Oh, look here comes the "not enough consistency" for a forecast crap.
You dont do forecats when you going to be wrong then?
You do see the met office saying, "no forecast for the weekend, we will
be wrong"

You cant qoute accuracy stats when you dont forecast consistently.

Idiot.


Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 1:32 pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Jun 28, 12:01 pm, Ian Sutherland
wrote:

N.E Zephyr wrote:
Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?
For goodness sake, grow up.
I don't think my stalker undestands the difference between forecast
and commentary Ian! It's a crap forecast even when I haven't actually
forecast anything and on the day that the forecast, or commentary is
made! The forecasts are crap when they are correct, or incorrect and
crap whether it's a forecast, or not. At least he's consistent.
That's exactly what I consider your postings to be, your musings on
upcomimg possibilities/sceanarios and what might happen if certain
events do or don't happen. So not a forecast as such.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Not in this instance Col. There's just not enough consistency, at
present, to forecast at T240 with any decent chance of success. The
Met Office has had exactly the same difficulty over this last week,
having, ignored the possibility of a temporary spell of hot weather at
the start of July, issued on Wednesday of this week, when it was being
shown on the gfs - but again without the consistency that I need for a
forecast. See the other thread and you'll see what I mean. Crazily,
that hot weather is stil not certain, by any means; the coming plume
may still not make it to the UK, or may only clip the SE. I don't
blame them in the slightest. I believe that the probability of
outcome, using whatever method you choose, to forecast at 10 days
plus, is very low, most of the time, for whichever agency, or
individual tries their hand at it. The Met office is truly caught
between a lake and a wet place. They just can't say that this, or
that, could happen. The public expects more than they are capable of
at that distance.

Even at a 4days, at the moment, most people expect the Met Office to
be, at least resonably, correct for next Wednesday's weather. Anyone
with any real meteorological knowledge would know that next
Wednesday's situation is fraught with difficulty. Will Wimbledon get a
sunny, humid, hot day, or will there be downpours? Or, will the plume
have toppled, leaving SW14 in azure blue skies, with white cumulus and
the outside possibility of a shower The detail is truly impossible and
probably will be up until much closer - perhaps even until late on
Wednesday Morning, as regards a decent forecast for the tennis.

The only reason I try my hand at occasional forecasts is to experiment
with trying to recognise when that possibility of a weather event/type
10 days hence, rises to a point where what is being shown on the
numerical models is actually likely to occur 10 days later.

I'm very aware of the fact that the Met Office has to forecast (lake
and a wet place, as regards public expectation and forecasting
capability, as I've said and many times that 10 day(ish) forecastwill
goes under - last Wednesday's was a good example) and the spread of
6-15 days in that forecast and the ambiguity and lack of forecast
detail shows the difficulty they have and the lack of confidence they
have in that forecast.

There's half-hearted attempt at desribing some of the forecasting
difficulties that the Met Office forecasters face on a daily basis, in
"The Tombs" magazine today, but it only tells a very small part of the
story.

Paul

On Jun 28, 8:32*pm, "N.E Zephyr" wrote:
Oh, look here comes the "not enough consistency" for a forecast crap.
You dont do forecats when you going to be wrong then?
You do see the met office saying, "no forecast for the weekend, we will
be wrong"

You cant qoute accuracy stats when you dont forecast consistently.

Idiot.



Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 1:32 pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

....
On Jun 28, 12:01 pm, Ian Sutherland
wrote:

N.E Zephyr wrote:
Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?
For goodness sake, grow up.
I don't think my stalker undestands the difference between forecast
and commentary Ian! It's a crap forecast even when I haven't actually
forecast anything and on the day that the forecast, or commentary is
made! The forecasts are crap when they are correct, or incorrect and
crap whether it's a forecast, or not. At least he's consistent.
That's exactly what I consider your postings to be, your musings on
upcomimg possibilities/sceanarios and what might happen if certain
events do or don't happen. So not a forecast as such.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Not in this instance Col. There's just not enough consistency, at
present, to forecast at T240 with any decent chance of success. The
Met Office has had exactly the same difficulty over this last week,
having, ignored the possibility of a temporary spell of hot weather at
the start of July, issued on Wednesday of this week, when it was being
shown on the gfs - but again without the consistency that I need for a
forecast. See the other thread and you'll see what I mean. Crazily,
that hot weather is stil not certain, by any means; the coming plume
may still not make it to the UK, or may only clip the SE. I don't
blame them in the slightest. I believe that the probability of
outcome, using whatever method you choose, to forecast at 10 days
plus, is very low, most of the time, for whichever agency, or
individual tries their hand at it. The Met office is truly caught
between a lake and a wet place. They just can't say that this, or
that, could happen. The public expects more than they are capable of
at that distance.

Even at a 4days, at the moment, most people expect the Met Office to
be, at least resonably, correct for next Wednesday's weather. Anyone
with any real meteorological knowledge would know that next
Wednesday's situation is fraught with difficulty. Will Wimbledon get a
sunny, humid, hot day, or will there be downpours? Or, will the plume
have toppled, leaving SW14 in azure blue skies, with white cumulus and
the outside possibility of a shower The detail is truly impossible and
probably will be up until much closer - perhaps even until late on
Wednesday Morning, as regards a decent forecast for the tennis.

