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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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I
What do others think? I've recorded 120.8mm in West Somerset for the month to date - quite a total for my first year of records.. I'm up to 131.6mm, my wettest July on record (1960-2007). Still way behind: August 2004 - 209.8mm My 10 wettest months behind August 2004 (since 1960): Nov 2000 - 178.8mm May 1969 - 172.5mm Feb 1977 - 171.9mm Oct 1998 - 169.7mm Jun 1980 - 165.5mm Oct 2000 - 158.3mm Dec 1980 - 157.1mm Nov 1970 - 156.9mm Dec 1965 - 155.2mm Jun 2007 - 154.0mm Weston Coyney weather station (North Staffordshire) 220 metres asl -- Graham |
#12
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STUART ONYECHE wrote:
Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me increasingly lose faith in the GW science. Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there will be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth. -- Graham P Davis Bracknell, Berks., UK Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored. |
#13
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STUART ONYECHE wrote:
Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. "Graham P Davis" ... Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there will be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth. .... that is my understanding of the current knowledge, and it sounds sensible: some commentators are trying to get this message across, but generally it's getting lost in the 'noise' of "let's stop Climate Change"! Yesterday's newspapers were studded with adverts with the core theme that if you do this and that, we can 'help stop Climate Change'. I'm sure the late Hubert Lamb would have raised an eyebrow at the thought that mere human beings could somehow *stop* the climate changing! Martin. -- Martin Rowley E: W: booty.org.uk |
#14
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"Graham P Davis" wrote :
STUART ONYECHE wrote: Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me increasingly lose faith in the GW science. Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there will be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth. Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May, June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken the previous record. It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not "where has all the rain come from?" Philip |
#15
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In message , Philip Eden
writes "Graham P Davis" wrote : STUART ONYECHE wrote: Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me increasingly lose faith in the GW science. Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there will be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth. Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May, June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken the previous record. It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not "where has all the rain come from?" Philip No doubt there is somewhere, either upstream or downstream of us or both, where there has been extreme anticyclonicity during the same period - though I haven't checked that. If I'm correct, the question becomes the even broader one of "why has the northern hemisphere circulation been so anomalous?" Taking an even wider view, if we factor in the extreme cold weather events in South America, South Africa and Australia in recent weeks perhaps the whole global circulation has been notably anomalous. If so, that might be a direct result of global warming or it might not. Isn't it a fascinating science. Norman. (delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail) -- Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l. England |
#16
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"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote : STUART ONYECHE wrote: Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me increasingly lose faith in the GW science. Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there will be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth. Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May, June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken the previous record. It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not "where has all the rain come from?" No idea about the cyclonicity. I usually go by SST anomalies near the Grand Banks but they've led me right up the garden path this summer. I'd expected more cyclonicity but to the north of Scotland and higher pressure over southern UK. Oops! -- Graham P Davis Bracknell, Berks., UK Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored. |
#17
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On 26 Jul, 09:20, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote : STUART ONYECHE wrote: Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me increasingly lose faith in the GW science. Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there will be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth. Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May, June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken the previous record. It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not "where has all the rain come from?" Philip- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text - I believe it to be Air Pressure averaging out over large timescale to around 1015mb, which is also part of the North Atlantic Oscillation. I have been keeping pressure reading for some time now, and Air Pressure always seems to pay its debt. When I started looking further back as far the mid 1970's I found there was a period around 1975/6 where the average annual pressure was around 1018 - 1020mb. Over a longer period of time, pressure always wants to average out at around 1015mb for the South West of England. Also, all this global warming evidence seems to be based on surface temperatures, has there been any evidence that the upper atmosphere is either cooling or getting warmer than say 30 years ago? |
#18
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"Bonos Ego" wrote
Also, all this global warming evidence seems to be based on surface temperatures, has there been any evidence that the upper atmosphere is either cooling or getting warmer than say 30 years ago? .... see the Scientific Report from the IPCC (AR4) http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html specifically page 268, which confirms earlier work that states that the troposphere *is* significantly warming (and is expected to continue to warm), and the lower stratosphere is significantly cooling (and is expected to continue to do so). However, the report (and other sources) do highlight the difficulty of maintaining consistency in the various over-lapping records due to changing instrumentation (type of Sondes, use of satellite radiance retrieval etc.): despite the difficulty in analysis, I don't believe that there there is any serious argument over the _general trend_ (there was a few years ago, but I believe the doubts expressed by some have now been answered). Also, for the BI specifically, I have been keeping a log of total thickness values (1000-500 hPa) since the early 1970's; the result of that I put in the (old) FAQ at Q/A 2A.22, still available from my web site (as under). Broadly, this confirms the warming in this layer at least (by this measure). The Hadley Centre have also produced data which confirms the upward march of total thickness values in recent decades. Incidentally, AR4 (and indeed earlier issues) is useful reading before entering the debate relating to issues such as whether specific weather events are 'due to Climate Change' or not. Martin. -- Martin Rowley E: W: booty.org.uk |
#19
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![]() "Norman Lynagh" wrote in message ... No doubt there is somewhere, either upstream or downstream of us or both, where there has been extreme anticyclonicity during the same period - SE Europe heatwave? |
#20
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![]() "STUART ONYECHE" wrote in message k... Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me increasingly lose faith in the GW science. I don't recall anyone attributing the recent flooding to GW. Even if they did, just because some people misunderstand the science doesn't mean the science is wrong. |
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