There's a significant difference between the current TAFs for Heathrow
and Northolt despite them being only about 6 miles apart:

EGLL 210603Z 210716 03010KT 9999 SCT030
PROB30 0708 8000 BKN009
PROB30
TEMPO 0816 9000 -RA

EGWU 210758Z 210903 03012KT CAVOK
TEMPO 0924 7000 RA
PROB30
TEMPO 1124 4000 +TSRA BKN050CB

The Radio 4 forecast said that the rain "will be patchy and mostly
light", which is consistent with the Heathrow TAF. Current radar imagery
lends some support for the Northolt TAF.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
There's a significant difference between the current TAFs for Heathrow
and Northolt despite them being only about 6 miles apart:

Northolt amended.

TAF AMD EGWU 211018Z 211003 03010KT CAVOK
TEMPO 1024 7000 -RA PROB30 TEMPO 1115 4000 RA
TEMPO 0003 SCT015

Jon.

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message .
"Inconsistent TAFs"

Leave Plaid Cymru out off this.

In message , Norman Lynagh
writes
There's a significant difference between the current TAFs for Heathrow
and Northolt despite them being only about 6 miles apart:

EGLL 210603Z 210716 03010KT 9999 SCT030
PROB30 0708 8000 BKN009
PROB30
TEMPO 0816 9000 -RA

EGWU 210758Z 210903 03012KT CAVOK
TEMPO 0924 7000 RA
PROB30
TEMPO 1124 4000 +TSRA BKN050CB

The Radio 4 forecast said that the rain "will be patchy and mostly
light", which is consistent with the Heathrow TAF. Current radar
imagery lends some support for the Northolt TAF.
Norman, I really cannot see why there is a difference - presumably both
Heathrow and Northolt are prepared at Bracknell. The difference is very
small with both being eminently flyable.
I don't know how dependant they are on the latest computer run - it
looks like very.
But the conflict is minimal and would not have thought it would
interfere with any aircraft movements in any way.
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

On 21 May, 19:46, Paul Bartlett wrote
regarding Taf:

PROB30
TEMPO 1124 4000 +TSRA BKN050CB

The difference is very small with both being eminently flyable.
snip
But the conflict is minimal and would not have thought it would
interfere with any aircraft movements in any way.

Don't agree Paul (or maybe I have misunderstood what you were saying)

+TSRA BKN050CB would have been enough to stop me taking off when I was
a professional. I recall an evening like that at Dusseldorf. 32 out
of 33 aircraft on the ground refused to take off. Air Traffic Control
kept saying that the airfield would close at such and such a time, yet
we 32 captains would not be pressurised into taking off in those
conditions. Of course, ATC relented after the storm had cleared and
we all got away safely, albeit late. Better safe than sorry.

Jack

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
In message , Norman Lynagh

Norman, I really cannot see why there is a difference - presumably both
Heathrow and Northolt are prepared at Bracknell. The difference is very
small with both being eminently flyable.
I don't know how dependant they are on the latest computer run - it
looks like very.
But the conflict is minimal and would not have thought it would
interfere with any aircraft movements in any way.
Cheers
Paul

Hi Paul,

All civil TAFs for England and Wales are produced in the Met Office
Operations Centre in Exeter (it moved from Bracknell in 2003). The remainder
are prepared at the Operations Centre in Aberdeen and Belfast Met Office. I
believe the Northolt TAF originally quoted was prepared at Northolt.

The routine METARs across the SE indicate the precipitation recorded at the
surface was mostly light and came from relatively high cloud bases.

Jon.

In message . com, "Jack
)" writes
On 21 May, 19:46, Paul Bartlett wrote
regarding Taf:

PROB30
TEMPO 1124 4000 +TSRA BKN050CB

The difference is very small with both being eminently flyable.
snip
But the conflict is minimal and would not have thought it would
interfere with any aircraft movements in any way.

Don't agree Paul (or maybe I have misunderstood what you were saying)

+TSRA BKN050CB would have been enough to stop me taking off when I was
a professional. I recall an evening like that at Dusseldorf. 32 out
of 33 aircraft on the ground refused to take off. Air Traffic Control
kept saying that the airfield would close at such and such a time, yet
we 32 captains would not be pressurised into taking off in those
conditions. Of course, ATC relented after the storm had cleared and
we all got away safely, albeit late. Better safe than sorry.
Jack, I take your point. But if there was a heavy thunderstorm in
progress then take offs have to be delayed. But if the storms were only
in the TAF as a PROB 30 - surely you would have launched if none were in
progress at the time?
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash

In message , Jon O'Rourke
writes
"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
In message , Norman Lynagh

Norman, I really cannot see why there is a difference - presumably both
Heathrow and Northolt are prepared at Bracknell. The difference is very
small with both being eminently flyable.
I don't know how dependant they are on the latest computer run - it
looks like very.
But the conflict is minimal and would not have thought it would
interfere with any aircraft movements in any way.
Cheers
Paul

Hi Paul,

All civil TAFs for England and Wales are produced in the Met Office
Operations Centre in Exeter (it moved from Bracknell in 2003). The remainder
are prepared at the Operations Centre in Aberdeen and Belfast Met Office. I
believe the Northolt TAF originally quoted was prepared at Northolt.

The routine METARs across the SE indicate the precipitation recorded at the
surface was mostly light and came from relatively high cloud bases.
Jon please see my response to Jack. If storm in progress then don't
launch but if forecast over quite a long time period - surely you must
go.
But of course that is up to the captain.
At all the fast-jet stations I worked at, take off in a heavy
thunderstorm would be cancelled - but a forecast one?
Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS
www.rutnet.co.uk Go to local weather.
400FT AMSL 25Miles southwest of the Wash