The only reason I try my hand at occasional forecasts is to experiment
with trying to recognise when that possibility of a weather event/type
10 days hence, rises to a point where what is being shown on the
numerical models is actually likely to occur 10 days later.

I'm very aware of the fact that the Met Office has to forecast (lake
and a wet place, as regards public expectation and forecasting
capability, as I've said and many times that 10 day(ish) forecastwill
goes under - last Wednesday's was a good example) and the spread of
6-15 days in that forecast and the ambiguity and lack of forecast
detail shows the difficulty they have and the lack of confidence they
have in that forecast.

There's half-hearted attempt at desribing some of the forecasting
difficulties that the Met Office forecasters face on a daily basis, in
"The Tombs" magazine today, but it only tells a very small part of the
story.

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...


21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

Well he's just gained the key to my killfile.
I know where he's followed you here from, and I don't much care....

*Plonk*
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

"21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
" anywhere in it."

and what would you know about meteorology?
A self proclaimed forecaster? with made up stats.

Are you qualified?

NO

Internet fodder, as I expected.




Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 8:32 pm, "N.E Zephyr" wrote:
Oh, look here comes the "not enough consistency" for a forecast crap.
You dont do forecats when you going to be wrong then?
You do see the met office saying, "no forecast for the weekend, we will
be wrong"

You cant qoute accuracy stats when you dont forecast consistently.

Idiot.



Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 28, 1:32 pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jun 28, 12:01 pm, Ian Sutherland
wrote:
N.E Zephyr wrote:
Another pointless, and wrong forecast, or crapcast as I should say.
Who are you trying to impress?
For goodness sake, grow up.
I don't think my stalker undestands the difference between forecast
and commentary Ian! It's a crap forecast even when I haven't actually
forecast anything and on the day that the forecast, or commentary is
made! The forecasts are crap when they are correct, or incorrect and
crap whether it's a forecast, or not. At least he's consistent.
That's exactly what I consider your postings to be, your musings on
upcomimg possibilities/sceanarios and what might happen if certain
events do or don't happen. So not a forecast as such.
--
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Not in this instance Col. There's just not enough consistency, at
present, to forecast at T240 with any decent chance of success. The
Met Office has had exactly the same difficulty over this last week,
having, ignored the possibility of a temporary spell of hot weather at
the start of July, issued on Wednesday of this week, when it was being
shown on the gfs - but again without the consistency that I need for a
forecast. See the other thread and you'll see what I mean. Crazily,
that hot weather is stil not certain, by any means; the coming plume
may still not make it to the UK, or may only clip the SE. I don't
blame them in the slightest. I believe that the probability of
outcome, using whatever method you choose, to forecast at 10 days
plus, is very low, most of the time, for whichever agency, or
individual tries their hand at it. The Met office is truly caught
between a lake and a wet place. They just can't say that this, or
that, could happen. The public expects more than they are capable of
at that distance.
Even at a 4days, at the moment, most people expect the Met Office to
be, at least resonably, correct for next Wednesday's weather. Anyone
with any real meteorological knowledge would know that next
Wednesday's situation is fraught with difficulty. Will Wimbledon get a
sunny, humid, hot day, or will there be downpours? Or, will the plume
have toppled, leaving SW14 in azure blue skies, with white cumulus and
the outside possibility of a shower The detail is truly impossible and
probably will be up until much closer - perhaps even until late on
Wednesday Morning, as regards a decent forecast for the tennis.
The only reason I try my hand at occasional forecasts is to experiment
with trying to recognise when that possibility of a weather event/type
10 days hence, rises to a point where what is being shown on the
numerical models is actually likely to occur 10 days later.
I'm very aware of the fact that the Met Office has to forecast (lake
and a wet place, as regards public expectation and forecasting
capability, as I've said and many times that 10 day(ish) forecastwill
goes under - last Wednesday's was a good example) and the spread of
6-15 days in that forecast and the ambiguity and lack of forecast
detail shows the difficulty they have and the lack of confidence they
have in that forecast.
There's half-hearted attempt at desribing some of the forecasting
difficulties that the Met Office forecasters face on a daily basis, in
"The Tombs" magazine today, but it only tells a very small part of the
story.
Paul- Hide quoted text -
- Show quoted text -

21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

On Jun 28, 9:05*pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

Well he's just gained the key to my killfile.
I know where he's followed you here from, and I don't much care....

*Plonk*
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Please yourself, but he's actually dead right in every
respect, though ill-mannered.

Tudor Hughes

On Jun 29, 1:37*am, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Jun 28, 9:05*pm, "Col" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

Well he's just gained the key to my killfile.
I know where he's followed you here from, and I don't much care....

*Plonk*
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

* * * * *Please yourself, but he's actually dead right in every
respect, though ill-mannered.

