According to CNN the Arctic sea-ice loss is now at its 2nd lowest level ever
with still three, or so, weeks to go in the melting season. The record could
still go according to the report...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/sci....ap/index.html

Joe

As a matter of interest , how many years of data do they have on the ice
thickness and is it statistically significant .
Jim Beam
"JCW" wrote in message
...
According to CNN the Arctic sea-ice loss is now at its 2nd lowest level
ever
with still three, or so, weeks to go in the melting season. The record
could
still go according to the report...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/sci....ap/index.html

Joe

On Aug 27, 7:59*pm, "jim beam"
wrote:
As a matter of interest , how many years of data do they have *on the ice
thickness and is it statistically significant .
* * * Jim Beam"JCW" wrote in message

...

According to CNN the Arctic sea-ice loss is now at its 2nd lowest level
ever
with still three, or so, weeks to go in the melting season. The record
could
still go according to the report...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/sci...e.melt.ap/inde...

Joe

The North-West Passage opened for the first time ever recorded last
year. The search for it had been going on since the 16th century.
The edge of the ice had been reported by whalers for almost as long.
Satellites have only been recording the ice extent in detail since the
1970s. Ice thickness cannot yet be achieved by satellite, so the
record of that is sketchy but pretty damning.

This chart shows the progress of ice extent so far this year:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

Here is a map that is updated daily with the ice extent.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml
Even the main North West Passage is nearly ice free, Amundsen took the
the smaller more southerly route between the islands, but that took
him thee years, as did the first traverse of the main North West
Passage in 1920s by dog sled!

What is happening now is totally unprecedented, unexpected, unnerving
and uncontrollable :-(

HTH,

Cheers, Alastair.

On Aug 27, 9:49*pm, Alastair wrote:
On Aug 27, 7:59*pm, "jim beam"
wrote:

As a matter of interest , how many years of data do they have *on the ice
thickness and is it statistically significant .
* * * Jim Beam"JCW" wrote in message

...

According to CNN the Arctic sea-ice loss is now at its 2nd lowest level
ever
with still three, or so, weeks to go in the melting season. The record
could
still go according to the report...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/sci...e.melt.ap/inde....

Joe

The North-West Passage opened for the first time ever recorded last
year. *The search for it had been going on since the 16th century.
The edge of the ice had been reported by whalers for almost as long.
Satellites have only been recording the ice extent in detail since the
1970s. *Ice thickness cannot yet be achieved by satellite, so the
record of that is sketchy but pretty damning.

This chart shows the progress of ice extent so far this year:http://nsidc..org/data/seaice_index/...timeseries.png

Here is a map that is updated daily with the ice extent.http://polar.ncep..noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml
Even the main North West Passage is nearly ice free, Amundsen took the
the smaller more southerly route between the islands, but that took
him thee years, as did the first traverse of the main North West
Passage in 1920s by dog sled!

What is happening now is totally unprecedented, unexpected, unnerving
and uncontrollable :-(

HTH,

Cheers, Alastair.

Good news then Alastair: Less energy needed for shipping routes. Now
about those sea levels.

On Aug 27, 11:25*pm, wrote:
On Aug 27, 9:49*pm, Alastair wrote:





On Aug 27, 7:59*pm, "jim beam"
wrote:

As a matter of interest , how many years of data do they have *on the ice
thickness and is it statistically significant .
* * * Jim Beam"JCW" wrote in message

...

According to CNN the Arctic sea-ice loss is now at its 2nd lowest level
ever
with still three, or so, weeks to go in the melting season. The record
could
still go according to the report...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/sci...e.melt.ap/inde...

Joe

The North-West Passage opened for the first time ever recorded last
year. *The search for it had been going on since the 16th century.
The edge of the ice had been reported by whalers for almost as long.
Satellites have only been recording the ice extent in detail since the
1970s. *Ice thickness cannot yet be achieved by satellite, so the
record of that is sketchy but pretty damning.

This chart shows the progress of ice extent so far this year:http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

Here is a map that is updated daily with the ice extent.http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml
Even the main North West Passage is nearly ice free, Amundsen took the
the smaller more southerly route between the islands, but that took
him thee years, as did the first traverse of the main North West
Passage in 1920s by dog sled!

What is happening now is totally unprecedented, unexpected, unnerving
and uncontrollable :-(

HTH,

Cheers, Alastair.

Good news then Alastair: Less energy needed for shipping routes. Now
about those sea levels.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Lawrence,

You'll be pleased to hear that both the North-West and the North-East
(north of Siberia) Passages are now open. See:
http://www.seaice.dk/iwicos/latest/a...b.20080827.gif

Once the Arctic sea ice has gone completely, the Greenland melt should
really speed up, so don't put those gum boots away yet.

