Atlantic TS Epsilon Is About a 1 in 80,000 Year Event!!!!!

Tropical storm Epsilon, number 29, is now active in the Atlantic:

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...age&hwvmetric=

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...ems&hwvmetric=

If one controls for the increasing capability to observe
tropical storms over the last 126 Atlantic hurricane seasons,
this year's 29 Atlantic storms are about a 1 in 80,000 event!

If one ignores the 4 storms per year per century growth in
counted storms, this year's 29 storms is a 1 in 1,700,000
event. I won't use this, because it is misleading. I'll
leave the lying and exaggeration to the Carbon industry
lobbyists. They are the experts at that.

Storms
[1] 11 7 6 4 4 8 12 19 9 9 4 11 9 12 7
[16] 6 7 6 11 9 7 12 5 10 5 5 11 5 10 11
[31] 5 6 7 6 1 5 14 3 5 3 4 6 4 7 8
[46] 2 11 7 6 3 2 9 11 21 11 6 16 9 8 5
[61] 8 6 10 10 11 11 6 9 9 13 13 10 7 14 11
[76] 12 8 8 10 11 7 11 5 9 12 6 11 8 8 15
[91] 10 13 7 8 11 9 10 6 12 9 11 12 6 4 13
[106] 11 6 7 12 11 14 8 7 8 7 19 13 8 14 12
[121] 15 15 12 16 15 29

The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm
Currently, these data are preliminary and dated Friday,
July 15, 2005 9:00PM.

sort(Storms)
[1] 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
[16] 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
[31] 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
[46] 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
[61] 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
[76] 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
[91] 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
[106] 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15
[121] 16 16 19 19 21 29

Storms[126]
[1] 29
mean(Storms)
[1] 9.142857
sd(Storms)
[1] 4.086493

fitted.model

Call:
lm(formula = Storms ~ Year, data = aframe)

Coefficients:
(Intercept) Year
-70.80045 0.04115


residuals(fitted.model)[126]
126
17.28496

residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)
126
4.229779

pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms))
126
0.9999883

# Yes, except for this year's extreme and a few others,
# the residuals of the "Storms" data are normally
# distributed. A normal quartile-quartile plot shows a
# straight line, confirming this.

1/(1-pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)))
126
85498.98
# Which rounds to 1 in 80,000.

# NOTE:
# to remove any bias due to increasing capability to observe
# hurricanes, I have used the current value of the trendline
# and not the mean as a baseline. Thus, the call to the
# residual here. Had I used the mean as a base line the
# result would have been 1 in 1,700,000. I'll leave the
# lying and exaggeration to the fossil fools.

pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms))
[1] 0.9999994
1/(1-pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms)))
[1] 1697027

You are being unclear.

TS Epsilon itself is not a 1 in 80K year event. After all,
tropical storms in early December aren't exactly rare. See
TS Otto from last year for example. It is the accumulation
of all the previous storms before Eps that is unusual.


Scott



Roger Coppock wrote:
Atlantic TS Epsilon Is About a 1 in 80,000 Year Event!!!!!


[snip rest]

NOAA ATTRIBUTES RECENT INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY
TO NATURALLY OCCURRING MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Nov. 29, 2005 - The nation is nowwrapping up the 11th year of a new era of
heightened Atlantic hurricane activity. This era has been unfolding in the
Atlantic since 1995, and is expected to continue for the next decade or
perhaps longer. NOAA attributes this increased activity to natural occurring
cycles in tropical climate patterns near the equator. These cycles, called
"the tropical multi-decadal signal," typically last several decades (20 to
30 years or even longer). As a result, the North Atlantic experiences
alternating decades long (20 to 30 year periods or even longer) of above
normal or below normal hurricane seasons. NOAA research shows that the
tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane
activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming.



"Roger Coppock" wrote in message
oups.com...
Atlantic TS Epsilon Is About a 1 in 80,000 Year Event!!!!!

Tropical storm Epsilon, number 29, is now active in the Atlantic:

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...age&hwvmetric=

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...ems&hwvmetric=

If one controls for the increasing capability to observe
tropical storms over the last 126 Atlantic hurricane seasons,
this year's 29 Atlantic storms are about a 1 in 80,000 event!