Tudor Hughes- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Thank you Col, probably highly sensible. Whatever, for you, Tudor. In
your response to people you don't like, you and my stalker are
obviously very similar in more respects than you would like to think.

Back to the weather.

That really is yeuch! Nothing settled and there's some horrid-looking
forecast jetstream charts (OK, I understand that there are a few that
like cooler, wetter summer weather, but most would not like the July
weather promised by the 00z gfs!). The predicted pattern of the Jet
really does suggest last summer, after the (still uncertain) warmth of
the next few days with that possible plume.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp

Anyone looking for some settled warmth does not want a jet streaking
over central Spain in July (anyone going on holiday to the Costas, or
the Med may not love it either, with a possible mistral at 10 days,
bringing cooler air into the Western Med). It just looks awful!

Paul

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...
On Jun 28, 9:05 pm, "Col" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

Well he's just gained the key to my killfile.
I know where he's followed you here from, and I don't much care....

*Plonk*
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

Please yourself, but he's actually dead right in every
respect, though ill-mannered.

What, to criticise *everything* he says, even when it's just a
discussion on possible events?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On Jun 29, 11:59*am, "Col" wrote:
"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message

...
On Jun 28, 9:05 pm, "Col" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

Well he's just gained the key to my killfile.
I know where he's followed you here from, and I don't much care....

*Plonk*
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
* * * * Please yourself, but he's actually dead right in every
respect, though ill-mannered.

What, to criticise *everything* he says, even when it's just a
discussion on possible events?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The 06z paints the same picture as the 00z, only more so. Slow moving
low pressures and a distinct lack of warmth into the second week of
July, following a plume that is rapidly toppling. Before it does so,
still the possibility of the warmest day of the year and perhaps since
the summer of 2006. Now more likely Tuesday, than Wednesday, as that
deep low hurries in from the Atlantic. Some very warm air will be
pulled up in advance of that depression. Paris is forecast 30C for
Tuesday, on the BBC site. I think it could be a little higher, the
city could see 90F and I think somewhere in the SE/East Anglia will be
approaching approaching 30C in 2 days time. It'll be interesting to
watch the temperatures soar, in some awfully humid, enervating air.
Monday night could be an uncomfortable one with 20/21C, as a minimum,
in some unfortunate towns and cities in the SE.

The trouble then is that the low looks like it is the last stop on the
Atlantic express. The zonal conditions may end with the eradication of
that plume, but they may be replaced with conditions which really do
bring to mind last summer and flooding in Gloucester. Next weekend has
a slow moving low sitting over Southern England which could dump a lot
of rain. Wimbledon could be in for some serious rain delays.
Galstonbury, on the other hand, will probably catch no more than a
light shower this afternoon.

Paul

On Jun 29, 1:20*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jun 29, 11:59*am, "Col" wrote:





"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message

...
On Jun 28, 9:05 pm, "Col" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

21 replies just to little old me and not an ounce of meteorology
anywhere in it. You just gained the key to the door stalker!!

Well he's just gained the key to my killfile.
I know where he's followed you here from, and I don't much care....

*Plonk*
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
* * * * Please yourself, but he's actually dead right in every
respect, though ill-mannered.

What, to criticise *everything* he says, even when it's just a
discussion on possible events?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The 06z paints the same picture as the 00z, only more so. Slow moving
low pressures and a distinct lack of warmth into the second week of
July, following a plume that is rapidly toppling. Before it does so,
still the possibility of the warmest day of the year and perhaps since
the summer of 2006. Now more likely Tuesday, than Wednesday, as that
deep low hurries in from the Atlantic. Some very warm air will be
pulled up in advance of that depression. Paris is forecast 30C for
Tuesday, on the BBC site. I think it could be a little higher, the
city could see 90F and I think somewhere in the SE/East Anglia will be
approaching approaching 30C in 2 days time. It'll be interesting to
watch the temperatures soar, in some awfully humid, enervating air.
Monday night could be an uncomfortable one with 20/21C, as a minimum,
in some unfortunate towns and cities in the SE.

The trouble then is that the low looks like it is the last stop on the
Atlantic express. The zonal conditions may end with the eradication of
that plume, but they may be replaced with conditions which really do
bring to mind last summer and flooding in Gloucester. Next weekend has
a slow moving low sitting over Southern England which could dump a lot
of rain. Wimbledon could be in for some serious rain delays.
Galstonbury, on the other hand, will probably catch no more than a
light shower this afternoon.

Paul- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Good grief. Save me from charts like the last 3 gfs runs!

Paul

Good grief. Save me from charts like the last 3 gfs runs!

It seems that all the various models' forecasts have been overtly
pessimistic regarding this June. Many of Darren's interpretations of the
doom laden forecasts have not come to fruition. So, with a bit of luck it
may not end up as bad as the forecasts predict.

Keep optimistic, surely it cannot end up as bad as last year's summer!

On a happier note is has been another good day here in Devon, quite sunny,
especially later in the afternoon and a max of 21C.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk