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#61
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On Sun, 12 Nov 2006 11:09:44 -0500, john fernbach
wrote: Uh - what about the economic analysis that Stern has offered, folks? Because so far it seems that most responses to the original post about the Stern Report, as per above, have involved either (A) A mindless exchange of insults resembling "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" [Shakespeare], OR that is genetic. so no i dont give that any drecit (B) Fervent debate over the SCIENCE of global climate, which apparently is not the main focus of what Stern wrote. A modest question: Has anybody in here read actually what the Stern report concludes about the ECONOMICS of climate change and efforts to slow, stop, or adjust to it? If so, do you care to share some of that ECONOMIC analysis with us? I confess I haven't read the report yet, either, so this is not a trick question. But if we're arguing over a 700 page report by an economist, it's probably a good idea to be examining his economic analysis. Just for starters. Not whether he completely took into account the latest wrinkle in climate science. And certainly not whether "Bawana" or "CO2 Storms from Hell" or "Claudius Denk" is this group's biggest doo-doo head. -------- "The devil has got a slippery shoe If you don't watch out, he'll put it on you -- Keep your eyes on the prize, hold on." -- American civil rights movement hymn, 1960s |
#62
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In message , Orator
writes Orator wrote: John Beardmore wrote: Isn't it interesting to see the AWG mob dared not touch this at all. :-) To be fair, I don't suppose most people will have had time or inclination to read it in detail if at all. While we may be critical of naive attempts to rubbish it, none of us are hear either to defend, promote or analyse it, and I doubt any of us have seen any of the calculations which might underpin its statements or conclusions. Cheers, J/. -- John Beardmore |
#63
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On Sun, 12 Nov 2006 10:38:57 +0000, John Beardmore
wrote: If the temperature of the sun increases, the rate at which energy radiates away from this hotter object increases. Yes. And the extent of this is ? Quite substantial: http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/irradiance.gif http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/p...olar_variabili ty/lean2000_irradiance.txt Doesn't look like a huge increase, though I grant it may make some difference. 1.5-2 W/m^2 since about 1910, depending on whose data you use. http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/br...ll_03/fig2.gif BTW, the sun makes _all_ differences (the sun being the source of energy). What AGWers seem to claim is that the solar flux variations will have no real effect on the largest amplifier: water vapor (and water's positive feedback loop). The contributions of water vapor are very poorly understood, so claiming that we understand the various atmospheric interactions extremely well is nonsense (as is the claim that "we can reject water vapor as a main driver"). Are you asserting that climate modellers haven't taken this into account ? http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig6-8.htm, figure C. Indicates that they use _perhaps_ as high as 0.2 w/m^2, but probably less than that (assuming they arrived at this number by averaging this over the Earth's surface, that's still only 0.8 W/m^2 flux increase from the sun, which they may have folded into their models). If they didn't average to arrive at this result, then they even more grossly underestimated the flux. And we note that these "models" are largely curve fits, and not ab initio calculations... "The conclusion that can be drawn from all of this is that 50 years is the absolute minimum sea level record length that should be considered in an analysis of global sea level rise or acceleration from tide gauge data alone." This may be true in some sense, but it stands to reason that if the planet warms, the ocean will expand, so there is more than one approach to considering this issue. People have calculated thermal expansion effects for the ocean. It's not as much as you might think -- you can compare that variation to natural variations such as tidal activity, and storm surge. The problem with measuring "sea level" is not dissimilar to measuring a global "average temperature". By what method do you choose to average these data? Weighted by latitude? Weighted for population? Weighted for area? Unweighted?... What determines an "area of interest"? Further there does seem to be real world experience of more frequent and extreme tides from sites like the Thames Barrage which is now required to operate to protect London much more frequently than it was thirty or so years ago. Thirty years is nothing, on the time scales of natural variation. Recall that the sunspot period averages about 11 years. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml And there are much longer cycles which occur in the solar activity. While there may be "low-frequency fluctuations of sea level" of considerable complexity, there seems no reason to assume that the warming of the planet isn't contributing as well. Other than Occam's Razor. There is no doubt that human action results in "changes" on the Earth's surface. Heat islands, concrete, blacktop, growing/harvesting crops, clear cutting... But even YOUR breathing, your water use, your home heating, and your computer use contribute (and yet we can see that you are still using your computer, and burning electricity)... The question is, what is the magnitude of these contributions (particularly compared to natural variations)? Small changes are inevitable, so live with it. Not all changes are harmful. The second question is, will any changes resulting from these contributions, be deleterious? If it's not harmful, why do you care? Which leads to the third question, how would you mitigate them, if you determine that they are both anthropogenic and harmful -- or more correctly, how would you mitigate those changes without murdering a billion people or so... (and yes, if you take an action -- such as shutting off heat, food, water, etc -- that results in the "natural death" of billions, it is _murder_). The US and a couple other "bread baskets" feed much of the world. Sure, we could stop burning fuel to produce those crops. And/or we could convert all those crops to alternative fuels. And, of course, we simply could let the world starve... Is that the desired solution? We presume that Parker is prepared to support this claim with data... A trivial google search finds Nice, but Parker's claims are in general based on nothing at all. Hmmm... Not that I'd noticed, but I guess that sort of bickering can stay between you and him. Then you shouldn't step in the middle of it... ![]() U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml Doesn't seem to show an increase in hurricane frequency... What about intensity ? That was also in the table. An average of 6.0 major hurricanes per decade, with a high of 10 and low of 1. I have merely presented the data as it was reported. But do note, that "proving" anthropogenic causes for observed variations requires more than simply stating "it's different than it was in the past". Neither does correlation prove causality. It is unclear how the various natural forcings contribute to these weather variations. There are people who dabble in predictions: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/ Retief |
#64
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Retief LIES! RETIEF GOT CAUGHT!!!
