Pete L wrote:

Did anybody see the article in the Daily Telegraph today (Tues)? Lord
Stern, apparently an 'expert', has written a new book on global
warming. According to the DT he states that temperatures may rise by
6C (DT slips in 43F!!!!) and alligators could live at the North Pole!
I guess average temps at the NP in Winter are around -40 degs and
about zero in mid Summer. So those lucky old 'gators are going to have
fun at -34 degs in Winter and will be getting heat stroke in balmy
temperatures of 6 degs in Summer! No wonder there are sceptics like me
around when such total rubbish is being fed to the press.....

The press are the undefeated champions at making sows' ears out of silk
purses. My experience with them has proved that they can be fed the
equivalent of a gourmet meal but what comes out of the other end after
they've digested it is something else entirely different.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy

On Apr 21, 6:38*pm, Pete L wrote:
On 21 Apr, 14:48, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:



On 21 Apr, 08:17, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:09, Paul Hyett wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2009 at 15:03:18, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

It could be just a blip in the general trend, nothing works to a
perfect rhythm, so I'm not convinced. The past 12 months the UK has
seen quite a number of cooler months, but my gut feeling is we've seen
the last of them for a while, infact April is looking particularly
warmer than average, but we will have to see what the summer brings,
but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher temperatures again. Even a
massive volcanic eruption would only slow the trend down for a year or
two.

I've heard that solar activity is the lowest for about a century, so
that could well be overriding any man-made climate effects.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Yes, I just found this on the BBC website:

Scientists warn sun has dimmedhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8009492.stm

An interesting peice of the puzzle.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Now if this doesn't bring a long hot dry summer, I'll "Eat my hat" ;-)

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8010322.stm

Keith (Southend)

Did anybody see the article in the Daily Telegraph today (Tues)? Lord
Stern, apparently an 'expert', has written a new book on global
warming. According to the DT he states that temperatures may rise by
6C (DT slips in 43F!!!!) and alligators could live at the North Pole!
I guess average temps at the NP in Winter are around -40 degs and
about zero in mid Summer. So those lucky old 'gators are going to have
fun at -34 degs in Winter and will be getting heat stroke in balmy
temperatures of 6 degs in Summer! No wonder there are sceptics like me
around when such total rubbish is being fed to the press.....

Presumably you are referring to this:
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/richard...cholas%20stern

What you are missing is that a global temperature rise of 6C means a
12 C in the UK and 24C at the poles, but quite warm enough for
alligators.

Cheers, Alastair.

On 21 Apr, 21:18, Alastair wrote:
On Apr 21, 6:38*pm, Pete L wrote:



On 21 Apr, 14:48, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:17, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:09, Paul Hyett wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2009 at 15:03:18, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

It could be just a blip in the general trend, nothing works to a
perfect rhythm, so I'm not convinced. The past 12 months the UK has
seen quite a number of cooler months, but my gut feeling is we've seen
the last of them for a while, infact April is looking particularly
warmer than average, but we will have to see what the summer brings,
but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher temperatures again. Even a
massive volcanic eruption would only slow the trend down for a year or
two.

I've heard that solar activity is the lowest for about a century, so
that could well be overriding any man-made climate effects.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Yes, I just found this on the BBC website:

Scientists warn sun has dimmedhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8009492.stm

An interesting peice of the puzzle.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Now if this doesn't bring a long hot dry summer, I'll "Eat my hat" ;-)

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8010322.stm

Keith (Southend)

Did anybody see the article in the Daily Telegraph today (Tues)? Lord
Stern, apparently an 'expert', has written a new book on global
warming. According to the DT he states that temperatures may rise by
6C (DT slips in 43F!!!!) and alligators could live at the North Pole!
I guess average temps at the NP in Winter are around -40 degs and
about zero in mid Summer. So those lucky old 'gators are going to have
fun at -34 degs in Winter and will be getting heat stroke in balmy
temperatures of 6 degs in Summer! No wonder there are sceptics like me
around when such total rubbish is being fed to the press.....

Presumably you are referring to this:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/richard...blog_post/nich...

What you are missing is that a global temperature rise of 6C means a
12 C in the UK and 24C at the poles, but quite warm enough for
alligators.

Cheers, Alastair.

I've never seen these figures in any publication - where did they come
from? It doesn't seem very realistic to me.My -40 North Pole winter
temp becomes -16, which is cold enough. Summer temp of zero now
becoming +24 and this over open sea water? Sorry, I just think this
defies all common sense.

On Apr 21, 8:09*am, Paul Hyett wrote:
On Mon, 20 Apr 2009 at 15:03:18, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote in uk.sci.weather :



It could be just a blip in the general trend, nothing works to a
perfect rhythm, so I'm not convinced. The past 12 months the UK has
seen quite a number of cooler months, but my gut feeling is we've seen
the last of them for a while, infact April is looking particularly
warmer than average, but we will have to see what the summer brings,
but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher temperatures again. Even a
massive volcanic eruption would only slow the trend down for a year or
two.

