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#21
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"Coby Beck" wrote in message
news:xsNLe.196011$tt5.146158@edtnps90... Based on what I have seen in the real world, you NEVER want to use model output to gain confidence in your measurements. You should normally want to use several independent measurements (e.g., use several different methods) of the same variables to attempt to answer the question of what the real measurements should be. Yes. Hence the point I was making is that the measurements are not worth much because they are less confidence inspiring than the balloon data. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^ model predictions. sorry for the confusion. -- Coby Beck (remove #\Space "coby 101 @ bigpond . com") |
#22
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In article ,
owl wrote: On Sun, 14 Aug 2005 18:31:09 +0100, "Alastair McDonald" wrote: "owl" wrote in message . .. Back to the original article Roger posted:- http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8917093/ "This was used by some critics to say 'We don't believe in climate models, they're wrong,'" Santer told LiveScience. "Other people used the disconnect between what the satellites told and what surface thermometers told us to argue that the surface data were wrong and that earth wasn't really warming because satellites were much more accurate." I think it is true to say that George W. Bush belongs to the first group of critics Actually, GBJr has never denied GW or human involvement (tho you'd think otherwise when his loyalists 'discuss' it.):- he's just thrown up the FUD about everything that follows after that. He most certainly denied both, up until this year. |
#23
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On 15 Aug 2005 15:09:46 GMT, (Lloyd Parker) wrote:
In article , owl wrote: On Sun, 14 Aug 2005 18:31:09 +0100, "Alastair McDonald" k wrote: "owl" wrote in message ... Back to the original article Roger posted:- http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8917093/ "This was used by some critics to say 'We don't believe in climate models, they're wrong,'" Santer told LiveScience. "Other people used the disconnect between what the satellites told and what surface thermometers told us to argue that the surface data were wrong and that earth wasn't really warming because satellites were much more accurate." I think it is true to say that George W. Bush belongs to the first group of critics Actually, GBJr has never denied GW or human involvement (tho you'd think otherwise when his loyalists 'discuss' it.):- he's just thrown up the FUD about everything that follows after that. He most certainly denied both, up until this year. That's just plain incorrect, a great myth, and a media ponyride that keeps trying to say 'there, he said it' for a headline. Back as far as his famous No-Kyoto rejection, the theme was 'It's about the environment. And it's about jobs. There has to be a balance." http://ygraine.membrane.com/enterhtm...ts_Treaty.html Said Bush in 2001 - "We'll be working with our allies to reduce greenhouse gases, but I will not accept a plan that will harm our economy and hurt American workers," the president told reporters Thursday when asked about the climate agreement reached in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. He's used Fear (you'll lose your job), Uncertainty (unsubstantiated claims of Science, more research required), and Doubt (you may not have electricity) to keep the issue off his agenda. Speech in 2002:- http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatecha...782747,00.html "In pursuit of this goal, my government has set two priorities: we must clean our air, and we must address the issue of global climate change. We must also act in a serious and responsible way, given the scientific uncertainties. While these uncertainties remain, we can begin now to address the human factors that contribute to climate change. Wise action now is an insurance policy against future risks." "I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and it's central goal, to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate. Our immediate goal is to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions relative to the size of our economy." "If, however, by 2012, our progress is not sufficient and sound science justifies further action, the United States will respond with additional measures that may include broad-based market programmes as well as additional incentives and voluntary measures designed to accelerate technology development and deployment." Like I posted - GWBJr hasn't denied global warming or absolved a human connection. Show me the denial. |
#24
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In article ,