Retief wrote: On Sun, 12 Nov 2006 10:38:57 +0000, John Beardmore wrote: If the temperature of the sun increases, the rate at which energy radiates away from this hotter object increases. Yes. And the extent of this is ? Quite substantial: http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/irradiance.gif http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/p...olar_variabili ty/lean2000_irradiance.txt Doesn't look like a huge increase, though I grant it may make some difference. Retief LIES! RETIEF GOT CAUGHT!!! 1.5-2 W/m^2 since about 1910, depending on whose data you use. http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/br...ll_03/fig2.gif The 1910 data petered out after a few decades. The most recent data is ONLY for the minima of the last two solar cycles, two years out of 22 years. The increase at those two years, seperated by eleven years of no increase, is 2 watts in outer space at the top of the atmosphere. Like all the rest of the suns radiation those two watts get tithed on their way inbound through the atmosphere. If either of both of those two years had a major Pinatubo volcano eruption than zero of that extra energy made it down to the ground. Retief LIES! RETIEF GOT CAUGHT!!! How about RETIEF digging up supporting documentation on those TWO YEARS he claims had increased radiation of two watts up in space? The burden is on him to support HIS THESIS. BTW, the sun makes _all_ differences (the sun being the source of energy). NO **** Sherlock. Does Bush know yet? What AGWers seem to claim is that the solar flux variations will have no real effect on the largest amplifier: water vapor (and water's positive feedback loop). It has a big effect -- it self-cancels in a big way ending up in net zero difference. That's your BIG EFFECT -- ZERO. The burden of proof is on Retief the chronic liar to produce evidence supporting his quackery. Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! The contributions of water vapor are very poorly understood, Retief LIES! RETIEF GOT CAUGHT!!! You can stop right there. You admit you have a poor understanding. Everything else below about water vapor is therefore bull****. Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! so claiming that we understand the various atmospheric interactions extremely well is nonsense (as is the claim that "we can reject water vapor as a main driver"). Retief LIES! RETIEF GOT CAUGHT!!! Retief does understand the subject. He can't possibly evaluate what other's know who do indeed understand the subject. Retief LIES! RETIEF GOT CAUGHT!!! Are you asserting that climate modellers haven't taken this into account ? http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig6-8.htm, figure C. Indicates that they use _perhaps_ as high as 0.2 w/m^2, but probably less than that (assuming they arrived at this number by averaging this over the Earth's surface, that's still only 0.8 W/m^2 flux increase from the sun, which they may have folded into their models). If they didn't average to arrive at this result, then they even more grossly underestimated the flux. They understand the subject that you admitted above you cannot understand. You are in no position to criticise until you improve your own understanding. Leave the science to the pros and go back to your comic books. And we note that these "models" are largely curve fits, and not ab initio calculations... Retief LIES! RETIEF GOT CAUGHT!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Quack! Quack! Quack!!! Retief |
#65
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In article ,
Retief wrote: On Sun, 12 Nov 2006 10:38:57 +0000, John Beardmore wrote: If the temperature of the sun increases, the rate at which energy radiates away from this hotter object increases. Yes. And the extent of this is ? Quite substantial: http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/irradiance.gif http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/p...olar_variabili ty/lean2000_irradiance.txt Doesn't look like a huge increase, though I grant it may make some difference. 1.5-2 W/m^2 since about 1910, depending on whose data you use. "Regardless of any discussion about solar irradiance in past centuries, the sunspot record and neutron monitor data (which can be compared with radionuclide records) show that solar activity has not increased since the 1950s and is therefore unlikely to be able to explain the recent warming." http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...n-hit-record-h ighs-over-the-last-few-decades/ http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/br...ll_03/fig2.gif BTW, the sun makes _all_ differences (the sun being the source of energy). What AGWers seem to claim is that the solar flux variations will have no real effect on the largest amplifier: water vapor (and water's positive feedback loop). The contributions of water vapor are very poorly understood, so claiming that we understand the various atmospheric interactions extremely well is nonsense (as is the claim that "we can reject water vapor as a main driver"). Are you asserting that climate modellers haven't taken this into account ? http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig6-8.htm, figure C. Indicates that they use _perhaps_ as high as 0.2 w/m^2, but probably less than that (assuming they arrived at this number by averaging this over the Earth's surface, that's still only 0.8 W/m^2 flux increase from the sun, which they may have