If one ignores the 4 storms per year per century growth in
counted storms, this year's 29 storms is a 1 in 1,700,000
event. I won't use this, because it is misleading. I'll
leave the lying and exaggeration to the Carbon industry
lobbyists. They are the experts at that.

Storms
[1] 11 7 6 4 4 8 12 19 9 9 4 11 9 12 7
[16] 6 7 6 11 9 7 12 5 10 5 5 11 5 10 11
[31] 5 6 7 6 1 5 14 3 5 3 4 6 4 7 8
[46] 2 11 7 6 3 2 9 11 21 11 6 16 9 8 5
[61] 8 6 10 10 11 11 6 9 9 13 13 10 7 14 11
[76] 12 8 8 10 11 7 11 5 9 12 6 11 8 8 15
[91] 10 13 7 8 11 9 10 6 12 9 11 12 6 4 13
[106] 11 6 7 12 11 14 8 7 8 7 19 13 8 14 12
[121] 15 15 12 16 15 29

The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm
Currently, these data are preliminary and dated Friday,
July 15, 2005 9:00PM.

sort(Storms)
[1] 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
[16] 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
[31] 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
[46] 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
[61] 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
[76] 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
[91] 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
[106] 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15
[121] 16 16 19 19 21 29

Storms[126]
[1] 29
mean(Storms)
[1] 9.142857
sd(Storms)
[1] 4.086493

fitted.model

Call:
lm(formula = Storms ~ Year, data = aframe)

Coefficients:
(Intercept) Year
-70.80045 0.04115


residuals(fitted.model)[126]
126
17.28496

residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)
126
4.229779

pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms))
126
0.9999883

# Yes, except for this year's extreme and a few others,
# the residuals of the "Storms" data are normally
# distributed. A normal quartile-quartile plot shows a
# straight line, confirming this.

1/(1-pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)))
126
85498.98
# Which rounds to 1 in 80,000.

# NOTE:
# to remove any bias due to increasing capability to observe
# hurricanes, I have used the current value of the trendline
# and not the mean as a baseline. Thus, the call to the
# residual here. Had I used the mean as a base line the
# result would have been 1 in 1,700,000. I'll leave the
# lying and exaggeration to the fossil fools.

pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms))
[1] 0.9999994
1/(1-pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms)))
[1] 1697027

Roger,

All too often the study of data requires care.

Given the sample size, even assuming the correctness of your
statistical model, the uncertainty in your estimate is so large
as to make your result worthless. IOW, estmating the tail of
the distribution at an 80,000 year return period from ~100 years
of data is simply silly. It's abuse like this that gives the field
of statistics a bad name. Please stop.

Cheers,
Russell

Roger Coppock wrote:
Atlantic TS Epsilon Is About a 1 in 80,000 Year Event!!!!!

Tropical storm Epsilon, number 29, is now active in the Atlantic:

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...age&hwvmetric=

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...ems&hwvmetric=

If one controls for the increasing capability to observe
tropical storms over the last 126 Atlantic hurricane seasons,
this year's 29 Atlantic storms are about a 1 in 80,000 event!

If one ignores the 4 storms per year per century growth in
counted storms, this year's 29 storms is a 1 in 1,700,000
event. I won't use this, because it is misleading. I'll
leave the lying and exaggeration to the Carbon industry
lobbyists. They are the experts at that.

Storms
[1] 11 7 6 4 4 8 12 19 9 9 4 11 9 12 7
[16] 6 7 6 11 9 7 12 5 10 5 5 11 5 10 11
[31] 5 6 7 6 1 5 14 3 5 3 4 6 4 7 8
[46] 2 11 7 6 3 2 9 11 21 11 6 16 9 8 5
[61] 8 6 10 10 11 11 6 9 9 13 13 10 7 14 11
[76] 12 8 8 10 11 7 11 5 9 12 6 11 8 8 15
[91] 10 13 7 8 11 9 10 6 12 9 11 12 6 4 13
[106] 11 6 7 12 11 14 8 7 8 7 19 13 8 14 12
[121] 15 15 12 16 15 29

The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm
Currently, these data are preliminary and dated Friday,
July 15, 2005 9:00PM.

sort(Storms)
[1] 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
[16] 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
[31] 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
[46] 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
[61] 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
[76] 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
[91] 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
[106] 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15
[121] 16 16 19 19 21 29

Storms[126]
[1] 29
mean(Storms)
[1] 9.142857
sd(Storms)
[1] 4.086493

fitted.model

Call:
lm(formula = Storms ~ Year, data = aframe)

Coefficients:
(Intercept) Year
-70.80045 0.04115


residuals(fitted.model)[126]
126
17.28496

residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)
126
4.229779

pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms))
126
0.9999883

# Yes, except for this year's extreme and a few others,
# the residuals of the "Storms" data are normally
# distributed. A normal quartile-quartile plot shows a
# straight line, confirming this.

