"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

I didn't see it; I don't look at your site Will, but well done for
pointing to it. Was it on the 00z? I've been out and haven't seen the
models; then it jumped out at me and I opened the thread! You were
right to give it "moderate confidence", but that confidence has
increased a notch by the low lasting for another run. Hard to figure
why the MetO didn't give it a mention in the late morning 6-15 day
update when it was clearly on both models.

The 6-15 day forecast you quoted talked of wet and windy conditions at
times with a risk of gales. I'm not sure what else you expect at this
range, unless of course you think it merits a very early warning of
severe gales
(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._warnings.html)
and given the uncertainty regarding depth and track of the low on both
deterministic and ensemble output, it doesn't.

Jon.


Doesn't the ' wet and windy . . . with a risk of gales' (actually
'windy at times, especially in the northwest where there is a risk of
gales' ) refer to the second week of the 6-15 day ?
Though it is usually difficult to tell which week is being talked about
in that period. They did use dates within the text for a short while
but then stopped.

Tom

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jul 24, 3:55 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
I issued my update this morning Paul. Did you see that, as I used the
phrase
"heads up" ?http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



Just an early heads up.

Both the gfs and the ECM have a fair old wet blow on the cards for
next week, possibly arriving next Thursday. Nothing on the MetO site
yet; this is what they have to say about next week and this was only
issued a few hours ago:

6-15 day forecast:

Initially southern and eastern areas are likely to be dry and very
warm with sunny spells but in the north and west cloud and rain is
likely on Wednesday. Some rain is then likely to reach the southeast
Thursday, to be followed by a return to sunshine and showers later in
the week and over the weekend. During the following week we are
currently expecting an unsettled southwesterly airstream, with showers
and also some longer periods of rain for most areas, especially the
northwest, with the best of the drier, brighter weather in
southeastern parts. It will be windy at times, especially in the
northwest where there is a risk of gales. Temperatures are likely to
be generally near normal, but probably occasionally warmer in the
southeast.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 24 Jul 2009

It's the agreement between the two models that makes this interesting
for me and it is less than a week away. If this low does turn up, it
would be a very unusual example of a deep low appearing on the model
output well under the 10-day radar and actualy under the 7-day radar.
That doesn't often happen. Neither model was showing this deep low
earlier this morning. It could be gone on both by this evening, but
the agreement would suggest not.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I didn't see it; I don't look at your site Will, but well done for
pointing to it. Was it on the 00z? I've been out and haven't seen the
models; then it jumped out at me and I opened the thread! You were
right to give it "moderate confidence", but that confidence has
increased a notch by the low lasting for another run. Hard to figure
why the MetO didn't give it a mention in the late morning 6-15 day
update when it was clearly on both models. It may not achieve
outcome, but as you say, it is still there on the 12z. Very unusual
for such a feature not to have been modelled on both the ECM and the
gfs charts before this morning and then to be modelled as deepening so
much. There probably was a low modelled before the 06z, but it was
nothing that attracted my attention.

====

As you say, there was a less threatening looking low on 00Z.
The 06Z had come in when I wrote the forecast and that was backed up by 00Z
GFS ensembles and 00Z ECMWF. It also "had that look about it".

Will
--

On Jul 24, 11:13*pm, "Tom Allen" wrote:
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message

...





"Dawlish" wrote in message
....

I didn't see it; I don't look at your site Will, but well done for
pointing to it. Was it on the 00z? I've been out and haven't seen the
models; then it jumped out at me and I opened the thread! You were
right to give it "moderate confidence", but that confidence has
increased a notch by the low lasting for another run. Hard to figure
why the MetO didn't give it a mention in the late morning 6-15 day
update when it was clearly on both models.

The 6-15 day forecast you quoted talked of wet and windy conditions at
times with a risk of gales. I'm not sure what else you expect at this
range, unless of course you think it merits a very early warning of
severe gales
(http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._warnings.html)
and given the uncertainty regarding depth and track of the low on both
deterministic and ensemble output, it doesn't.

Jon.

Doesn't the ' wet and windy . . . with a risk of gales' *(actually
'windy at times, especially in the northwest where there is a risk of
gales' ) refer to the second week of the 6-15 day ?
Though it is usually difficult to tell which week is being talked about
in that period. *They did use dates within the text for a short while
but then stopped.

