Still pretty confident about that forecast. The high is shifting about
on the models and Roger may be spot on with his 10-day forecast of
temperatures in the SE. 25C doesn't look as widespread, as it did,
but I'm confident it will be warm and dry across much of the UK. Not
for everyone; the NW of Scotland looks plagued by fronts next week,
from today's output and not as warm, but to forecast that the whole of
the UK to be completely dry would be guessing and I certainly didn't
forecast that! I'm also confident that dry and settled weather will
now extend a day further than the 14th, to mid June. It'll be a fine
and dry start to the summer for many areas away from the NW.

I think, in hindsight, we'll look back and say that summer started
during the first week of June, for areas away from the far NW, at
least - but whether "summer" will continue through June, July and
August, or when it will ebb and flow throughout that period, is
anybody's guess.

Paul

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Still pretty confident about that forecast. The high is shifting about
on the models and Roger may be spot on with his 10-day forecast of
temperatures in the SE. 25C doesn't look as widespread, as it did,
but I'm confident it will be warm and dry across much of the UK. Not

Paul

The GFS runs of late seem to be reducing the "risk" of great weather!! It
really is a difficult one to call given the uncertainty that seems to be
creeping in to the model runs from the GFS at 06z and now 12z. Having said
that, the UKMO and ECM runs are not quite as poor as they had been and seem
to be heading to a solution somewhere between the "heatwave" from GFS and a
more stable but normal affair.

Warm and dry still looks on after Sunday but maybe more to the West?

Joe

"JCW" wrote in message
...
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Still pretty confident about that forecast.
Warm and dry still looks on after Sunday but maybe more to the West?

Joe

Sorry for replying to my own post but...

No sooner do I send it than the ECM comes back with some respectable charts
for the warm and dry forecast across all the UK!! Here's hoping...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Joe

LOL in classic fashion your so called forecast has gone titicus verticus
in a matter of hours.

Just keep trying to forecast using 1 model at T+240 , the more you look
like a prat.

Dawlish wrote:
Still pretty confident about that forecast. The high is shifting about
on the models and Roger may be spot on with his 10-day forecast of
temperatures in the SE. 25C doesn't look as widespread, as it did,
but I'm confident it will be warm and dry across much of the UK. Not
for everyone; the NW of Scotland looks plagued by fronts next week,
from today's output and not as warm, but to forecast that the whole of
the UK to be completely dry would be guessing and I certainly didn't
forecast that! I'm also confident that dry and settled weather will
now extend a day further than the 14th, to mid June. It'll be a fine
and dry start to the summer for many areas away from the NW.

I think, in hindsight, we'll look back and say that summer started
during the first week of June, for areas away from the far NW, at
least - but whether "summer" will continue through June, July and
August, or when it will ebb and flow throughout that period, is
anybody's guess.

Paul

"JCW" wrote in message
...
"JCW" wrote in message
...
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Still pretty confident about that forecast.
Warm and dry still looks on after Sunday but maybe more to the West?

Joe

Sorry for replying to my own post but...

No sooner do I send it than the ECM comes back with some respectable
charts for the warm and dry forecast across all the UK!! Here's hoping...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

That chart says to me cloudy anywhere north of the Midlands,
rain in Scotland. Though without fronts depicted it's difficult
to tell. Far from 'warm and dry' across the whole UK anyway.
--
Col

Steal a spaceship and head for the sun,
Shoot the stars with a lemonade ray gun.

"Col" wrote in message
...

That chart says to me cloudy anywhere north of the Midlands,
rain in Scotland. Though without fronts depicted it's difficult
to tell. Far from 'warm and dry' across the whole UK anyway.
--
Col

I'd tend to agree with you, Col. The 12Z operational run (EC) drives a cold
front south on Tuesday with temperatures dipping to the mid to high teens
from around 20 over the weekend, at least in the south. Still time for
things to change but the operational run is now reasonably well supported by
the ensemble with a bias towards a cool-ish N to NW'ly flow from Tuesday.

Jon.

"Col" wrote in message
...
That chart says to me cloudy anywhere north of the Midlands,
rain in Scotland. Though without fronts depicted it's difficult
to tell. Far from 'warm and dry' across the whole UK anyway.
--
Col

I agree, Col (& Jon).

Although if you are far enough South and West, i.e. Cork, Kerry, Galway,
Mayo then, although not the UK, a better chance or warm and dry! No good to
me however with a keen NW or even NE if that High continues to re-orientate
at T+168 and thereafter.

Still, slightly better than previous ECM run but a long way off the glorious
GFS of yesterday.

Joe

"JCW" wrote in message
...

Although if you are far enough South and West, i.e. Cork, Kerry, Galway,
Mayo then, although not the UK, a better chance or warm and dry! No good
to
me however with a keen NW or even NE if that High continues to
re-orientate
at T+168 and thereafter.

Still, slightly better than previous ECM run but a long way off the
glorious
GFS of yesterday.

Joe

17/18C, low dew points and a bit of sunshine will do me fine, Joe :-)

Jon.

"JCW" wrote in message
...
"JCW" wrote in message
...
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Still pretty confident about that forecast.
Warm and dry still looks on after Sunday but maybe more to the West?

Joe

Sorry for replying to my own post but...

No sooner do I send it than the ECM comes back with some respectable
charts for the warm and dry forecast across all the UK!! Here's hoping...

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Joe


No
apparently not everywhere
London Outlook for Saturday to Monday:
Outbreaks of showery rain on Saturday dying out. Sunday mainly dry with
sunny spells. Monday mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain.
It just goes on and on its never gonna happen at least for the East
--
Dave R. [west London]

"N.E Zephyr" wrote in message
...
LOL in classic fashion your so called forecast has gone titicus verticus
in a matter of hours.


Yeah but so has Will LOL why shouldn't he get slated too?


--
Dave R. [west London]