1/(1-pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)))
126
85498.98
# Which rounds to 1 in 80,000.

# NOTE:
# to remove any bias due to increasing capability to observe
# hurricanes, I have used the current value of the trendline
# and not the mean as a baseline. Thus, the call to the
# residual here. Had I used the mean as a base line the
# result would have been 1 in 1,700,000. I'll leave the
# lying and exaggeration to the fossil fools.

pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms))
[1] 0.9999994
1/(1-pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms)))
[1] 1697027

Roger full of **** and meaningless numbers again, to him, anything that
happens out if the norm is because of global warming. what a jerk!

"Capri" wrote in message
oups.com...
Roger full of **** and meaningless numbers again, to him, anything that
happens out if the norm is because of global warming. what a jerk!

Roger is a "True Believer". Without true believers there are no religions.

In article ,
"Jik Bombo" wrote:
NOAA ATTRIBUTES RECENT INCREASE IN HURRICANE ACTIVITY
TO NATURALLY OCCURRING MULTI-DECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY

Nov. 29, 2005 - The nation is nowwrapping up the 11th year of a new era of
heightened Atlantic hurricane activity. This era has been unfolding in the
Atlantic since 1995, and is expected to continue for the next decade or
perhaps longer. NOAA attributes this increased activity to natural occurring
cycles in tropical climate patterns near the equator. These cycles, called
"the tropical multi-decadal signal," typically last several decades (20 to
30 years or even longer). As a result, the North Atlantic experiences
alternating decades long (20 to 30 year periods or even longer) of above
normal or below normal hurricane seasons. NOAA research shows that the
tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane
activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming.


And a study in Science a few months ago found that while the number of storms
wasn't up, the intensity was.

And we've never gone to Greek names before, much less Epsilon.



"Roger Coppock" wrote in message
roups.com...
Atlantic TS Epsilon Is About a 1 in 80,000 Year Event!!!!!

Tropical storm Epsilon, number 29, is now active in the Atlantic:


http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...tropsystems&ye
ar=&region=&hwvstormid=29&alt=tropsystempage&hwvme tric=


http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...tropsystems&al
t=tropallsystems&hwvmetric=

If one controls for the increasing capability to observe
tropical storms over the last 126 Atlantic hurricane seasons,
this year's 29 Atlantic storms are about a 1 in 80,000 event!

If one ignores the 4 storms per year per century growth in
counted storms, this year's 29 storms is a 1 in 1,700,000
event. I won't use this, because it is misleading. I'll
leave the lying and exaggeration to the Carbon industry
lobbyists. They are the experts at that.

Storms
[1] 11 7 6 4 4 8 12 19 9 9 4 11 9 12 7
[16] 6 7 6 11 9 7 12 5 10 5 5 11 5 10 11
[31] 5 6 7 6 1 5 14 3 5 3 4 6 4 7 8
[46] 2 11 7 6 3 2 9 11 21 11 6 16 9 8 5
[61] 8 6 10 10 11 11 6 9 9 13 13 10 7 14 11
[76] 12 8 8 10 11 7 11 5 9 12 6 11 8 8 15
[91] 10 13 7 8 11 9 10 6 12 9 11 12 6 4 13
[106] 11 6 7 12 11 14 8 7 8 7 19 13 8 14 12
[121] 15 15 12 16 15 29

The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm
Currently, these data are preliminary and dated Friday,
July 15, 2005 9:00PM.

sort(Storms)
[1] 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
[16] 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
[31] 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
[46] 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
[61] 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
[76] 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
[91] 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
[106] 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15
[121] 16 16 19 19 21 29

Storms[126]
[1] 29
mean(Storms)
[1] 9.142857
sd(Storms)
[1] 4.086493

fitted.model

Call:
lm(formula = Storms ~ Year, data = aframe)

Coefficients:
(Intercept) Year
-70.80045 0.04115


residuals(fitted.model)[126]
126
17.28496

residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)
126
4.229779

pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms))
126
0.9999883

# Yes, except for this year's extreme and a few others,
# the residuals of the "Storms" data are normally
# distributed. A normal quartile-quartile plot shows a
# straight line, confirming this.