Cheers, Alastair.

On Aug 27, 11:52*pm, Alastair wrote:
On Aug 27, 11:25*pm, wrote:





On Aug 27, 9:49*pm, Alastair wrote:

On Aug 27, 7:59*pm, "jim beam"
wrote:

As a matter of interest , how many years of data do they have *on the ice
thickness and is it statistically significant .
* * * Jim Beam"JCW" wrote in message

...

According to CNN the Arctic sea-ice loss is now at its 2nd lowest level
ever
with still three, or so, weeks to go in the melting season. The record
could
still go according to the report...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/sci...e.melt.ap/inde...

Joe

The North-West Passage opened for the first time ever recorded last
year. *The search for it had been going on since the 16th century.
The edge of the ice had been reported by whalers for almost as long.
Satellites have only been recording the ice extent in detail since the
1970s. *Ice thickness cannot yet be achieved by satellite, so the
record of that is sketchy but pretty damning.

This chart shows the progress of ice extent so far this year:http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

Here is a map that is updated daily with the ice extent.http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml
Even the main North West Passage is nearly ice free, Amundsen took the
the smaller more southerly route between the islands, but that took
him thee years, as did the first traverse of the main North West
Passage in 1920s by dog sled!

What is happening now is totally unprecedented, unexpected, unnerving
and uncontrollable :-(

HTH,

Cheers, Alastair.

Good news then Alastair: Less energy needed for shipping routes. Now
about those sea levels.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Lawrence,

You'll be pleased to hear that both the North-West and the North-East
(north of Siberia) Passages are now open. See:http://www.seaice.dk/iwicos/latest/a...b.20080827.gif

Once the Arctic sea ice has gone completely, the Greenland melt should
really speed up, so don't put those gum boots away yet.

Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It'll still be close, though I would still not back a record low this
year. 3 weeks to go. warmth to the north of Canada will accentuate
melting there, over the next week, but it looks colder after that.

There is very little evidence, however, that Greenland ice melt would
speed up with no Arctic end of summer ice (that's all we are talking
about Alistair, there will always be winter ice, GW, or not!). Less
ice could mean greater evaporation and more snowfall in areas
surrounding the Arctic (it's a could, I'm not sure if I buy that one).
Thus, Greenland glaciers catchments could receive more snowfall and
thus produce more ice. The timespans in this are likely to be much
longer than human livespans too.

Paul

There is very little evidence, however, that Greenland ice melt would
speed up with no Arctic end of summer ice (that's all we are talking
about Alistair, there will always be winter ice, GW, or not!).

Paul, during the Eocene period much of the geography had similarities to
that of today but the main difference was that there was no permanent
ice/snow anywhere on the planet, even in winter. The Arctic Ocean was
ice-free as was the Antarctic landmass all year round. Deciduous forest grew
right up to the shores of the Arctic Ocean itself in what is represented by
northern Canada & Siberia today, and all over Antarctica. These areas had a
climate similar to the southern France region today.

There is evidence showing that the atmosphere contained more CO2 and other
greenhouse gases than today such as nitrous oxide and methane. Warming is
exaggerated at the poles (as we are seeing now) and evidence from the early
Eocene period shows that it does not take much of a shift to lose any
permanent ice from the planet. Once the Arctic Ocean has lost its sea ice
(which requires a great deal of energy to the solid-liquid phase change),
then there is not much else to stop ocean warming rapidly. The Arctic Ocean
could represent a huge heat sink which may then slowly release the stored
heat of summer through the Arctic winter preventing temperatures from
dropping. If this does happen then it is predicted to happen quickly and
brings with it the possibility of a world-wide shift in climates and all the
associated problems of food production and worldwide famine.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk

On Aug 30, 4:04*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 27, 11:52*pm, Alastair wrote:



On Aug 27, 11:25*pm, wrote:

On Aug 27, 9:49*pm, Alastair wrote:

On Aug 27, 7:59*pm, "jim beam"
wrote:

As a matter of interest , how many years of data do they have *on the ice
thickness and is it statistically significant .
* * * Jim Beam"JCW" wrote in message

...

According to CNN the Arctic sea-ice loss is now at its 2nd lowest level
ever
with still three, or so, weeks to go in the melting season. The record
could
still go according to the report...

http://edition.cnn.com/2008/TECH/sci...e.melt.ap/inde...

Joe

The North-West Passage opened for the first time ever recorded last
year. *The search for it had been going on since the 16th century..
The edge of the ice had been reported by whalers for almost as long..
Satellites have only been recording the ice extent in detail since the
1970s. *Ice thickness cannot yet be achieved by satellite, so the
record of that is sketchy but pretty damning.