owl wrote: On 15 Aug 2005 15:09:46 GMT, (Lloyd Parker) wrote: In article , owl wrote: On Sun, 14 Aug 2005 18:31:09 +0100, "Alastair McDonald" . uk wrote: "owl" wrote in message m... Back to the original article Roger posted:- http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8917093/ "This was used by some critics to say 'We don't believe in climate models, they're wrong,'" Santer told LiveScience. "Other people used the disconnect between what the satellites told and what surface thermometers told us to argue that the surface data were wrong and that earth wasn't really warming because satellites were much more accurate." I think it is true to say that George W. Bush belongs to the first group of critics Actually, GBJr has never denied GW or human involvement (tho you'd think otherwise when his loyalists 'discuss' it.):- he's just thrown up the FUD about everything that follows after that. He most certainly denied both, up until this year. That's just plain incorrect, a great myth, and a media ponyride that keeps trying to say 'there, he said it' for a headline. Oh come on, of the EPA report about global warming, he dismissed it as something the "bureaucrats" had said. He repeatedly said more study was needed, that the science was not settled. Only this year did he accept GW. Back as far as his famous No-Kyoto rejection, the theme was 'It's about the environment. And it's about jobs. There has to be a balance." http://ygraine.membrane.com/enterhtm...Rejects_Treaty. html Said Bush in 2001 - "We'll be working with our allies to reduce greenhouse gases, but I will not accept a plan that will harm our economy and hurt American workers," the president told reporters Thursday when asked about the climate agreement reached in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. He's used Fear (you'll lose your job), Uncertainty (unsubstantiated claims of Science, more research required), and Doubt (you may not have electricity) to keep the issue off his agenda. Speech in 2002:- http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatecha...782747,00.html "In pursuit of this goal, my government has set two priorities: we must clean our air, and we must address the issue of global climate change. We must also act in a serious and responsible way, given the scientific uncertainties. While these uncertainties remain, we can begin now to address the human factors that contribute to climate change. Wise action now is an insurance policy against future risks." "I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and it's central goal, to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate. Our immediate goal is to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions relative to the size of our economy." "If, however, by 2012, our progress is not sufficient and sound science justifies further action, the United States will respond with additional measures that may include broad-based market programmes as well as additional incentives and voluntary measures designed to accelerate technology development and deployment." Like I posted - GWBJr hasn't denied global warming or absolved a human connection. Show me the denial. July 24, 2003 - The Bush administration announced its final details of a 10-year plan to study global warming to determine whether greenhouse gases and other human-generated pollutants have contributed to an unnatural warming of Earth's atmosphere. This move was widely criticized and seen as a way for the Administration to delay any real action on global warming. (7/25/03 – The Washington Post, “Taking on Global Climate Change”) Then there's the changing of the EPA report, deleting the section on GW. Refuse to believe that too? |
#26
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"A campaign to avoid action is a very different beef from rejecting the
problem or the connection." Owl, this is only true if the person doing the rejection is making an honest attempt to consider the issue. Bush isn't. In his case, the campaign to avoid action is the means of rejection. Of course this approach is not unique to him. "owl" wrote in message ... On 15 Aug 2005 21:02:16 GMT, (Lloyd Parker) wrote: In article , owl wrote: On 15 Aug 2005 15:09:46 GMT, (Lloyd Parker) wrote: In article , owl wrote: On Sun, 14 Aug 2005 18:31:09 +0100, "Alastair McDonald" o.uk wrote: "owl" wrote in message news:djnuf1143gva7lrci4a4ngcfkbc3bekah6@4ax. com... Back to the original article Roger posted:- http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8917093/ "This was used by some critics to say 'We don't believe in climate models, they're wrong,'" Santer told LiveScience. "Other people used the disconnect between what the satellites told and what surface thermometers told us to argue that the surface data were wrong and that earth wasn't really warming because satellites were much more accurate." I think it is true to say that George W. Bush belongs to the first group of critics Actually, GBJr has never denied GW or human involvement (tho you'd think otherwise when his loyalists 'discuss' it.):- he's just thrown up the FUD about everything that follows after that. He most certainly denied both, up until this year. That's just plain incorrect, a great myth, and a media ponyride that keeps trying to say 'there, he said it' for a headline. Oh come on, of the EPA report about global warming, he dismissed it as something the "bureaucrats" had said. He repeatedly said more study was needed, that the science was not settled. Only this year did he accept GW. Still wrong, and direct quotes from Bush as far back as 2001 have been provided to support this. His rejection of the EPA