In article ,
Will Hand writes:
I'm getting a tad excited :-)

We'd never have guessed.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Dave Cornwell wrote:
There's no truth in the rumour that I'm now working for Weather Action :-)
--------------------
We know that - you've got the odd one right now and again ;-))

Dave



GFS 18z digs in the cold air for three days, following the other models
more closely. :-)

I'm not going to let myself get excited like Will!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net



Y I P P I :-)

00Z 26th.

What a change. OP runs seems to have backed off very cold scenario considerably.
But still cold.
Ensembles solid for retrogression. Fascinating!

Confidence in a cold snap now 90%
Confidence in a widespread low-ground snow event now 30%

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
12Z ECMWF is same story as 00Z!

In fact sub 510 DAM air into western Scotland on Friday and widespread sleet
or
snow on Thursday with sub 522 DAM. Origin of the air is the pole itself and
that
is mighty cold, even these days. As we are talking T+144 now from one of the
best models in the world confidence is now 70%. JMA and UKMO all go a very
cold
wintry spell with widespread snow. Only GFS is now milder.

I'm getting a tad excited :-)

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.

Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with
1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the least
keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF
(outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.

So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end of
next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.

Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of
sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely
dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "


------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-

On Jan 26, 9:32 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
00Z 26th.

What a change. OP runs seems to have backed off very cold scenario considerably.
But still cold.
Ensembles solid for retrogression. Fascinating!

Confidence in a cold snap now 90%
Confidence in a widespread low-ground snow event now 30%

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message

...

12Z ECMWF is same story as 00Z!

In fact sub 510 DAM air into western Scotland on Friday and widespread sleet
or
snow on Thursday with sub 522 DAM. Origin of the air is the pole itself and
that
is mighty cold, even these days. As we are talking T+144 now from one of the
best models in the world confidence is now 70%. JMA and UKMO all go a very
cold
wintry spell with widespread snow. Only GFS is now milder.

I'm getting a tad excited :-)

Will
--

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...
Well as of 25/01/08 all models are going solidly for major long wave
retrogression (high centred western/mid Atlantic) and very cold air plunging
down from north later next week and lasting into next weekend at least.

Still some oscillation in detail and ECMWF 00Z run is frightening with
1000-500
thickness down to 516DAM over Wales. Possibly an outlier. GFS is the least
keen
on deep cold air which is unusual, so perhaps that is an outlier too as its
ensembles look cold. UKMO is in line but not as cold as the ECMWF
(outlier?).
GEM is also less cold, throwing some more doubt on severity.

So some sleet and snow for a lot of people on low ground I'd say at end of
next
week, particularly in west and north with still some west in the flow. My
personal confidence is now 65%, so still an amount of doubt obviously.

Nevertheless, I have primed the Haytor community for the probability of snow
above 250m asl from next Thursday onwards and I can hear the sound of
sledges
being honed as I type, me ... I'm gonna check that log pile in the lovely
dry
and sunny weather we have now :-)

Will
--

" I shall not commit the fashionable stupidity of regarding everything
I cannot explain as fraud. Carl Jung "

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www:

http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm



DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-

Mmm, I was thinking that as well when I looked this morning, no
surprises there then :-(

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net

It's no surprise that it's gone pear shaped for low ground

With waving fronts, i'm not sure any decent cold air will reach the
south

The lows down here, effectively blocking the cold air from flooding
down

A two/three day cold snap before the mild comes again.

As with last year, Wales & The Midlands could get dumped on

On Jan 26, 2:56 pm, BlueLightning wrote:
It's no surprise that it's gone pear shaped for low ground

With waving fronts, i'm not sure any decent cold air will reach the
south

The lows down here, effectively blocking the cold air from flooding
down

A two/three day cold snap before the mild comes again.

As with last year, Wales & The Midlands could get dumped on

Hey Blue, hold on all to play for still. 12Z GFS is very interesting,
yes marginal for ground below 200m asl in Devon, but T+132 MetO FAX
has all Britain in cold air and with waves passing to the SW, all of
Devon and Cornwall could get a dumping. A cold spell is almost certain
now, but as always, the devil is in the elusive detail. At times like
this one goes for climatology i.e. snow for Wales, Midlands northwards
and high ground in the south above 200m asl. But, ... this is
potentially a very good situation for SW'ern snow as well.

