In article E05ff.114013$S4.84492@edtnps84,
"Coby Beck" wrote:

"Steve Schulin" wrote in message
...
In article FL3ff.200479$ir4.167709@edtnps90,
"Coby Beck" wrote:

But what about this, Steve? Do you think that Corbyn's prediction was
fulfilled? As far as I can see, it wasn't, #27 didn't become a tropical
storm. Am I wrong about that?

You are right about that. As was the kook when he stated the same fact
in this thread yesterday. Here was my reply to him: "That's true enough.
The fact remains that the biggest storm since Tropical Depression 26
formed when and where Corbyn forecast."

Ok, so we all agree that this prediction failed, though it was close. ...

I don't think we agree on the implications of what's transpired in this
case. At 4 AM on November 15, 2005, the National Hurricane Center
discussed TD27, noting, in part, that "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN." That this short-term NHC forecast so well
matches the Solar Weather Technique forecast described in Oct 21 news
release is not done justice by the "Ok... this prediction failed... But
it is just a single data point..."

... But
it is just a single data point, keep them coming.

I figured there were folks who'd be interested. Glad to hear that you
wouldn't be offended by more.

Very truly,

Steve Schulin
http://www.nuclear.com

In article ,
says...


I've stopped being surprised at how often you alarmists use the phrase
"no doubt".

Dows that mean you accept the conclusion that there is "No Doubt" that climate
is changing?

As for Corbyn, I'm as happy for him about the advances he reports as I
was for our own dear Richard when Science, after rejecting it for
publication, selected his GRL paper as an Editor's Pick or somesuch. I
wouldn't be at all surprised if Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique gets a
lot of press attention next hurricane season.

It must have been a slow news week...

But, how thoughtful of you to mention me in your post. Why would you ever do
that, unless?? Oh, look, the Draft of SAP 1.1 is out (finally).

http://www.climatescience.gov/Librar...raft/default.h
tm

Great timing, Nuke!!

--
(R.) Eric Swanson --- E-mail address: e_swanson(at)skybest.com :-)
--------------------------------------------------------------

Steve Schulin wrote:

In article E05ff.114013$S4.84492@edtnps84,
"Coby Beck" wrote:


Ok, so we all agree that this prediction failed, though it was close. ...


I don't think we agree on the implications of what's transpired in this
case. At 4 AM on November 15, 2005, the National Hurricane Center
discussed TD27, noting, in part, that "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN."

Followed immediately by "HOWEVER"...and a bunch of reasons as to why
they thought this was unlikely.

Meanwhile, Piers Corbyn claimed even as recently as the 15th Nov that
"We find it is likely to become revitalized rather than to weaken from
around the 18th."

I guess we'll find out over the next day or two how right he was...it
seems remiss of the relevant authorities to not have ordered evacuations
in the relevant areas.

I see no sign of the promised "major Atlantic storm" in the 20-25 Nov
which will affect the UK, but I confidently predict there will be at
least a light breeze somewhere at some point in that interval.

James
--
James Annan
see web pages for email
http://www.ne.jp/asahi/julesandjames/home/
http://julesandjames.blogspot.com/

In article ,
(Eric Swanson) wrote:

In article ,
says...


I've stopped being surprised at how often you alarmists use the phrase
"no doubt".

Dows that mean you accept the conclusion that there is "No Doubt" that climate
is changing?

Gee whiz, Eric, I've long been of the opinion that the phrase "climate
change" is redundant.

As for Corbyn, I'm as happy for him about the advances he reports as I
was for our own dear Richard when Science, after rejecting it for
publication, selected his GRL paper as an Editor's Pick or somesuch. I
wouldn't be at all surprised if Corbyn's Solar Weather Technique gets a
lot of press attention next hurricane season.

It must have been a slow news week...

But, how thoughtful of you to mention me in your post. Why would you ever do
that, unless?? ...

Like I said, I am as happy for Corbyn as I was for you. It was a
perspective kind of comment.

... Oh, look, the Draft of SAP 1.1 is out (finally).

http://www.climatescience.gov/Librar...ft/default.htm

Great timing, Nuke!!

I downloaded the pdf shortly after seeing your announcement post.
Thanks. (And BTW, the first thing I did was search to see if your paper
was mentioned).

Very truly,

Steve Schulin
http://www.nuclear.com

John wrote:
"Psalm 110" a écrit dans le message de news:
...
My turn to predict violent weather.
[...]
My prediction is based on the satellite pictures
showing two streams of hot moist air are about to collide in the Gulf
of Mexico in two days and exit across mid and upper Florida. The winds
will be well below hurricane speeds but the rains will be tremendous
and last some three days of torrents. Widespread flooding is coming to
mid Florida.

Numerous tornados will be spawned by the clash of cold and warm air
masses.

Other parts of the Gulf coast and south will get a piece of this. The
blue tarps are likely to get ripped off of broken roofs from Miami to
New Orleans. Some roofs are going to fly too.

[...]

And the bad news is..............?

Not enough Solar Leprechans flying out of the Astrologer Lobby's
collective buttocks???

I'm just curious as to which satellite channel displays heat and moisture.
Good one! LOL.

My prediction is based on the satellite pictures
showing two streams of hot moist air are about to collide in the Gulf
of Mexico in two days and exit across mid and upper Florida.

Robert Grumbine wrote:
In article ,
Steve Schulin wrote:

In article .com,
"Psalm 110" wrote, in part:


... Steve Schulin, by proxy, predicted
a "major Tropical Storm or hurricane to develop in the Carribean in
Mid-November". A piddly tropical depression #27 formed just long enough
for the Astrologer Piers Corbyn to stake his claim on it as the one he
predicted through his sock-puppet Schulin. Too bad. It fizzled from
embarassment by being associated with Corbyn and Schulin. "Death before
Dishonor".

I, on the other hand am not making prediction centuries in advance
based on Solar Leprechans flying out of the mothership parked up
Corbyn's buttocks...

Dang. When I saw the Oct 21 Weather Action news release, I thought
others in sci.environment would be interested in the expectation stated
therein for the formation of major Tropical Storm or hurricane in
Carribbean around Nov 13-16. The expectation was said to have been based
on latest version of Weather Action's proprietary Solar Weather
Technique. The claims that this method is astrology seem to be grounded
in a definition of astrology which would include any scientific inquiry
into the effects of the solar system on the sun. That definition seems
quite unreasonable to me. This "fizzled from embarassment" notion is a
hoot. The kook does have a creative flair.


A forecast of 'around November 13-16' doesn't gain much interest from
the professionals -- just how far 'around' does he mean? Would the 10th
count? How about the 20th? They're 'around' the time period. Professionals
have to give boundaries -- between Nov 13 and 16 inclusive (and only --
if it happens at 12:01 AM on the 17th, the forecast is busted).

Nor does this forecast verify even with the sloppiness about valid time.
The forecast was for a 'major Tropical Storm or Hurricane'. Again,
what's a 'major' one here? But no matter in this case, #27 never
reached either category at all, so can hardly be considered a 'major' one.

Tropical storm and hurricane are both defined quantities, and
the only system during his period anywhere in or near the region
simply didn't reach the definition.

Again you show your double standards.

Good that he has any.

josh halpern

Steve Schulin wrote:

I figured there were folks who'd be interested. Glad to hear that you
wouldn't be offended by more.

Keep posting them. With an 0-3 record, astrology is sure to get one
right sooner or later. Even a stopped clock is right at least once a
day.


--
Phil Hays
--
Clues for sale or rent,
Hints for just fifty cents.
No trolls, no spam, no twits.
Only fools smoke them cigarettes.

Steve Schulin wrote:

The fact remains that the biggest storm since Tropical Depression 26
formed when and where Corbyn forecast."

So? The predicted Major tropical storm or hurricane didn't happen.

Astrology 0 Reality 3.

Keep up the postings Steve, nothing like a track record to show the
failures.


--
Phil Hays
--
Clues for sale or rent,
Hints for just fifty cents.
No trolls, no spam, no twits.
Only fools smoke them cigarettes.

Phil Hays wrote:
Steve Schulin wrote:

I figured there were folks who'd be interested. Glad to hear that you
wouldn't be offended by more.

Keep posting them. With an 0-3 record, astrology is sure to get one
right sooner or later. Even a stopped clock is right at least once a
day.

Maybe, but my stopped electronic display clock doesn't seem to agree
with you -- it agrees more with Schulin-Corbyn Moonies. It never tells
the correct answer, not even once.