00Z GFS could well be accurate
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_...rad/132_6.gif0

Jon.


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Oops, dodgy URL

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_...Grad/138_6.gif

"Jon O Rourke" wrote in message
news:4866d0442a4831c2e4bb20ad5e62be3d.62236@mygate .mailgate.org

00Z GFS could well be accurate
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_...rad/132_6.gif0

Jon.




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It's on it's own.

The other models aren't following

Want to put everything on GFS go ahead, but expect to be disappointed
in a few days

"BlueLightning" wrote in message
oups.com

It's on it's own.

The other models aren't following

Want to put everything on GFS go ahead, but expect to be disappointed
in a few days

Disagree, the 00Z MetO GM has a similar setup as did yesterday's 12C EC
operational run. Boundary layer detail will be critical in determining
how extensive the snow is and at what elevation, and that won't be clear
until closer to the event when the higher resoutlion models come into
play.

Jon.



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"Jon O Rourke" wrote in message
news:ecb599041f3d4098d768116d3d87134d.62236@mygate .mailgate.org...
"BlueLightning" wrote in message
oups.com

It's on it's own.

The other models aren't following

Want to put everything on GFS go ahead, but expect to be disappointed
in a few days

Disagree, the 00Z MetO GM has a similar setup as did yesterday's 12C EC
operational run. Boundary layer detail will be critical in determining
how extensive the snow is and at what elevation, and that won't be clear
until closer to the event when the higher resoutlion models come into
play.

Jon.


Exactly Jon. I've been flagging this one for over a week now. I really cannot
see why people are so laid back.
There is also the potential for heavy rain bringing down wet-bulb freezing level
too. Exciting week ahead I feel, but very hard for bench forecasters.

Temp here at 0900 PS03
I'll be phoning in when it starts snowing at my altitude :-)

Will HMO
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Exactly Jon. I've been flagging this one for over a week now. I really
cannot
see why people are so laid back.
There is also the potential for heavy rain bringing down wet-bulb freezing
level
too. Exciting week ahead I feel, but very hard for bench forecasters.

It's still a long way off I suppose, Will, but if this trend continues an
early warning for a potentially disruptive snow event is likely. And yes, it
could be very tricky, particularly for those who have to try and pin down
the detail.

Jon.

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

Exactly Jon. I've been flagging this one for over a week now. I really
cannot
see why people are so laid back.
There is also the potential for heavy rain bringing down wet-bulb freezing
level
too. Exciting week ahead I feel, but very hard for bench forecasters.

It's still a long way off I suppose, Will, but if this trend continues an
early warning for a potentially disruptive snow event is likely. And yes, it
could be very tricky, particularly for those who have to try and pin down
the detail.


My only concern is that the precip. may not actually reach the UK (25% chance)!
We could still end up in no-mans land or a cold easterly. So, yes, take your
point about time-scale.

Will.
--

"Jon O Rourke" wrote in message
news:4866d0442a4831c2e4bb20ad5e62be3d.62236@mygate .mailgate.org...
00Z GFS could well be accurate
http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_00_...rad/132_6.gif0

Jon.

--
GFS 06z?? It's still changing a lot with each run.
..... remember you did need a prompt this time Will. ;-)
" Well next week seems very unclear with all of the models struggling. A
week
ahead is always difficult but I think small changes in this instant could
mean very different weather. Cue Will. "
Dave

In article ,
Will Hand writes:

"Jon O Rourke" wrote in message
news:ecb599041f3d4098d768116d3d87134d.62236@mygat e.mailgate.org...

Disagree, the 00Z MetO GM has a similar setup as did yesterday's 12C EC
operational run. Boundary layer detail will be critical in determining
how extensive the snow is and at what elevation, and that won't be clear
until closer to the event when the higher resoutlion models come into
play.

Exactly Jon. I've been flagging this one for over a week now. I really cannot
see why people are so laid back.
There is also the potential for heavy rain bringing down wet-bulb
freezing level
too. Exciting week ahead I feel, but very hard for bench forecasters.

Rob McElwe was far from laid back on Radio 4 at 6:57 this morning,
hinting tantalisingly at the possibly of "something dramatic" on
Thursday and saying "I'll tell you more when we know more" or something
similar.
--
John Hall Weep not for little Leonie
Abducted by a French Marquis!
Though loss of honour was a wrench
Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936)

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
.uk...

GFS 06z?? It's still changing a lot with each run.

No change there then :-)

I'd give more weight to EC and the MetO GM, both of which have shown better
consistency of late in the medium range period (up to day 5/6).

Otherwise stick to the MetO finalised charts
(http://www.metbrief.com/EGRR.html)
- produced manually using field modification after all available
deterministic and ensemble data has been scrutinised.

Jon.