This week's warm spell - I registered 22c again today - reminded me of a
similar spell in 1978 when I recorded max of 24c on both the 11th and 12th.
In that year the weather turned foggy for the next 2 days although the
afternoons were sunny but the max was down to 16c on the14th. In 1978, the
November which followed was exceptionally mild until the 24th and it looked
as the the month was heading to be the warmest on record, but then a cold
northerly set in and there were sharp frosts in the final week.
Going back a bit further, I see from my weather diary for 1949 that I
recorded lunch - time readings above 21c almost every day until the 15th on
a thermometer fixed to the north wall of the house. That year , autumn
arrived on the 26th; I had a temperature of 20c on the 25th, at breakfast
time on the 26th it was 14.5c, the cold front went through in the morning
with heavy rain, and by lunchtime the thermometer reading was 9c. The first
air frost of the season followed 2 days later.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m

Peter Clarke wrote in message
...
This week's warm spell - I registered 22c again today - reminded me of a
similar spell in 1978 when I recorded max of 24c on both the 11th and
12th.
In that year the weather turned foggy for the next 2 days although the
afternoons were sunny but the max was down to 16c on the14th. In 1978, the
November which followed was exceptionally mild until the 24th and it
looked
as the the month was heading to be the warmest on record, but then a cold
northerly set in and there were sharp frosts in the final week.
Going back a bit further, I see from my weather diary for 1949 that I
recorded lunch - time readings above 21c almost every day until the 15th
on
a thermometer fixed to the north wall of the house. That year , autumn
arrived on the 26th; I had a temperature of 20c on the 25th, at breakfast
time on the 26th it was 14.5c, the cold front went through in the morning
with heavy rain, and by lunchtime the thermometer reading was 9c. The
first
air frost of the season followed 2 days later.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m


Hi, Peter,

Very similar in October 1962 with an abrupt change to northerlies and frost
at the end of the month in my weather diary (Scarborough at the time). Not
that I want to excite the snow hopers!

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook
Copley (253m, 830ft) & Copley Lead Mill (218m, 715ft)
5 miles north of Barnard Castle, County Durham.
(All times GMT)
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley

Ken Cook wrote:
Peter Clarke wrote in message
...

This week's warm spell - I registered 22c again today - reminded me of a
similar spell in 1978 when I recorded max of 24c on both the 11th and

12th.

In that year the weather turned foggy for the next 2 days although the
afternoons were sunny but the max was down to 16c on the14th. In 1978, the
November which followed was exceptionally mild until the 24th and it

looked

as the the month was heading to be the warmest on record, but then a cold
northerly set in and there were sharp frosts in the final week.
Going back a bit further, I see from my weather diary for 1949 that I
recorded lunch - time readings above 21c almost every day until the 15th

on

a thermometer fixed to the north wall of the house. That year , autumn
arrived on the 26th; I had a temperature of 20c on the 25th, at breakfast
time on the 26th it was 14.5c, the cold front went through in the morning
with heavy rain, and by lunchtime the thermometer reading was 9c. The

first

air frost of the season followed 2 days later.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m



Hi, Peter,

Very similar in October 1962 with an abrupt change to northerlies and frost
at the end of the month in my weather diary (Scarborough at the time). Not
that I want to excite the snow hopers!

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook
Copley (253m, 830ft) & Copley Lead Mill (218m, 715ft)
5 miles north of Barnard Castle, County Durham.
(All times GMT)
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley








I was looking at the charts for October 1962 and there are similarities,
although the high(s) were more over the UK, whereas this year they've
been further east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html

--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

Keith (Southend) wrote:
Ken Cook wrote:

Peter Clarke wrote in message
...

This week's warm spell - I registered 22c again today - reminded me of a
similar spell in 1978 when I recorded max of 24c on both the 11th and


12th.

In that year the weather turned foggy for the next 2 days although the
afternoons were sunny but the max was down to 16c on the14th. In
1978, the
November which followed was exceptionally mild until the 24th and it


looked

as the the month was heading to be the warmest on record, but then a
cold
northerly set in and there were sharp frosts in the final week.
Going back a bit further, I see from my weather diary for 1949 that I
recorded lunch - time readings above 21c almost every day until the
15th


on

a thermometer fixed to the north wall of the house. That year , autumn
arrived on the 26th; I had a temperature of 20c on the 25th, at
breakfast
time on the 26th it was 14.5c, the cold front went through in the
morning
with heavy rain, and by lunchtime the thermometer reading was 9c. The


first

air frost of the season followed 2 days later.