folded into their models). If they didn't average to arrive at this result, then they even more grossly underestimated the flux. And we note that these "models" are largely curve fits, and not ab initio calculations... "The conclusion that can be drawn from all of this is that 50 years is the absolute minimum sea level record length that should be considered in an analysis of global sea level rise or acceleration from tide gauge data alone." This may be true in some sense, but it stands to reason that if the planet warms, the ocean will expand, so there is more than one approach to considering this issue. People have calculated thermal expansion effects for the ocean. It's not as much as you might think -- you can compare that variation to natural variations such as tidal activity, and storm surge. The problem with measuring "sea level" is not dissimilar to measuring a global "average temperature". By what method do you choose to average these data? Weighted by latitude? Weighted for population? Weighted for area? Unweighted?... What determines an "area of interest"? Further there does seem to be real world experience of more frequent and extreme tides from sites like the Thames Barrage which is now required to operate to protect London much more frequently than it was thirty or so years ago. Thirty years is nothing, on the time scales of natural variation. Recall that the sunspot period averages about 11 years. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml And there are much longer cycles which occur in the solar activity. While there may be "low-frequency fluctuations of sea level" of considerable complexity, there seems no reason to assume that the warming of the planet isn't contributing as well. Other than Occam's Razor. There is no doubt that human action results in "changes" on the Earth's surface. Heat islands, concrete, blacktop, growing/harvesting crops, clear cutting... But even YOUR breathing, your water use, your home heating, and your computer use contribute (and yet we can see that you are still using your computer, and burning electricity)... The question is, what is the magnitude of these contributions (particularly compared to natural variations)? Small changes are inevitable, so live with it. Not all changes are harmful. The second question is, will any changes resulting from these contributions, be deleterious? If it's not harmful, why do you care? Which leads to the third question, how would you mitigate them, if you determine that they are both anthropogenic and harmful -- or more correctly, how would you mitigate those changes without murdering a billion people or so... (and yes, if you take an action -- such as shutting off heat, food, water, etc -- that results in the "natural death" of billions, it is _murder_). The US and a couple other "bread baskets" feed much of the world. Sure, we could stop burning fuel to produce those crops. And/or we could convert all those crops to alternative fuels. And, of course, we simply could let the world starve... Is that the desired solution? We presume that Parker is prepared to support this claim with data... A trivial google search finds Nice, but Parker's claims are in general based on nothing at all. Hmmm... Not that I'd noticed, but I guess that sort of bickering can stay between you and him. Then you shouldn't step in the middle of it... ![]() U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml Doesn't seem to show an increase in hurricane frequency... What about intensity ? That was also in the table. An average of 6.0 major hurricanes per decade, with a high of 10 and low of 1. I have merely presented the data as it was reported. But do note, that "proving" anthropogenic causes for observed variations requires more than simply stating "it's different than it was in the past". Neither does correlation prove causality. It is unclear how the various natural forcings contribute to these weather variations. There are people who dabble in predictions: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/ Retief |
#66
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Lloyd - thanks for sharing! Seriously. BTW - have you read the Stern
Report? If so, could you recap some of the main points for us here? It seems that most of the posts in this string are inviting the reader to consider everything in the world except for the Stern Report's conclusions. Has anybody here read the thing? Or are we just arguing about the usual stuff? -------------------------- Lloyd Parker wrote: In article , Retief wrote: On Sun, 12 Nov 2006 10:38:57 +0000, John Beardmore wrote: If the temperature of the sun increases, the rate at which energy radiates away from this hotter object increases. Yes. And the extent of this is ? Quite substantial: http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/irradiance.gif http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/p...olar_variabili ty/lean2000_irradiance.txt Doesn't look like a huge increase, though I grant it may make some difference. 