1/(1-pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)))
126
85498.98
# Which rounds to 1 in 80,000.

# NOTE:
# to remove any bias due to increasing capability to observe
# hurricanes, I have used the current value of the trendline
# and not the mean as a baseline. Thus, the call to the
# residual here. Had I used the mean as a base line the
# result would have been 1 in 1,700,000. I'll leave the
# lying and exaggeration to the fossil fools.

pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms))
[1] 0.9999994
1/(1-pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms)))
[1] 1697027

Roger Coppock wrote:
Atlantic TS Epsilon Is About a 1 in 80,000 Year Event!!!!!

Helping Roger be consistent

As Roger would say: "The Atlantic basin is not the globe."

Hmmm.....

Epsilon formed and persisted in fairly cold waters (around 24C),
for a tropical cyclone.

It may well be that shear has been more significant than temperatures
in this extraordinary year.

Roger Coppock wrote:
Atlantic TS Epsilon Is About a 1 in 80,000 Year Event!!!!!

Tropical storm Epsilon, number 29, is now active in the Atlantic:

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...age&hwvmetric=

http://www.wxforecasts.com/ameriwx/a...ems&hwvmetric=

If one controls for the increasing capability to observe
tropical storms over the last 126 Atlantic hurricane seasons,
this year's 29 Atlantic storms are about a 1 in 80,000 event!

If one ignores the 4 storms per year per century growth in
counted storms, this year's 29 storms is a 1 in 1,700,000
event. I won't use this, because it is misleading. I'll
leave the lying and exaggeration to the Carbon industry
lobbyists. They are the experts at that.


Storms

[1] 11 7 6 4 4 8 12 19 9 9 4 11 9 12 7
[16] 6 7 6 11 9 7 12 5 10 5 5 11 5 10 11
[31] 5 6 7 6 1 5 14 3 5 3 4 6 4 7 8
[46] 2 11 7 6 3 2 9 11 21 11 6 16 9 8 5
[61] 8 6 10 10 11 11 6 9 9 13 13 10 7 14 11
[76] 12 8 8 10 11 7 11 5 9 12 6 11 8 8 15
[91] 10 13 7 8 11 9 10 6 12 9 11 12 6 4 13
[106] 11 6 7 12 11 14 8 7 8 7 19 13 8 14 12
[121] 15 15 12 16 15 29

The data are from the NOAA web page given at this URL:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/...arandStorm.htm
Currently, these data are preliminary and dated Friday,
July 15, 2005 9:00PM.


sort(Storms)

[1] 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
[16] 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
[31] 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
[46] 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
[61] 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
[76] 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
[91] 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
[106] 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15
[121] 16 16 19 19 21 29


Storms[126]

[1] 29

mean(Storms)

[1] 9.142857

sd(Storms)

[1] 4.086493

fitted.model


Call:
lm(formula = Storms ~ Year, data = aframe)

Coefficients:
(Intercept) Year
-70.80045 0.04115


residuals(fitted.model)[126]

126
17.28496

residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)

126
4.229779

pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms))

126
0.9999883

# Yes, except for this year's extreme and a few others,
# the residuals of the "Storms" data are normally
# distributed. A normal quartile-quartile plot shows a
# straight line, confirming this.

1/(1-pnorm(residuals(fitted.model)[126]/sd(Storms)))

126
85498.98

# Which rounds to 1 in 80,000.

# NOTE:
# to remove any bias due to increasing capability to observe
# hurricanes, I have used the current value of the trendline
# and not the mean as a baseline. Thus, the call to the
# residual here. Had I used the mean as a base line the
# result would have been 1 in 1,700,000. I'll leave the
# lying and exaggeration to the fossil fools.

pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms))

[1] 0.9999994

1/(1-pnorm((Storms[126]-mean(Storms))/sd(Storms)))

[1] 1697027

Yes, you are right Scott. TS Epsilon, BY ITSELF,
is not a 1 in 80K event. I had to both announce TS
Epsilon and the 1 in 80K calculation in the same
single headline. I could have worded it better.