Peter Clarke
Ewell, Epsom 55m




Hi, Peter,

Very similar in October 1962 with an abrupt change to northerlies and
frost
at the end of the month in my weather diary (Scarborough at the time).
Not
that I want to excite the snow hopers!

Best wishes,

--
Ken Cook
Copley (253m, 830ft) & Copley Lead Mill (218m, 715ft)
5 miles north of Barnard Castle, County Durham.
(All times GMT)
http://mysite.wanadoo-members.co.uk/copley








I was looking at the charts for October 1962 and there are similarities,
although the high(s) were more over the UK, whereas this year they've
been further east.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html


Infact October 1978 looks very similar.

--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

On Tue, 11 Oct 2005 17:17:06 +0100, "Ken Cook"
wrote:

Very similar in October 1962 with an abrupt change to northerlies and frost
at the end of the month in my weather diary (Scarborough at the time). Not
that I want to excite the snow hopers!

damien
MY DREAMS! MY DREAMS!
/damien

Oh dear Woody,you've gone and done it now,he will
come up from the grave to haunt us all over again......

RonB
"Woody" wrote in message
...
On Tue, 11 Oct 2005 17:17:06 +0100, "Ken Cook"
wrote:

Very similar in October 1962 with an abrupt change to northerlies and
frost
at the end of the month in my weather diary (Scarborough at the time). Not
that I want to excite the snow hopers!

damien
MY DREAMS! MY DREAMS!
/damien

Ken Cook wrote:



Hi, Peter,

Very similar in October 1962 with an abrupt change to northerlies and
frost at the end of the month in my weather diary (Scarborough at the
time). Not that I want to excite the snow hopers!

Best wishes,


October 1969 had this sort of setup for most of month. High to the east and
low to the west for the most part with southerlies up from the Sahara. Warm
and sunny with 0.5mm rain at Bracknell. Long-range F/C went for a change of
type to northerlies for November with snow and frost. It was spot on.


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

Graham P Davis wrote:
Ken Cook wrote:



Hi, Peter,

Very similar in October 1962 with an abrupt change to northerlies and
frost at the end of the month in my weather diary (Scarborough at the
time). Not that I want to excite the snow hopers!

Best wishes,



October 1969 had this sort of setup for most of month. High to the east and
low to the west for the most part with southerlies up from the Sahara. Warm
and sunny with 0.5mm rain at Bracknell. Long-range F/C went for a change of
type to northerlies for November with snow and frost. It was spot on.



I thought I'd look at the following winter (Southend-on-Sea records)
*Credits to John Benford and Bob Pritchard*.

Nov 1969 - Last two days max temp of 0.6°c
Dec 1969 - Generally cold, with some snow.
Jan 1970 - Cold first week, some snow, generally mixed after that.
Feb 1970 - Cold mid-month, heavy snow 12th
Mar 1970 - Cold first two weeks. Some heavy snow.

What I do find interesting is that every year that has been mentioned
with similar Octobers seem to be followed by colder winters. I'm sure
someone can come up with one which throws that theroy out the window ?

That surprised me, I thought 1970 was a mild winter, I was wrong.

It'll all end in tears you know.
--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
What I do find interesting is that every year that has been mentioned
with similar Octobers seem to be followed by colder winters. I'm sure
someone can come up with one which throws that theroy out the window ?

That surprised me, I thought 1970 was a mild winter, I was wrong.

It'll all end in tears you know.
--
Keith (Southend)

'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net

Not sure how similar October 2001 was to the present month for you Keith?
But I recall it was very mild countrywide - and the following winter was
very mild, save for December.

I should add that in this part of the country there's certainly been no warm
days and very little sunshine so far, less than 15 hours sunshine from the
first 11 days. Early to judge, but if the rest of the month were similar
then it's more comparable with conditions in 1965, 1975 and 1983 here. No
outstanding pattern in the winters that followed those Octobers.
I really don't believe October weather is a pointer to the following winter,
and the threads so far may merely be showing up local coincidences.
Paul Bartlett (a bit of an expert on these matters) says cold, wet Novembers
are a relaible precursor to hard winters - I'm slightly more inclined to
believe this may be valid.

Alex

Keith (Southend) wrote:



That surprised me, I thought 1970 was a mild winter, I was wrong.


1970/71 was a mild winter, first of a few. Perhaps you were thinking of
that. In the early 70s, although the winters were mild, the springs were
very cold.

--
Graham Davis
Bracknell