Report is exactly that. Yes, he has said more study is needed - instead of action. That doesn't say he's rejected either GW or human involvement. Back as far as his famous No-Kyoto rejection, the theme was 'It's about the environment. And it's about jobs. There has to be a balance." http://ygraine.membrane.com/enterhtm...Rejects_Treaty. html Said Bush in 2001 - "We'll be working with our allies to reduce greenhouse gases, but I will not accept a plan that will harm our economy and hurt American workers," the president told reporters Thursday when asked about the climate agreement reached in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. He's used Fear (you'll lose your job), Uncertainty (unsubstantiated claims of Science, more research required), and Doubt (you may not have electricity) to keep the issue off his agenda. Speech in 2002:- http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatecha...782747,00.html "In pursuit of this goal, my government has set two priorities: we must clean our air, and we must address the issue of global climate change. We must also act in a serious and responsible way, given the scientific uncertainties. While these uncertainties remain, we can begin now to address the human factors that contribute to climate change. Wise action now is an insurance policy against future risks." "I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and it's central goal, to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate. Our immediate goal is to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions relative to the size of our economy." "If, however, by 2012, our progress is not sufficient and sound science justifies further action, the United States will respond with additional measures that may include broad-based market programmes as well as additional incentives and voluntary measures designed to accelerate technology development and deployment." Like I posted - GWBJr hasn't denied global warming or absolved a human connection. Show me the denial. July 24, 2003 - The Bush administration announced its final details of a 10-year plan to study global warming to determine whether greenhouse gases and other human-generated pollutants have contributed to an unnatural warming of Earth's atmosphere. This move was widely criticized and seen as a way for the Administration to delay any real action on global warming. (7/25/03 - The Washington Post, "Taking on Global Climate Change") Yes. Link- http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...¬Found=true And the response is massive stall-strategy anger. However, the spokespeople are not George Bush, and there's no denial of warming. There is a big fat U as in FUD about joining the dots between human pollution and 'unnatural' warming. Then there's the changing of the EPA report, deleting the section on GW. Refuse to believe that too? And that cover up is evidence that GWBJr denied GW or an AGW connection? No, it isn't. It's evidence of a continued course of not taking action. The eyes-wide shut are yours, not mine. A campaign to avoid action is a very different beef from rejecting the problem or the connection. So quit with the substitute responses - show the George Bush denials. |
#27
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On Mon, 15 Aug 2005 22:51:35 GMT, "Steve Bloom"
wrote: "A campaign to avoid action is a very different beef from rejecting the problem or the connection." Owl, this is only true if the person doing the rejection is making an honest attempt to consider the issue. Steve, that's not the only time it's true. And in this case, that restriction is false - Bush knows about the warming, and he accepts the connection - it's the remediation action, in any shape or form that has mandatory on it, that he's fighting. Imo, it's anything but a co-incidence that the '2003 Study' Lloyd referred to has 2007 and 2012 target dates on it. It's anything but a co-incidence that a band of science sorcerers around the Administration cry chicken-little at the problem, while another smaller of group of people in the Administration say it's a known and action could be 'in the pipe' shortly. Bush has laid it out very clearly - he's responsible for the welfare of the American people, and it is not in the best interests of the American people to clean it up. It gets down to terrible ROI:- and the American voters bought the package. Bush isn't. In his case, the campaign to avoid action is the means of rejection. Of course this approach is not unique to him. Altho it could be a word game to join those dots, I'll agree that there are cases where rejection is behind a refusal to act. In Bush's case, however, that isn't the case. If anything, that is the most frustrating part about it - the tactic of proving there's a problem or joining the dots to pollution won't work. He says "Yabut" and then talks jobs and energy supply. |
#28
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"Raymond Arritt" wrote in message