Tom- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

You are right Tom, Jon's mis-read the forecast. It's understandable,
because without any divisions in the timescale 6-15 days and only a
few short lines of prose, any forecaster would find it difficult to
express accurately what the MetO is thinking and that comes over in
the lack of detail in the forecast. The only reference to Thursday in
that 6-15 day forecast is here " Some rain is then likely to reach the
southeast Thursday....... ". That is still on the forecast as it is
only updated about once a day; probably in a tea break *)). I feel
that the MetO think the same way I do on this; it is just too
difficult, on most occasions to forecast accurately at anything over
about a week. That's why 10 days worth of forecasts are compressed
into 5 lines, with no more detail than that anywhere else on the
site.

Jon, I know you mean well here and you may just be referring to
"severe" weather warnings, but you can't post (very low) accuracy
figures at me one day and then say; " I'm not sure what else you
expect at this range", a couple of days later. That doesn't add up. We
were talking about a general forecast at only 6 days hence when I
opened this thread. I know that severe weather warnings can't be
issued a week in advance - they have been shown to be pretty hopeless,
for many people, at just 6 HOURS during this last week! However, as
Will did, I did and other websites have done (3 people I've seen used
the same term!) there was enough evidence yesterday morning to have
given the public at least a "heads up" and mentioned the possibility
of this next Thursday, surely? The whole thing still may not happen
(always judge a forecast at outcome) but I'll be interested to see
what gets into next Thursday's forecasts as it comes into the 5-day
timeframe later today.

The deep summer low is still there this morning on the gfs, but is
centred a little further north, taking the potential gales further
North with it. I think that trend may continue and only the NW may end
up at risk of actual gales, but I would have rated the chance high
enough yesterday for a small "heads up" as part of the UK, the NW, at
least wil probably see gales and strong winds are likely to affect
most other areas. The FAX charts for next Wednesday would indicate
something more lively and further south as that low pushes in. ECM 12
z from yestaerday centres the low somewhere between the two. 00z just
being published.

As always, an interesting week's model watching ahead.

Dawlish wrote:

However, as Will did, I did and other websites have done (3 people I've seen used
the same term!) there was enough evidence yesterday morning to have
given the public at least a "heads up" and mentioned the possibility
of this next Thursday, surely?

"It will be windy at times, especially in the northwest where there is
a risk of gales" referred to the entire period of the forecast as do
the temperatures, however, I can understand if it was thought that
this section only referred to the following week.

The latest Monthly Outlook is very interesting, by the way, you may
want to start that subscription now ;-)

Jon.

PS What's a tea break ?

On Jul 25, 9:04*am, wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
However, as Will did, I did and other websites have done (3 people I've seen used
the same term!) there was enough evidence yesterday morning to have
given the public at least a *"heads up" and mentioned the possibility
of this next Thursday, surely?

"It will be windy at times, especially in the northwest where there is
a risk of gales" referred to the entire period of the forecast as do
the temperatures, however, I can understand if it was thought that
this section only referred to the following week.

The latest Monthly Outlook is very interesting, by the way, you may
want to start that subscription now ;-)

Jon.

PS What's a tea break ?

Funny that after reading the forecast Tom and I thought the exact
opposite and odd that the reference to "windy in the NW with a risk of
gales", followed the phrase "in the following week", which was
prefaced by a (far too short) discussion of the weather out to next
weekend? We must have misunderstood........

Anyway, tea breaks are when forecasters get a chance to put their
finger out of the window and see if it is windy, or raining. Everyone
knows that. *))

On Sat, 25 Jul 2009 00:12:21 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:


The deep summer low is still there this morning on the gfs, but is
centred a little further north, taking the potential gales further
North with it.

How deep is deep? I had rather thought we had some deep lows already
this summer??
I always remember ex Charlie back in c 1989

"Robin Nicholson" wrote in
message ...
On Sat, 25 Jul 2009 00:12:21 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:


The deep summer low is still there this morning on the gfs, but is
centred a little further north, taking the potential gales further
North with it.