1.5-2 W/m^2 since about 1910, depending on whose data you use. "Regardless of any discussion about solar irradiance in past centuries, the sunspot record and neutron monitor data (which can be compared with radionuclide records) show that solar activity has not increased since the 1950s and is therefore unlikely to be able to explain the recent warming." http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...n-hit-record-h ighs-over-the-last-few-decades/ http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/br...ll_03/fig2.gif BTW, the sun makes _all_ differences (the sun being the source of energy). What AGWers seem to claim is that the solar flux variations will have no real effect on the largest amplifier: water vapor (and water's positive feedback loop). The contributions of water vapor are very poorly understood, so claiming that we understand the various atmospheric interactions extremely well is nonsense (as is the claim that "we can reject water vapor as a main driver"). Are you asserting that climate modellers haven't taken this into account ? http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig6-8.htm, figure C. Indicates that they use _perhaps_ as high as 0.2 w/m^2, but probably less than that (assuming they arrived at this number by averaging this over the Earth's surface, that's still only 0.8 W/m^2 flux increase from the sun, which they may have folded into their models). If they didn't average to arrive at this result, then they even more grossly underestimated the flux. And we note that these "models" are largely curve fits, and not ab initio calculations... "The conclusion that can be drawn from all of this is that 50 years is the absolute minimum sea level record length that should be considered in an analysis of global sea level rise or acceleration from tide gauge data alone." This may be true in some sense, but it stands to reason that if the planet warms, the ocean will expand, so there is more than one approach to considering this issue. People have calculated thermal expansion effects for the ocean. It's not as much as you might think -- you can compare that variation to natural variations such as tidal activity, and storm surge. The problem with measuring "sea level" is not dissimilar to measuring a global "average temperature". By what method do you choose to average these data? Weighted by latitude? Weighted for population? Weighted for area? Unweighted?... What determines an "area of interest"? Further there does seem to be real world experience of more frequent and extreme tides from sites like the Thames Barrage which is now required to operate to protect London much more frequently than it was thirty or so years ago. Thirty years is nothing, on the time scales of natural variation. Recall that the sunspot period averages about 11 years. http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml And there are much longer cycles which occur in the solar activity. While there may be "low-frequency fluctuations of sea level" of considerable complexity, there seems no reason to assume that the warming of the planet isn't contributing as well. Other than Occam's Razor. There is no doubt that human action results in "changes" on the Earth's surface. Heat islands, concrete, blacktop, growing/harvesting crops, clear cutting... But even YOUR breathing, your water use, your home heating, and your computer use contribute (and yet we can see that you are still using your computer, and burning electricity)... The question is, what is the magnitude of these contributions (particularly compared to natural variations)? Small changes are inevitable, so live with it. Not all changes are harmful. The second question is, will any changes resulting from these contributions, be deleterious? If it's not harmful, why do you care? Which leads to the third question, how would you mitigate them, if you determine that they are both anthropogenic and harmful -- or more correctly, how would you mitigate those changes without murdering a billion people or so... (and yes, if you take an action -- such as shutting off heat, food, water, etc -- that results in the "natural death" of billions, it is _murder_). The US and a couple other "bread baskets" feed much of the world. Sure, we could stop burning fuel to produce those crops. And/or we could convert all those crops to alternative fuels. And, of course, we simply could let the world starve... Is that the desired solution? We presume that Parker is prepared to support this claim with data... A trivial google search finds Nice, but Parker's claims are in general based on nothing at all. Hmmm... Not that I'd noticed, but I guess that sort of bickering can stay between you and him. Then you shouldn't step in the middle of it... ![]() U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml Doesn't seem to show an increase in hurricane frequency... What about intensity ? That was also in the table. An average of 6.0 major hurricanes per decade, with a high of 10 and low of 1. I have merely presented the data as it was reported. But do note, that "proving" anthropogenic causes for observed variations requires more than simply stating "it's different than it was in the past". Neither does correlation prove causality. It is unclear how the various natural forcings contribute to these weather variations. There are people who dabble in predictions: http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/ Retief |
#67
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john fernbach wrote:
