In message , Victor West
writes

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
I wrote this winter off as mild in February 2004 and said so in this
group.

Paul, you wrote off this winter 12 months ago?

Victor
Victor yes, That is why I did not issue my usual winter forecast. I
just felt it to be a waste of time. I was accused at the time of being
gloomy and still am being. Sorry I can't help that.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

In message , Alex Stephens Jr
writes
"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Hi. When some private companies sought cheap publicity again by
forecasting an 'Arctic' winter most of us poured a good deal of scorn on
them. And probably quite rightly so too. That was in the Autumn of 2004
though.
I wrote this winter off as mild in February 2004 and said so in this
group.
The Office though are not so easy to dismiss until their Forecast for this
month. Published in this group on 31 January 2005 it forecast cold and
snow.
Immediately the models I use (GFS,UKMO,ECMWF) began to become more zonal,
a process which has continued to today. I immediately (on 01 February)
said that serious cold was an unlikely scenario, and promptly got a minor
and (I hope) good natured telling off by Will.
I am not aware of the Office specifying their methodology, so I am not
sure why they made such a wild mistake. I admit my methods are crude and
simplistic but at least I state them. (Basically similarites and cycles).
Not brilliant but at least made clear to people when I used to issue
winter forecasts.
Of course this month is not over yet, and the Office may yet be nearly
correct.
Yours with a degree of sorrow.
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

It was sad to hear last year that you were withdrawing from issuing
further winter forecasts.
But alas, this winter has certainly borne out your foresight.
Would you already write off the chances for a cold winter for 2005/06?
I still think it's too early to write off all winters for the foreseeable
future as being mild.
As recently as the winters of 95/96 and 2000/01, we've had cold ones north
of the border. And the South of England isn't a million miles away.
To me it seems there's a combination of climate change and a run of bad
luck, rather than just the former.
Alex
Alex no I am not saying that 2005/2006 will be a write off as I have no
evidence. And gut feelings are not good enough.

Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

In message .com,
Damien writes
Paul,

What did you give for the winter of 1996 - inc. December 1995?

D.

Heaven knows Damien, is there and archive for this newsgroup. If there
is which I doubt then you may find it there,
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

In message , lawrence Jenkins
writes

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Hi. When some private companies sought cheap publicity again by
forecasting an 'Arctic' winter most of us poured a good deal of scorn on
them. And probably quite rightly so too. That was in the Autumn of 2004
though.
I wrote this winter off as mild in February 2004 and said so in this
group.
The Office though are not so easy to dismiss until their Forecast for this
month. Published in this group on 31 January 2005 it forecast cold and
snow.
Immediately the models I use (GFS,UKMO,ECMWF) began to become more zonal,
a process which has continued to today. I immediately (on 01 February)
said that serious cold was an unlikely scenario, and promptly got a minor
and (I hope) good natured telling off by Will.
I am not aware of the Office specifying their methodology, so I am not
sure why they made such a wild mistake. I admit my methods are crude and
simplistic but at least I state them. (Basically similarites and cycles).
Not brilliant but at least made clear to people when I used to issue
winter forecasts.
Of course this month is not over yet, and the Office may yet be nearly
correct.
Yours with a degree of sorrow.
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather



Paul you've been on the "Bishop's Finger" again, haven't you? Anyhow
regardless of that. yes you are right and as I have said many a time that
just one real potential sniff of being cuaght with their pants down and UKMO
always 'over eggs the pudding'


What the heck is the Bishop's Finger? If you regard it as ale then yes
probably. But I cannot manage more than a couple of pints now as I age.
The mind boggles as to what else it may been - heroin perhaps?
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

In message .com,
BlueLightning writes
Whether it's the Met Office, or Metcheque, TWO or whatever.

They all take a lot of stick when they get things wrong.

Now i heard that during the earlier times of weather forecasting,
people expected them to get it wrong.
Today, people expect them to get it right

For their defence:
Don't shoot the messenger
Chaos Theory

Maybe it's time for people to get more informed.
People can learn to read synoptic charts, and they can learn loads from
internet websites
So that people themselves can apply a bit of common sense themselves
and not be completely
dependant on what the forecasters are saying.

For example: if the forecast on the tv or in the paper says it's going
to snow in your area tonight
but at 10pm your check the outside temperature sensor and it's reading
8c and the temp is not
dropping very fast, then it would be a fair bet to say that snow is
looking unlikely on that night

Gotta bear in mind that some tv weather forecasts that are done locally
for example are not always
presented by real meteorologists. It's a read off the auto-cue job

I am talking about the probably best meteorologists in the world,
apparently making a mistake. All ex-professionals now the feeling when,
after a lot of work, their forecast turns out to be incorrect.
Yuk.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

On Sat, 05 Feb 2005 11:34:11 +0000, "Keith (Southend)"
wrote:

I think someone mentioned a few weeks ago, it would have been
interesting to see what the models would have predicted if we had them
back in 1946/47 and 1962/63 ?