Chin up :-)

Will
--

On 26 Jan, 17:01, "
wrote:
On Jan 26, 2:56 pm, BlueLightning wrote:

It's no surprise that it's gone pear shaped for low ground

With waving fronts, i'm not sure any decent cold air will reach the
south

The lows down here, effectively blocking the cold air from flooding
down

A two/three day cold snap before the mild comes again.

As with last year, Wales & The Midlands could get dumped on

Hey Blue, hold on all to play for still. 12Z GFS is very interesting,
yes marginal for ground below 200m asl in Devon, but T+132 MetO FAX
has all Britain in cold air and with waves passing to the SW, all of
Devon and Cornwall could get a dumping. A cold spell is almost certain
now, but as always, the devil is in the elusive detail. At times like
this one goes for climatology i.e. snow for Wales, Midlands northwards
and high ground in the south above 200m asl. But, ... this is
potentially a very good situation for SW'ern snow as well.

Chin up :-)

Will
--

Well, I took my daughter up to Eden (£5 admission if you're Cornish)
today. Calm & sunny, sat outside with a beer & a pasty (both made in
Cornwall) soaking up the sun, dreaming of the returning summer (sun,
sea, surf, shiny happy people having fun & the rest), then you ruin my
day by threatening me with wind, sleet & misery. So if you don't mind
I'll just rework your last sentence. 'This is potentially a bl**dy
miserable situation for the SW.

Fortunately there has still been no proper cold spell down here all
winter (only 1 air frost - and that was back in November) despite the
frequent threats made by several on this newsgroup - so I live in hope
& I may even of helped redress the balance of opinion.

Graham
Penzance

How can you tell if someone is Cornish or not, do they wear pasties on
their feet?

Soon they will be having passport controls on Tamar Bridge!

Only joking Graham.

On Jan 26, 8:06 pm, Graham Easterling
wrote:
On 26 Jan, 17:01, "



wrote:
On Jan 26, 2:56 pm, BlueLightning wrote:

It's no surprise that it's gone pear shaped for low ground

With waving fronts, i'm not sure any decent cold air will reach the
south

The lows down here, effectively blocking the cold air from flooding
down

A two/three day cold snap before the mild comes again.

As with last year, Wales & The Midlands could get dumped on

Hey Blue, hold on all to play for still. 12Z GFS is very interesting,
yes marginal for ground below 200m asl in Devon, but T+132 MetO FAX
has all Britain in cold air and with waves passing to the SW, all of
Devon and Cornwall could get a dumping. A cold spell is almost certain
now, but as always, the devil is in the elusive detail. At times like
this one goes for climatology i.e. snow for Wales, Midlands northwards
and high ground in the south above 200m asl. But, ... this is
potentially a very good situation for SW'ern snow as well.

Chin up :-)

Will
--

Well, I took my daughter up to Eden (£5 admission if you're Cornish)
today. Calm & sunny, sat outside with a beer & a pasty (both made in
Cornwall) soaking up the sun, dreaming of the returning summer (sun,
sea, surf, shiny happy people having fun & the rest), then you ruin my
day by threatening me with wind, sleet & misery. So if you don't mind
I'll just rework your last sentence. 'This is potentially a bl**dy
miserable situation for the SW.

Fortunately there has still been no proper cold spell down here all
winter (only 1 air frost - and that was back in November) despite the
frequent threats made by several on this newsgroup - so I live in hope
& I may even of helped redress the balance of opinion.

Graham
Penzance

Only 1 frost, I think I'd hate to live in coastal Cornwall in winter,
summer would be great though!
But each to their own as you say.

To be fair I said it was potentially a good situation for SW'ern
*snow* i.e. it was not meant to be an inclusive statement. In fact a
statement of meteorological fact.

We all want different weather, and most of us snow lovers have to put
up with seemingly endless dreary (for us) mild conditions in these
modern times, so you will have to forgive us if we get a bit excited
about the prospects of getting the winter weather we crave for. Mild
weather lovers are very well catered for these days.

Will
--

On Jan 26, 9:10 pm, Bonos Ego wrote:
How can you tell if someone is Cornish or not, do they wear pasties on
their feet?

Soon they will be having passport controls on Tamar Bridge!

Only joking Graham.

Actually I thought the £5 entrance extended to Devon households as
well? At least I was told that the other day.

Will
--