How deep is deep? I had rather thought we had some deep lows already
this summer??
I always remember ex Charlie back in c 1989

There is no figure, but I would say that any low near the UK in summer with
980s central pressure is a deep one. I personally tend to use the word deep
to convey the idea of strong winds wrapped around it. The details of this
low eveolution will be interesting as I fancy it will develop quickly as
positive potential vorticity forcing links in with the system. Strongest
winds should be on the southern flank and it might even beome double-centred
with the southern portion "squeezing" the isobars to produce severe gales in
the Irish Sea or even further south. Latest 00Z ECMWF has the centre just
off northwest Northern Ireland at 00Z Thursday with depth circa 988hPa. GFS
00Z ensemble mean has a centre off western Scotland but with some members
showing a deep secondary low further south over Ireland. As Dawlish has
said, an interesting few days coming up!

Will
--

On Jul 25, 10:09*am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Robin Nicholson" wrote in
messagenews:k4il651n1f9253pum93rsa97bc8p97istv@4ax .com...

On Sat, 25 Jul 2009 00:12:21 -0700 (PDT), Dawlish
wrote:

The deep summer low is still there this morning on the gfs, but is
centred a little further north, taking the potential gales further
North with it.

How deep is deep? I had rather thought we had some deep lows already
this summer??
I always remember ex Charlie back in c 1989

There is no figure, but I would say that any low near the UK in summer with
980s central pressure is a deep one. I personally tend to use the word deep
to convey the idea of strong winds wrapped around it. The details of this
low eveolution will be interesting as I fancy it will develop quickly as
positive potential vorticity forcing links in with the system. Strongest
winds should be on the southern flank and it might even beome double-centred
with the southern portion "squeezing" the isobars to produce severe gales in
the Irish Sea or even further south. Latest 00Z ECMWF has the centre just
off northwest Northern Ireland at 00Z Thursday with depth circa 988hPa. GFS
00Z ensemble mean has a centre off western Scotland but with some members
showing a deep secondary low further south over Ireland. As Dawlish has
said, an interesting few days coming up!

Will
--

MetO heads up.....about a day late, but it's there now.

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:
Sunshine and showers for all on Monday. Fine in the southeast Tuesday,
with showers elsewhere. Wet, windy conditions in the north and west
Wednesday will spread east.

Updated: 0824 on Sat 25 Jul 2009

In article ,
Jim Smith writes:
Just in time for the start of the Edgbaston Test. :-(

Now we're one up, I can face that with more equanimity. To be serious,
it would obviously be unfortunate for the spectators. Perhaps the worst
of the rain will have cleared by 11am.
--
John Hall "Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always
pays off now." Anon

On Jul 25, 10:56*am, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Jim Smith writes:

Just in time for the start of the Edgbaston Test. :-(

Now we're one up, I can face that with more equanimity. To be serious,
it would obviously be unfortunate for the spectators. Perhaps the worst
of the rain will have cleared by 11am.
--
John Hall * * * *"Hard work often pays off after time, but laziness always
* * * * * * * * * pays off now." *Anon

I tell 'ee Thursday looks interesting. I've seldom seen such a
difference between the forecast position of a the centre of a low, at
only 96 hours, between the ECM and the gfs. One, or both, of those
models is having problems handling this.

The gfs has the low's main centre to the east of Iceland, with a
secondary low crossing the north of Scotland.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Whereas the ECM has the same controlling low to the east of Iceland,
but the secondary low sits slap bang over Dawlish!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

That's an 800 mile diffence in positioning the low centre, between the
two models at 96 hours. In the next 4 days, something has to give, but
both solutions show a windy and wet day. At 4 days, you'd be better
off backing the ECM, but it is not always correct. Both solutions
ought to produce some play in the Test, as the weather will move
eastwards very sharpish during Thursday, but a full day's play looks
very unlikely. The ECM chart will have Brittany's tourist beaches and
gites battening down the hatches. If the low ends up one hundred miles
north and it will be the south coast that suffers the brunt. I'm
beginning not to like Thursday. I think I'll put the golf on hold for
that day.

PS Imagine what the weather blogosphere would be like if that ECM
outcome wasn't for 30th July, but was for 30th January!