news:AULLe.25762$084.24826@attbi_s22... Alastair McDonald wrote: The point that I am making is that the models are wrong, but the scientists are not willing to face that fact, perhaps because it they do, they will have egg on their faces in a big way! To the contrary we're very, very aware that the models are wrong. That's why we spend so much effort on model development and verification. The models always will be wrong in a formal sense but they are continually improving. I don't remember who originally said "All models are wrong, but some models are useful." It's one of my favorite quotes. My favourite quote is "All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others" George Orwell "Animal Farm." It is like saying all men can be President of the USA, so long as you have $100, 000,000, or anyone can get published in Nature so long as you have FRS after your name. It is even like saying "all scientists are not willing to face the facts" then excluding Raymond Pierrehumbert who wrote: "... something is wrong with the slab atmosphere model." See http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/geo232/Notes.pdf page 24. Anyway enough of this hand waving. It is not that the models are inherently inferior to actuality. They would not be models if they were exactly the same. The problem is that even the GCMs use the slab model and Schwarzschild's equation to calculate the effects of radiation. All is explained in my paper which I have put up on the web at; http://www.abmcdonald.freeserve.co.uk/brief/brief.htm with a PDF version at http://www.abmcdonald.freeserve.co.uk/brief/brief.pdf I'll post another message in a new thread where comments will be welcome. Cheers, Alastair. |
#29
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In article ,
owl wrote: On 15 Aug 2005 21:02:16 GMT, (Lloyd Parker) wrote: In article , owl wrote: On 15 Aug 2005 15:09:46 GMT, (Lloyd Parker) wrote: In article , owl wrote: On Sun, 14 Aug 2005 18:31:09 +0100, "Alastair McDonald" o.uk wrote: "owl" wrote in message news:djnuf1143gva7lrci4a4ngcfkbc3bekah6@4ax. com... Back to the original article Roger posted:- http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8917093/ "This was used by some critics to say 'We don't believe in climate models, they're wrong,'" Santer told LiveScience. "Other people used the disconnect between what the satellites told and what surface thermometers told us to argue that the surface data were wrong and that earth wasn't really warming because satellites were much more accurate." I think it is true to say that George W. Bush belongs to the first group of critics Actually, GBJr has never denied GW or human involvement (tho you'd think otherwise when his loyalists 'discuss' it.):- he's just thrown up the FUD about everything that follows after that. He most certainly denied both, up until this year. That's just plain incorrect, a great myth, and a media ponyride that keeps trying to say 'there, he said it' for a headline. Oh come on, of the EPA report about global warming, he dismissed it as something the "bureaucrats" had said. He repeatedly said more study was needed, that the science was not settled. Only this year did he accept GW. Still wrong, and direct quotes from Bush as far back as 2001 have been provided to support this. His rejection of the EPA Report is exactly that. Yes, he has said more study is needed - instead of action. That doesn't say he's rejected either GW or human involvement. Back as far as his famous No-Kyoto rejection, the theme was 'It's about the environment. And it's about jobs. There has to be a balance." http://ygraine.membrane.com/enterhtm..._Rejects_Treat y. html Said Bush in 2001 - "We'll be working with our allies to reduce greenhouse gases, but I will not accept a plan that will harm our economy and hurt American workers," the president told reporters Thursday when asked about the climate agreement reached in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. He's used Fear (you'll lose your job), Uncertainty (unsubstantiated claims of Science, more research required), and Doubt (you may not have electricity) to keep the issue off his agenda. Speech in 2002:- http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatecha...782747,00.html "In pursuit of this goal, my government has set two priorities: we must clean our air, and we must address the issue of global climate change. We must also act in a serious and responsible way, given the scientific uncertainties. While these uncertainties remain, we can begin now to address the human factors that contribute to climate change. Wise action now is an insurance policy against future risks." "I reaffirm America's commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention and it's central goal, to stabilise atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate. Our immediate goal is to reduce America's greenhouse gas emissions relative to the size of our economy." "If, however, by 2012, our progress is not sufficient and sound science justifies further action, the United States will respond with additional measures that may include broad-based market programmes as well as additional incentives and voluntary measures designed to accelerate technology development and deployment." Like I posted - GWBJr hasn't denied global warming or absolved a human connection. Show me the denial. July 24, 2003 - The Bush administration announced its final details of a 10-year plan to study global warming to determine