is just one big atom
where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies

wrote:


I am looking for a nice simple analogy to help support the claim of
drying out of the interiors of continents as Global Warming
intensifies.


That's because you are incredibly simple-minded.

I am not sure as to how the Jet Stream is affected by increasing
hurricane activity. When we have normal jet streams we seem to have our
normal regular yearly rainfall pattern. But in the last 2 years with
increasing hurricanes in Florida and Gulf Coast I notice the Jet Stream
pattern is broken and we have had droughts in the summertime.

So it is possible that with increasing Global Warming will destroy the
Jet Stream pattern by increasing the hurricane activities. And thus
make the interiors of continents as deserts.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
whole entire Universe is just one big atom
where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies

Now I suspect there is a nice simple analogy for rainfall on continents
and it is the analogy of a water pump. The amount of water a pump can
deliver to a region of land depends on the pump strength and how close
the pump is to the source and how much elevation the pump has to
overcome. The interior of continents depends on the oceans as a pump
to evaporate water and to deliver that evaporated water into the
interiors. This involves Jet Streams and other currents of wind and
air. But as the global-warming increases hurricane activity interfers
with the slow and steady process of evaporation and delivery into
continent interiors and the dumping of that water by the hurricanes
along the coasts.

In other words, Global Warming interfers with the slow and steady
process of cloud delivery of water to continental interiors and dumps
the water on the hurricane pathway. So as Global Warming increases then
human agriculture has to decrease due to the failing of rainfall.

Archimedes Plutonium
www.iw.net/~a_plutonium
whole entire Universe is just one big atom
where dots of the electron-dot-cloud are galaxies