Tonights low shown to have one of these features developing.
I'm sure the experts can explain why bent back occlusions are particularly
nasty?
I remember one featured greatly in giving this area 100mph+ gusts on Boxing
night 1998.
The GFS model predicts an overland storm force 10 uncomfortably close to
this location in the early morning.
The track is rather crucial mind you, and I guess it could still go a bit
north or a little bit south.
Gusts of 90mph can't be out of the question either I'd imagine?
Alex.


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Conditions in Wishaw @ 7:40am , 7/1/05
Temperature 11.3 °C. Dew point 10.8 ºC. 97.0 %RH
Mean wind speed 23 mph from the South West . Gusting to 39 mph.
Remarks; Heavy Rain , 0.6 mm precipitation in the past hour.
Cloud cover: Overcast
MSLP 999.3 mb, Rising .
Today's Max. 11.3 °C at 7:31am .
Today's min. 10.4 °C at 1:14am .
Today's rain 7.6 mm
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº

May turn to snow before it moves away aswell !

Paul C
Brampton

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...
Tonights low shown to have one of these features developing.
I'm sure the experts can explain why bent back occlusions are particularly
nasty?
I remember one featured greatly in giving this area 100mph+ gusts on
Boxing
night 1998.
The GFS model predicts an overland storm force 10 uncomfortably close to
this location in the early morning.
The track is rather crucial mind you, and I guess it could still go a bit
north or a little bit south.
Gusts of 90mph can't be out of the question either I'd imagine?
Alex.


ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Conditions in Wishaw @ 7:40am , 7/1/05
Temperature 11.3 °C. Dew point 10.8 ºC. 97.0 %RH
Mean wind speed 23 mph from the South West . Gusting to 39 mph.
Remarks; Heavy Rain , 0.6 mm precipitation in the past hour.
Cloud cover: Overcast
MSLP 999.3 mb, Rising .
Today's Max. 11.3 °C at 7:31am .
Today's min. 10.4 °C at 1:14am .
Today's rain 7.6 mm
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº

There is a real risk of a =sting jet= scenario with a quickly developing or
rapidly developing low crossing the UK underneath a powerful 150Knt Jet.
Southern Scotland is at risk of seeing the upper winds dragged down as the
low exits (80Knts gusts are just about possible) Track and degree of
development will be crucial. (GFS has it slightly shallower and slightly
further south for instance) The difference may not sound great but it will
make a huge difference as to whether the central lowlands are under the
possible "sting"
PB

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in
:

Gusts of 90mph can't be out of the question either I'd imagine?

"Batten down the hatches" Alex as I'm sure they'll tell you to do.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the "sting jet" region pass over the Edinburgh
area, which would be interesting.

Cheers
Rich

I'll Batten down the hatches and tie down the greenhouse too Richard.
As far as I can tell from the latest GFS run, the lows southern flank does
indeed look as though it will affect the central lowlands. Winds possibly
being further enhanced by a funneling effect? Judging by the warnings on
the Met office site however, the strongest winds are saved for the far north
of England. So perhaps still a little disagreement on the prescise track,
and 100km one way or the other could make a considerable difference for
lying in the track of a potential sting jet.
Edinburgh and Prestwick TAF's suggesting 55KT gusts for a couple of hours
either side of 6am.
Steve Loft & Dave Liquorice - watch out!
It's certainly going to be a windy morning whatever - and then the Southern
Scandinavians have something to worry about.
Alex.

ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº
Conditions in Wishaw @ 1:55pm , 7/1/05
Temperature 8.7 °C. Dew point 6.3 ºC. 85.0 %RH
Mean wind speed 11 mph from the West South West .
Cloud cover: Broken Clouds
MSLP 1001.5 mb, Falling .
Today's Max. 11.3 °C at 7:31am .
Today's min. 8.7 °C at 1:53pm .
Today's rain 11.2 mm
Wishaw, North Lanarkshire, Scotland
N55º47'14", W3º55'15". 360ft/117m amsl
http://www.alex114.pwp.blueyonder.co.uk/
ºººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººººº

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
. 1.4...
"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in
:

Gusts of 90mph can't be out of the question either I'd imagine?

"Batten down the hatches" Alex as I'm sure they'll tell you to do.

Wouldn't be surprised to see the "sting jet" region pass over the
Edinburgh
area, which would be interesting.

Cheers
Rich

Hi Alex,

Do you think the strong winds will affect us?:-

Leyburn, North Yorkshire ( just to the west of Richmnod and Darlington)

Thanks

Nigel

Alex Stephens Jr wrote:

Steve Loft & Dave Liquorice - watch out!

Thanks for the warning, Alex. I was going to ask how much at risk I was,
as the forecasts so far seem contradictory, and the recent warnings have
come to nothing (here) anyway. My wife thinks I have cried "wolf" once
too often recently.

--
Steve Loft, Wanlockhead, Dumfriesshire. 1417ft ASL
http://www.wanlockhead.org.uk/weather/
Free weather softwa http://cumulus.nybbles.co.uk/
Experimental webcam: http://www.wanlockhead.org.uk/webcam.php

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...
I'll Batten down the hatches and tie down the greenhouse too Richard.
As far as I can tell from the latest GFS run, the lows southern flank does
indeed look as though it will affect the central lowlands. Winds possibly
being further enhanced by a funneling effect? Judging by the warnings on
the Met office site however, the strongest winds are saved for the far
north
of England. So perhaps still a little disagreement on the prescise track,
and 100km one way or the other could make a considerable difference for
lying in the track of a potential sting jet.
Edinburgh and Prestwick TAF's suggesting 55KT gusts for a couple of hours
either side of 6am.

There is still significant differences between the various models, Alex,
including the possible sting jet development and it's positioning. Thus the
fine detail shouldn't be taken too literally, particularly in volatile
situations such as this.

Also, don't forget the 30% probability threshold TAF wise and that they're
site specific, i.e higher gusts (as mentioned in warning) are likely in the
broadscale, particularly over exposed locations. In saying that I wouldn't
be surprised if the figures were a bit higher in one or two Long TAFs come
the 1600Z issue, at least in association a PROB.

Jon.

"Alex Stephens Jr" wrote in message
...
I'll Batten down the hatches and tie down the greenhouse too Richard.
As far as I can tell from the latest GFS run, the lows southern flank does
indeed look as though it will affect the central lowlands. Winds possibly
being further enhanced by a funneling effect? Judging by the warnings on
the Met office site however, the strongest winds are saved for the far
north
of England. So perhaps still a little disagreement on the prescise track,
and 100km one way or the other could make a considerable difference for
lying in the track of a potential sting jet.
Edinburgh and Prestwick TAF's suggesting 55KT gusts for a couple of hours
either side of 6am.

There is still significant differences between the various models, Alex,
including the possible sting jet development and its positioning. Thus the
fine detail shouldn't be taken too literally, particularly in volatile
situations such as this.

Also, don't forget the 30% probability threshold TAF wise and that they're
site specific, i.e higher gusts (as mentioned in warning) are likely in the
broadscale, particularly over exposed locations. In saying that I wouldn't
be surprised if the figures were a bit higher in one or two Long TAFs come
the 1600Z issue, at least in association with a PROB.

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...

There is still significant differences between the various models,
Alex,
including the possible sting jet development and its positioning. Thus
the
fine detail shouldn't be taken too literally, particularly in volatile
situations such as this.

.... agree he this is a *highly* developmental situation (discussed
elsewhere in the ng) - right on our doorstep! Best not to try and be
clever; if you've got concerns about the wind, then take precautions (if
possible) and be thankful if things aren't quite as bad as might be.

Martin.


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