I

What do others think?

I've recorded 120.8mm in West Somerset for the month to date - quite a total
for my first year of records..

I'm up to 131.6mm, my wettest July on record (1960-2007).

Still way behind:

August 2004 - 209.8mm

My 10 wettest months behind August 2004 (since 1960):

Nov 2000 - 178.8mm
May 1969 - 172.5mm
Feb 1977 - 171.9mm
Oct 1998 - 169.7mm
Jun 1980 - 165.5mm
Oct 2000 - 158.3mm
Dec 1980 - 157.1mm
Nov 1970 - 156.9mm
Dec 1965 - 155.2mm
Jun 2007 - 154.0mm

Weston Coyney weather station (North Staffordshire) 220 metres asl



--
Graham

STUART ONYECHE wrote:

Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/
politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon,
conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to
get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events
would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not
summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me
increasingly lose faith in the GW science.


Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there will
be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are
likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth.

--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

STUART ONYECHE wrote:
Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in
terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain.
Media/
politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon,
conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are
supposed to
get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain
events
would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000,
not
summer synoptic scale.
"Graham P Davis" ...


Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because
there will
be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events
are
likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth.


.... that is my understanding of the current knowledge, and it sounds
sensible: some commentators are trying to get this message across, but
generally it's getting lost in the 'noise' of "let's stop Climate
Change"! Yesterday's newspapers were studded with adverts with the
core theme that if you do this and that, we can 'help stop Climate
Change'. I'm sure the late Hubert Lamb would have raised an eyebrow at
the thought that mere human beings could somehow *stop* the climate
changing!

Martin.


--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

"Graham P Davis" wrote :
STUART ONYECHE wrote:

Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/
politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon,
conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to
get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events
would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not
summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me
increasingly lose faith in the GW science.


Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there
will
be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are
likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth.

Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and
not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events
all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May,
June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken
the previous record.

It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined
has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong
correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question
I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not
"where has all the rain come from?"

Philip

In message , Philip Eden
writes
"Graham P Davis" wrote :
STUART ONYECHE wrote:

Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/
politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon,
conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to
get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events
would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not
summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me
increasingly lose faith in the GW science.


Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there
will
be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are
likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth.

Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and
not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events
all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May,
June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken
the previous record.

It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined
has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong
correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question
I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not
"where has all the rain come from?"

Philip

No doubt there is somewhere, either upstream or downstream of us or
both, where there has been extreme anticyclonicity during the same
period - though I haven't checked that. If I'm correct, the question
becomes the even broader one of "why has the northern hemisphere
circulation been so anomalous?"

Taking an even wider view, if we factor in the extreme cold weather
events in South America, South Africa and Australia in recent weeks
perhaps the whole global circulation has been notably anomalous. If so,
that might be a direct result of global warming or it might not.

Isn't it a fascinating science.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles 85m a.s.l.
England

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:

"Graham P Davis" wrote :
STUART ONYECHE wrote:

Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain.
Media/ politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW
bandwagon, conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are
supposed to get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme
rain events would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those
in 2000, not summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also
to GW makes me increasingly lose faith in the GW science.


Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there
will
be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are
likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth.

Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and
not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall
events all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for
May, June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken
the previous record.

It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined
has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong
correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question
I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not
"where has all the rain come from?"


No idea about the cyclonicity. I usually go by SST anomalies near the Grand
Banks but they've led me right up the garden path this summer. I'd expected
more cyclonicity but to the north of Scotland and higher pressure over
southern UK. Oops!


--
Graham P Davis
Bracknell, Berks., UK
Send e-mails to "newsman" as mails to "newsboy" are ignored.

On 26 Jul, 09:20, "Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:
"Graham P Davis" wrote :



STUART ONYECHE wrote:

Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/
politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon,
conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to
get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events
would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not
summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me
increasingly lose faith in the GW science.

Yes, GW is forecast to give us drier summers, but that is because there
will
be fewer rainfall events in summer. However, single rainfall events are
likely to be heavier due to the increased warmth.

Although having said that -- and I offer this as an observation only, and
not as evidence of anything else -- this summer's individual rainfall events
all have several precedents, whereas the aggregate rainfall for May,
June and July, averaged over England and Wales, has easily broken
the previous record.

It's also worth noting that the synoptic character of MJJ combined
has also been unprecedentedly cyclonic, and there is a strong
correlation between cyclonicity and aggregate rainfall. So the question
I would ask is, "where has that extreme cyclonicity come from?" Not
"where has all the rain come from?"

Philip- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I believe it to be Air Pressure averaging out over large timescale to
around 1015mb, which is also part of the North Atlantic Oscillation.

I have been keeping pressure reading for some time now, and Air
Pressure always seems to pay its debt. When I started looking further
back as far the mid 1970's I found there was a period around 1975/6
where the average annual pressure was around 1018 - 1020mb. Over a
longer period of time, pressure always wants to average out at around
1015mb for the South West of England.

Also, all this global warming evidence seems to be based on surface
temperatures, has there been any evidence that the upper atmosphere is
either cooling or getting warmer than say 30 years ago?

"Bonos Ego" wrote
Also, all this global warming evidence seems to be based on surface
temperatures, has there been any evidence that the upper atmosphere
is
either cooling or getting warmer than say 30 years ago?


.... see the Scientific Report from the IPCC (AR4)
http://www.ipcc-wg2.org/index.html

specifically page 268, which confirms earlier work that states that
the troposphere *is* significantly warming (and is expected to
continue to warm), and the lower stratosphere is significantly cooling
(and is expected to continue to do so). However, the report (and other
sources) do highlight the difficulty of maintaining consistency in the
various over-lapping records due to changing instrumentation (type of
Sondes, use of satellite radiance retrieval etc.): despite the
difficulty in analysis, I don't believe that there there is any
serious argument over the _general trend_ (there was a few years ago,
but I believe the doubts expressed by some have now been answered).

Also, for the BI specifically, I have been keeping a log of total
thickness values (1000-500 hPa) since the early 1970's; the result of
that I put in the (old) FAQ at Q/A 2A.22, still available from my web
site (as under). Broadly, this confirms the warming in this layer at
least (by this measure). The Hadley Centre have also produced data
which confirms the upward march of total thickness values in recent
decades.

Incidentally, AR4 (and indeed earlier issues) is useful reading before
entering the debate relating to issues such as whether specific
weather events are 'due to Climate Change' or not.

Martin.

--
Martin Rowley
E:
W: booty.org.uk

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in
message ...
No doubt there is somewhere, either upstream or downstream of us or both,
where there has been extreme anticyclonicity during the same period -

SE Europe heatwave?

"STUART ONYECHE" wrote in message
k...
Is the latest rainfall event really unprescedented? Particularly
interested in whether there have been similar summer events in terms of
both spatial area of rainfall combined with magnitude of the rain. Media/
politicians are too keen to add recent events to the GW bandwagon,
conveniently ignoring the point that with GW our summers are supposed to
get drier, as far as I understand it. I thought the extreme rain events
would be autumn/winter synoptic scale events such as those in 2000, not
summer synoptic scale. Attributing the latest events also to GW makes me
increasingly lose faith in the GW science.


I don't recall anyone attributing the recent flooding to GW. Even if they
did, just because some people misunderstand the science doesn't mean the
science is wrong.