I would have thought it could be back-tested, using the data then
available. I would be surprised if the model developers haven't
already attempted this but if the data is too sparse or has been lost,
the results may not have been too meaningful. My guess is that the
models would have gone for a series of short cold spells, with
forecast thaws that consistently failed to materialise.

I'm sure that one year in the not to distant future we will have our
turn, global warming or no global warming and that will be a shock to
many in this country.

Yes, and it will probably be of sudden onset, after the models (having
by then been tweaked to stop them forecasting cold spells all the
time) consistently predicted mild conditions at 3 to 10 days range.
Seriously.

--
Dave

In message , Will Hand
writes
Hi Paul, is was indeed meant to be a "good natured" rebuff. I just found it
ironic that the first time for years the Met Office went for a very cold spell
that up would pop your good self and say it was a load of rubbish -
effectively.
Your reasoning as far as I can see is that recent Februaries in this
pathetically mild modern era have been mild so why not this one ? Fair enough.
But the Office bases its forecasts on a combination of model ensembles, SSTs,
patterns etc. and for them to go cold it had to be something special.
As you say
the models changed on the 1st Feb *after* issue (sometime before 31st when the
decision was made) , so using *hindsight* you were able to criticise.

Thanks for referring to my explanation as to why northern blocking is less
frequent nowadays (in your earlier post). We see an example now typical of this
modern era with the customary deep lows in the Norwegian Sea well to the north
and our old friend Mr Azores (I hate that guy :-)) high well entrenched further
north than normal.

I laugh now when people talk about how cold it is outside when the temperature
is 2 deg C, (one day the temperature was 7 deg C and someone remarked
how bitter
it was !!!) strewth you and I have experienced many winter days when the
temperature did not rise above 0 deg C.

As for companies like Metcheque and TWO, all I can say is that they are
publicity seekers and nothing else. In time their clients will see that and go
elsewhere unless they change their ways.

Finally, I thank my lucky stars that I now live on high ground, at
least up here
I have some hope of some half-decent winter weather (at the expense of summer
sun and heat of course !). There are some places on lower ground in the
southwest who have hardly had a frost yet let alone any snow !

Ah well I have my pictures from Xmas Day to cheer me up in these grim times.

Best wishes Paul, and keep up the good work,
Will.
Thank you for defining the hard work that goes into the Official
forecasts. They were at the time backed up by GFS - I wonder if they are
taking a bit of criticism also. Now of course they show a a forecast of
possibly record breaking high temperatures as a high develops over the
Alps.
I hope people reading this thread will now realise what a nightmare it
is to prepare a 'long term' forecast. Even if you put in hours of
research and work.
Kind regards
Will keep in touch.
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...

I hope people reading this thread will now realise what a nightmare it
is to prepare a 'long term' forecast. Even if you put in hours of
research and work.

Indeed, but to get it that wrong at that close a range is thankfully a rarity.
And some people think they can accurately forecast an individual day's
weather a month ahead........

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Hi. When some private companies sought cheap publicity again by
forecasting an 'Arctic' winter most of us poured a good deal of scorn on
them. And probably quite rightly so too. That was in the Autumn of 2004
though.
I wrote this winter off as mild in February 2004 and said so in this
group.
The Office though are not so easy to dismiss until their Forecast for this
month. Published in this group on 31 January 2005 it forecast cold and
snow.
Immediately the models I use (GFS,UKMO,ECMWF) began to become more zonal,
a process which has continued to today. I immediately (on 01 February)
said that serious cold was an unlikely scenario, and promptly got a minor
and (I hope) good natured telling off by Will.
I am not aware of the Office specifying their methodology, so I am not
sure why they made such a wild mistake. I admit my methods are crude and
simplistic but at least I state them. (Basically similarites and cycles).
Not brilliant but at least made clear to people when I used to issue
winter forecasts.
Of course this month is not over yet, and the Office may yet be nearly
correct.
Yours with a degree of sorrow.
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather

Paul I think your sig sums it up really : 'Wisest are they that know they do
not know.' Socrates


What will be will be, and I'm am on the precipice of towel throwing! However
I hold back because despite this undoubtebly globally warmed world, the
synoptics will probably deliver again something to savour in years to come,
just as they have done for Greece, Spain, Algeria etc. etc.




Regards


Seann Blowman

In article ,
Paul Bartlett writes:
In message .com,
Damien writes
Paul,

What did you give for the winter of 1996 - inc. December 1995?

D.

Heaven knows Damien, is there and archive for this newsgroup. If there
is which I doubt then you may find it there,

This newsgroup doesn't go back that far. It was going by the winter of
1996-7 though, I think, a winter which had a notable cold spell. I
imagine that it would be possible to use Google to search for your posts
from back then.
--
John Hall
"Home is heaven and orgies are vile,
But you *need* an orgy, once in a while."
Ogden Nash (1902-1971)