This chart shows the progress of ice extent so far this year:http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

Here is a map that is updated daily with the ice extent.http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/nh.xml
Even the main North West Passage is nearly ice free, Amundsen took the
the smaller more southerly route between the islands, but that took
him thee years, as did the first traverse of the main North West
Passage in 1920s by dog sled!

What is happening now is totally unprecedented, unexpected, unnerving
and uncontrollable :-(

HTH,

Cheers, Alastair.

Good news then Alastair: Less energy needed for shipping routes. Now
about those sea levels.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Lawrence,

You'll be pleased to hear that both the North-West and the North-East
(north of Siberia) Passages are now open. See:http://www.seaice.dk/iwicos/latest/a...b.20080827.gif

Once the Arctic sea ice has gone completely, the Greenland melt should
really speed up, so don't put those gum boots away yet.

Cheers, Alastair.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It'll still be close, though I would still not back a record low this
year. 3 weeks to go. warmth to the north of Canada will accentuate
melting there, over the next week, but it looks colder after that.

There is very little evidence, however, that Greenland ice melt would
speed up with no Arctic end of summer ice (that's all we are talking
about Alistair, there will always be winter ice, GW, or not!). Less
ice could mean greater evaporation and more snowfall in areas
surrounding the Arctic (it's a could, I'm not sure if I buy that one).
Thus, Greenland glaciers catchments could receive more snowfall and
thus produce more ice. The timespans in this are likely to be much
longer than human livespans too.

Paul

It is not just a matter of no Arctic summer ice. That is the common
belief, but it was thought that even that state would not happen until
the end of this century. That was optimism and optimism is a
dangerous thing in science.

As far back as the 1920's CEP Brooks pointed out in "Climate through
the Ages" that it is the sea ice that keeps the Arctic cold. The
solid surface allows the air temperature to drop well below freezing
would not possible with an open ocean.The cold surface sinks and is
replaced by a warmer one. He estimated that a rise of 2C would lead to
an ice free ocean.

Less ice would lead to more evaporation, and to more clouds. Clouds
produce the main greenhouse effect, and so they too would keep the
Arctic warm during the winter and prevent new ice forming.

But I too am doubtful on the effect on Greenland and the other polar
continental regions. A warmer Arctic ocean will lead to more
precipitation and in the cold continental interiors to snow. The
water that formed the ice for the two mile thick ice sheets that
covered north America and Scandanavia almost certainly originated in
the Arctic. Will an ice free Arctic lead to these reforming, or will
Greenland collapse producing a MWP 2A http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mel****er_pulse_1A

Note: MWP 1A took a maximum of 500 years. If it occurred at (or
caused) the Older Dryas abrupt climate change, then it may have
happened within three years or less!

We may yet see whethre I am correct :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

On Aug 31, 11:06*am, "Nick Gardner"
wrote:
There is very little evidence, however, that Greenland ice melt would

speed up with no Arctic end of summer ice (that's all we are talking
about Alistair, there will always be winter ice, GW, or not!).

Paul, during the Eocene period much of the geography had similarities to
that of today but the main difference was that there was no permanent
ice/snow anywhere on the planet, even in winter. The Arctic Ocean was
ice-free as was the Antarctic landmass all year round. Deciduous forest grew
right up to the shores of the Arctic Ocean itself in what is represented by
northern Canada & Siberia today, and all over Antarctica. These areas had a
climate similar to the southern France region today.

There is evidence showing that the atmosphere contained more CO2 and other
greenhouse gases than today such as nitrous oxide and methane. Warming is
exaggerated at the poles (as we are seeing now) and evidence from the early
Eocene period shows that it does not take much of a shift to lose any
permanent ice from the planet. Once the Arctic Ocean has lost its sea ice
(which requires a great deal of energy to the solid-liquid phase change),
then there is not much else to stop ocean warming rapidly. The Arctic Ocean
could represent a huge heat sink which may then slowly release the stored
heat of summer through the Arctic winter preventing temperatures from
dropping. If this does happen then it is predicted to happen quickly and
brings with it the possibility of a world-wide shift in climates and all the
associated problems of food production and worldwide famine.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amslhttp://www.ottervalley.co.uk

I know Nick, I'm meaning in our lifetimes. I don't buy the idea of
very short term paradigm shifts here, but there are a lot of ifs and
coulds, which, of course, could occur. The sutting down of the NAD is
another very low possiblity outcome which may affect us, but high
odds, low possibility outcomes do occur!

Paul

coulds, which, of course, could occur. The sutting down of the NAD is
another very low possiblity outcome which may affect us, but high
odds, low possibility outcomes do occur!

I've never really taken the shutting down of the NAD seriously because it is
predominantly wind driven.
________________
Nick.
Otter Valley, Devon
83 m amsl
http://www.ottervalley.co.uk