Uh - what about the economic analysis that Stern has offered, folks? Because so far it seems that most responses to the original post about the Stern Report, as per above, have involved either (A) A mindless exchange of insults resembling "a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing" [Shakespeare], OR (B) Fervent debate over the SCIENCE of global climate, which apparently is not the main focus of what Stern wrote. A modest question: Has anybody in here read actually what the Stern report concludes about the ECONOMICS of climate change and efforts to slow, stop, or adjust to it? If so, do you care to share some of that ECONOMIC analysis with us? I confess I haven't read the report yet, either, so this is not a trick question. But if we're arguing over a 700 page report by an economist, it's probably a good idea to be examining his economic analysis. Just for starters. I have made the observation that many economists have raised their eyebrows at the conclusion by Stern - meaning they too believe Stern to be hysterical. |
#68
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![]() Orator wrote: I have made the observation that many economists have raised their eyebrows at the conclusion by Stern - meaning they too believe Stern to be hysterical. Orator - two points, briefly. 1. You're not really answering my question, quite. Have YOU read the Stern report, and can YOU tell us a little of what's in it, for good or evil? 2. You say "many economists" have raised their eyebrows at Stern's conclusion. Can you cite us some of these "many" economists? Can you cite their conclusions and/or criticisms? Not trying to be picky here, though it looks like we're on different sides of the AGW issue. I think your side is in total denial of reality, actually - that you're crazier than bedbugs But who cares, because most of us knew the two sides disagreed on the bigger AGW issue before Stern published anything. What I'm asking is if anyone knows anything in any detail about Stern's economic conclusions. Or the report's methodology, for that matter. |
#70
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![]() Retief wrote: On Mon, 13 Nov 06 11:13:12 GMT, (Lloyd Parker) wrote: 1.5-2 W/m^2 since about 1910, depending on whose data you use. "Regardless of any discussion about solar irradiance in past centuries, the sunspot record and neutron monitor data (which can be compared with radionuclide records) show that solar activity has not increased since the 1950s and is therefore unlikely to be able to explain the recent warming." Then clearly, by this same argument, CO2 is not the cause of warming, Clearly LYING RETIEF is a jerk and turd. as: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/db1009/inputs/co2-sens.dat, shows that the CO2 concentration increased from 278 ppm (~1770), to 298 ppm by 1910, however the temperature did NOTHING during this period...: The Earth energy system did many things during this period of miniscule investments in science and global monitoring. Unfortunately data uncollected then cannot be resurrected now. We know that 1933 was the all time peak for cyclones in the Atlantic, a record which went unbroken until 2005. We know there was extreme heatwaves in the North American Continent in the mid 1930s. Nobody even bothered to check how much ice was melting. Nobody kept track of asian cyclones or southern hemisphere cyclones. Energy may have many forms -- it is not restricted to heat alone. The records which do exist show a continuous upwards trend in cyclones in the places where records were kept. Where temperature records were kept there is continuous trends towards higher temperatures. It is plain LYING WRONG to state that NOTHING happened. The natural sinks had surplus capacities which were getting filled. That was happening. There were vastly more forests worldwide to sop up CO2. That was happening. The CO2 records before the 1950s were uncorrected for local biases. The lanscapes and industry and even fuels have changed. Gasoline was hardly used in 1910. It is now impossible to reconstruct the world of 1910 and take modern precision measurements. Scientific instruments were made od sticks and mud in 1910. They didn't even have radio or vacuum tubes in 1910. Clearly LYING RETIEF is a jerk and turd. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:I...ure_Record.png If CO2 was the cause of the warming, it clearly would have warmed by this time... Clearly LYING RETIEF is a jerk and turd. It was energizing. The term warming is inaccurate and deceptive. CO2 holds in ENERGY, which is popularly equated to heat, but also manifests as winds and ice melting. Before the IGY International Geophysical Year in 1959 most of the data we take for granted did not exist. The US government didn't bother to keep records of tornadoes before 1950. People didn't even know there were tectonic plates until the 1950s. The arguments that RETIEF uses to blast Mann can be applied to his own sources. The furthe back you go the less reliable are the "records", or the more care is required in understanding the flaws in the record procedures. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php...n-hit-record-h ighs-over-the-last-few-decades/ Realclimate.org is not a refereed scientific journal, Lloyd... Didn't you recently demand that people cite scientific journals? Retief Clearly LYING RETIEF is a jerk and turd. http://www.realclimate.org%2Findex.p...y8-BuONX-ofdng http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309102251/html Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (2006) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309102251/html/1.html http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309102251/html/3.html http://darwin.nap.edu/books/0309102251/html/4.html |
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