whether greenhouse gases and other human-generated pollutants have contributed to an unnatural warming of Earth's atmosphere. This move was widely criticized and seen as a way for the Administration to delay any real action on global warming. (7/25/03 – The Washington Post, “Taking on Global Climate Change”) Yes. Link- http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp...ntId=A37478-20 03Jul23¬Found=true And the response is massive stall-strategy anger. However, the spokespeople are not George Bush, and there's no denial of warming. Oh come on, you're saying Bush's spokespeople lie about his ideas now? He directly said more study is needed whether human activities (greenhouse gases) have contributed to warming. That's certainly not an acceptance. There is a big fat U as in FUD about joining the dots between human pollution and 'unnatural' warming. Then there's the changing of the EPA report, deleting the section on GW. Refuse to believe that too? And that cover up is evidence that GWBJr denied GW or an AGW connection? No, it isn't. It's evidence of a continued course of not taking action. No, the deleted section merely reported that GW is occurring. The Bush people ordered it deleted. The eyes-wide shut are yours, not mine. A campaign to avoid action is a very different beef from rejecting the problem or the connection. So quit with the substitute responses - show the George Bush denials. Shown. Open your eyes. |
#30
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In article ,
owl wrote: On Mon, 15 Aug 2005 22:51:35 GMT, "Steve Bloom" wrote: "A campaign to avoid action is a very different beef from rejecting the problem or the connection." Owl, this is only true if the person doing the rejection is making an honest attempt to consider the issue. Steve, that's not the only time it's true. And in this case, that restriction is false - Bush knows about the warming, and he accepts the connection - it's the remediation action, in any shape or form that has mandatory on it, that he's fighting. Imo, it's anything but a co-incidence that the '2003 Study' Lloyd referred to has 2007 and 2012 target dates on it. It's anything but a co-incidence that a band of science sorcerers around the Administration cry chicken-little at the problem, while another smaller of group of people in the Administration say it's a known and action could be 'in the pipe' shortly. Bush has laid it out very clearly - he's responsible for the welfare of the American people, and it is not in the best interests of the American people to clean it up. It gets down to terrible ROI:- and the American voters bought the package. Bush isn't. In his case, the campaign to avoid action is the means of rejection. Of course this approach is not unique to him. Altho it could be a word game to join those dots, I'll agree that there are cases where rejection is behind a refusal to act. In Bush's case, however, that isn't the case. If anything, that is the most frustrating part about it - the tactic of proving there's a problem or joining the dots to pollution won't work. He says "Yabut" and then talks jobs and energy supply. Owl: http://observer.guardian.co.uk/inter...046363,00.html http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0609-02.htm And: "The latest example of this ostrichlike behavior involves some heavy-handed censorship of a draft report that is due out next week from the Environmental Protection Agency. As described by Andrew Revkin and Katharine Seelye in The New York Times, the report was intended to provide the first comprehensive review of what is known about environmental problems and what gaps in understanding remain to be filled. But by the time the White House Council on Environmental Quality and the Office of Management and Budget finished with it and hammered the Environmental Protection Agency into submission, a long section on the risks posed by rising global temperatures was reduced to a noncommittal paragraph. Gone is any mention that the 1990s are likely to have been the warmest decade in the last thousand years in the Northern Hemisphere. Gone, also, is a judgment by the National Research Council about the likely human contributions to global warming, though the evidence falls short of conclusive proof. Gone, too, is an introductory statement that "Climate change has global consequences for human health and the environment." All that is left in the report is some pablum about the complexities of the issue and the research that is needed to resolve the uncertainties. This is the second shameful case of censorship involving global warming in less than a year. Last September, a whole chapter on climate was deleted from the Environmental Protection Agency's annual report on air-pollution trends. That deed was done by Bush appointees at the agency, with White House approval, possibly because the White House had been angered by a previous report from the State Department suggesting the dire harm that could come from climate change. President George W. Bush had dismissed that report as "put out by the bureaucracy." And I assume you've read what NASA's Hansen said about the White House suppression of GW info. |
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