I've heard that solar activity is the lowest for about a century, so
that could well be overriding any man-made climate effects.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

How much of a correlation is there between solar activity,
i.e. sunspots and solar flares etc, and solar output. No-one ever
seems to explain this and I have a suspicion that there is lot more to
it than merely assuming the sun is hotter when it is active, i.e.
spotty, and cooler when quiescent. The coincidence of the Maunder
Minimum and a particularly cold period in Europe may be no more than
that, a coincidence. It was not possible to measure solar output in
the 17th century but are there any modern measurements that show that
the sun could have been cooler? Should we assume that fewer spots
equals dimmer?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

* * * * How much of a correlation is there between solar activity,
i.e. sunspots and solar flares etc, and solar output. *No-one ever
seems to explain this and I have a suspicion that there is lot more to
it than merely assuming the sun is hotter when it is active, i.e.
spotty, and cooler when quiescent. *The *coincidence of the Maunder
Minimum and a particularly cold period in Europe may be no more than
that, a coincidence. *It was not possible to measure solar output in
the 17th century but are there any modern measurements that show that
the sun could have been cooler? *Should we assume that fewer spots
equals dimmer?

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

It was thought in the 20th Century that since sunspots are dark then
more of them would mean less radiation and a cooler world. But that
seems to be the converse of the truth. The Maunder Minimum, a name
chosen for its alliteration, was given as an example of why less
sunspots means a cooler world.

The idea that the radiation from the sun is a constant (solar
constant) is based on an 18th Century concept that God created the
world and then let it like run a clockwork machine, al la Newton.

Cheers, Alastair.

On Apr 21, 9:15*pm, Pete L wrote:
On 21 Apr, 21:18, Alastair wrote:



On Apr 21, 6:38*pm, Pete L wrote:

On 21 Apr, 14:48, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:17, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:09, Paul Hyett wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2009 at 15:03:18, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

It could be just a blip in the general trend, nothing works to a
perfect rhythm, so I'm not convinced. The past 12 months the UK has
seen quite a number of cooler months, but my gut feeling is we've seen
the last of them for a while, infact April is looking particularly
warmer than average, but we will have to see what the summer brings,
but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher temperatures again. Even a
massive volcanic eruption would only slow the trend down for a year or
two.

I've heard that solar activity is the lowest for about a century, so
that could well be overriding any man-made climate effects.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)

Yes, I just found this on the BBC website:

Scientists warn sun has dimmedhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8009492.stm

An interesting peice of the puzzle.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Now if this doesn't bring a long hot dry summer, I'll "Eat my hat" ;-)

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8010322.stm

Keith (Southend)

Did anybody see the article in the Daily Telegraph today (Tues)? Lord
Stern, apparently an 'expert', has written a new book on global
warming. According to the DT he states that temperatures may rise by
6C (DT slips in 43F!!!!) and alligators could live at the North Pole!
I guess average temps at the NP in Winter are around -40 degs and
about zero in mid Summer. So those lucky old 'gators are going to have
fun at -34 degs in Winter and will be getting heat stroke in balmy
temperatures of 6 degs in Summer! No wonder there are sceptics like me
around when such total rubbish is being fed to the press.....

Presumably you are referring to this:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/richard...blog_post/nich...

What you are missing is that a global temperature rise of 6C means a
12 C in the UK and 24C at the poles, but quite warm enough for
alligators.

Cheers, Alastair.

I've never seen these figures in any publication - where did they come
from? It doesn't seem very realistic to me.My -40 North Pole winter
temp becomes -16, which is cold enough. Summer temp of zero now
becoming +24 and this over open sea water? Sorry, I just think this
defies all common sense.

Before I go searching for the source of my figures, which you will
ridicule anyway, what is the source of your figures?

I am not prepared to enter into a serious debate with you unless you
can back up your facts.

Cheers, Alastair.

Alastair wrote:

On Apr 21, 9:15 pm, Pete L wrote:
On 21 Apr, 21:18, Alastair wrote:



On Apr 21, 6:38 pm, Pete L wrote:

On 21 Apr, 14:48, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:17, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:

On 21 Apr, 08:09, Paul Hyett
wrote:

On Mon, 20 Apr 2009 at 15:03:18, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote in uk.sci.weather :

It could be just a blip in the general trend, nothing works
to a
perfect rhythm, so I'm not convinced. The past 12 months the
UK has
seen quite a number of cooler months, but my gut feeling is
we've seen
the last of them for a while, infact April is looking
particularly
warmer than average, but we will have to see what the summer
brings,
but I wouldn't be surprised to see higher temperatures
again. Even a
massive volcanic eruption would only slow the trend down for
a year or
two.

I've heard that solar activity is the lowest for about a
century, so
that could well be overriding any man-made climate effects.
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder'
to email me)

Yes, I just found this on the BBC website:

Scientists warn sun has
dimmedhttp://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8009492.stm

An interesting peice of the puzzle.

Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Now if this doesn't bring a long hot dry summer, I'll "Eat my
hat" ;-)

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8010322.stm

Keith (Southend)

Did anybody see the article in the Daily Telegraph today (Tues)?
Lord
Stern, apparently an 'expert', has written a new book on global
warming. According to the DT he states that temperatures may rise
by
6C (DT slips in 43F!!!!) and alligators could live at the North
Pole!
I guess average temps at the NP in Winter are around -40 degs and
about zero in mid Summer. So those lucky old 'gators are going to
have
fun at -34 degs in Winter and will be getting heat stroke in balmy
temperatures of 6 degs in Summer! No wonder there are sceptics like
me
around when such total rubbish is being fed to the press.....

Presumably you are referring to
this:http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/richard...blog_post/nich...

What you are missing is that a global temperature rise of 6C means a
12 C in the UK and 24C at the poles, but quite warm enough for
alligators.

Cheers, Alastair.

I've never seen these figures in any publication - where did they come
from? It doesn't seem very realistic to me.My -40 North Pole winter
temp becomes -16, which is cold enough. Summer temp of zero now
becoming +24 and this over open sea water? Sorry, I just think this
defies all common sense.

Before I go searching for the source of my figures, which you will
ridicule anyway, what is the source of your figures?

I am not prepared to enter into a serious debate with you unless you
can back up your facts.


Which facts are you querying? Pete's use of -40C in winter and 0C as the
average temps for the NP seems reasonable to me. The only other figures
he's used are your own.

What I would suggest as the mistake Pete has made is to apply your 24C
Polar correction equally across Winter and Summer. Such a rise - or even a
much smaller one - would see most of the Arctic Ocean ice-free throughout
the year. This lack of ice in Winter could mean a rise of about 40C to
near 0c but Summer temperatures, to achieve the 24C annual rise could rise
to 8C.

The only projection I have for distribution of temperatures is over thirty
years old - I need to get a bit more up-to-date - and, for a 3C global
rise, has local rises of around 2C from the equator to near 40N and 10C
North of 80N. The UK latitude would be 3.5-4C.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy

The idea that the radiation from the sun is a constant (solar
constant) is based on an 18th Century concept that God created the
world and then let it like run a clockwork machine, al la Newton.

Cheers, Alastair.


I'm not sure that your reference to Newton is correct Alastair. AFAIK he
believed specifically in intervention rather than a purely docetist view
(e.g.comets). I get rather concerned with the factuality of sweeping
generalisations as to the origins of scientific understanding, much as
some of the origins of language can at times be ambiguous.

Cheers

--
James Brown

Which facts are you querying? Pete's use of -40C in winter and 0C as the
average temps for the NP seems reasonable to me. The only other figures
he's used are your own.

I am not querying Pete's values. What I want to know is what his
source is, so that I can use a similar one without fear of being told
my source is unacceptable.

But -40C seems to me more typical of Siberia and Antarctica rather
than the Arctic where I would have thought the average was closer to
-20C.

In fact 20 C is the average of 0C and -40C quoted in Wikipedia for
winter temperatures. See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_Arctic

What I would suggest as the mistake Pete has made is to apply your 24C
Polar correction equally across Winter and Summer. Such a rise - or even a
much smaller one - would see most of the Arctic Ocean ice-free throughout
the year. This lack of ice in Winter could mean a rise of about 40C to
near 0c but Summer temperatures, to achieve the 24C annual rise could rise
to 8C.

My figures were very much "finger in the air." They were only
intended to show it was feasible for alligators to return to the
Arctic.
http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.c...=A1ARTA0010389

One could analyse the polar amplification that has happened over the
last 100 years, but then as they say "Past performance is no guide to
the future."

The only projection I have for distribution of temperatures is over thirty
years old - I need to get a bit more up-to-date - and, for a 3C global
rise, has local rises of around 2C from the equator to near 40N and 10C
North of 80N. The UK latitude would be 3.5-4C.

Interesting, and it roughly bears out my crude figures of equatorial
warming equal to the global value, double the equatorial warming in
the UK, and double again in the Arctic.

Oh well I have dug out some facts after all, wasting a morning
preparing this post :-(. Never mind.

Cheers, Alastair.

On Apr 23, 8:53*am, James Brown
wrote:
The idea that the radiation from the sun is a constant (solar
constant) is based on an 18th Century concept that God created the
world and then let it like run a clockwork machine, al la Newton.

Cheers, Alastair.

I'm not sure that your reference to Newton is correct Alastair. AFAIK he
believed specifically in intervention rather than a purely docetist view
(e.g.comets). I get rather concerned with the factuality of sweeping
generalisations as to the origins of scientific understanding, much as
some of the origins of language can at times be ambiguous.

Cheers

--
James Brown

I didn't mean that 17th C Newton thought that. I was referring to the
18th C Deists who thought that the Newton had proved that the world/
universe was like a clockwork machine, but even they probably did not
all believe the same things.

I have not gone into it very deeply so I may be wrong, and am very
willing to hear more about it.

Cheers, Alastair.