the biggest irony is youre still posting your better than the met.

come on , give us a forecast for the uk based on the pressure berne.


Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 5, 7:30 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....
Phil
Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

The biggest irony was that that the models changed on the exact day
that the updated forecast was released. I only have so much sympathy
in this for the MetO, as it was so badly handled as all the evidence
points to seasonal forecasting being, at best, a nascent area of
meteorolgy. To attach any kind of confidence to these forecasts is
just asking for trouble. That's not a snipe over this particular
summer, I've been banging on about the fact that seasonal forecasting
has very low accuracy outcomes for years*. I do feel sorry for the
desk forecasters and those at the Hadley Centre, as this summer's
awful forecasts will be used as "evidence" for not trusting models for
the future, or for glossing over the excellent progress at forecasting
from 3-5 days. Unfortunately for the MetO, the next 10 days, or so,
are looking like BBQ and beach weather 8)) . Grab your sunhats and
get out there!

*The coming Internet winter forecasts from "respected forecasters" are
no more than a bit of fun, no matter who isuues them and no matter how
many telecommunication "signals" they may have spotted!

On Aug 5, 10:42*pm, terry tibbs wrote:
the biggest irony is youre still posting your better than the met.

come on *, give us a forecast for the uk based on the pressure berne.



Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 5, 7:30 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather, the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....
Phil
Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

The biggest irony was that that the models changed on the exact day
that the updated forecast was released. I only have so much sympathy
in this for the MetO, as it was so badly handled as all the evidence
points to seasonal forecasting being, at best, a nascent area of
meteorolgy. To attach any kind of confidence to these forecasts is
just asking for trouble. That's not a snipe over this particular
summer, I've been banging on about the fact that seasonal forecasting
has very low accuracy outcomes for years*. I do feel sorry for the
desk forecasters and those at the Hadley Centre, as this summer's
awful forecasts will be used as "evidence" for not trusting models for
the future, or for glossing over the excellent progress at forecasting
from 3-5 days. Unfortunately for the MetO, the next 10 days, or so,
are looking like BBQ and beach weather 8)) . Grab your sunhats and
get out there!

*The coming Internet winter forecasts from "respected forecasters" are
no more than a bit of fun, no matter who isuues them and no matter how
many telecommunication "signals" they may have spotted!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Nope; didn't get a word, stalker.

In article
,
Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 5, 7:30 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled
weather, the progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

Now now, Phil :-)

Will

As any 'old hand' at weather forecasting will tell you, amending a forecast
hardly ever leads to a better result (you got it almost right first time but
missed a detail that would affect your area for a few hours only).

--
Rodney Blackall (retired meteorologist)(BSc, FRMetS)
Buckingham, ENGLAND
Using Acorn SA-RPC, OS 4.02 with ANT INS and Pluto 3.03j

On Aug 5, 9:12*pm, "T" wrote:
"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message

...







"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather,
the progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

--
www.layton.me.uk/meteo.htm

They're getting more and morelike an independent weather forcasting
website who claimed long range accuracy that changed every few weeks to
help maintain that accuracy. Now I wonder who they are? Ah yes UKMO

Ok, I think we've all got the point you're not UKMO's No.1 fan. Your bigotry
is quite irritating

I think UKMO are marvellous, 2 - 3 days out the forecasts are spookily
accurate. With such a variable UK climate, accurate predictions are critical
to our daily lives. *I can choose car/bicycle/motorbike and appropriate
clothing for work with no worries. *I can plan golf, fishing, days out with
excellent confidence of what weather to expect. *I know when to water the
garden, when not to bother, when to dress the lawn before rain, when to wash
the car. When to do outdoor painting, when *not* to light the B-B-Q, etc,
etc.

BTW I've got no connection with UKMO but I went to Exeter once a few years
back. *The weather (as forecast) was lovely.

T- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I think you've got that about spot on T. There are weak areas; 10 days
+, seasonal and severe weather forecasting, especially in convective
situations, but it's that 3-day excellence that allows the UK's
population to plan. It's easy to forget just what a good job the MetO
do at this range. We take it for granted that we'll be able to plan
the coming weekend's activities around the weather - with good
confidence. When you really think about that, it's amazing that it is
possible to see 3 days into the future with that clarity. Would
someone please point me to an organisation that can do the same with
the stock market at 3 days! 8))

On Aug 5, 11:04*pm, Rodney Blackall
wrote:
In article
,
* *Dawlish wrote:

On Aug 5, 7:30 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled
weather, the progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....

Phil

Now now, Phil :-)

Will

As any 'old hand' at weather forecasting will tell you, amending a forecast
hardly ever leads to a better result (you got it almost right first time but
missed a detail that would affect your area for a few hours only).

--
Rodney Blackall (retired meteorologist)(BSc, FRMetS)
Buckingham, ENGLAND
Using Acorn SA-RPC, OS 4.02 with ANT INS and Pluto 3.03j

Don't you just love the "old hands"

Dawlish (Paul Garvey), BSc, M.Ed, NPQH, FrMetS. (unretired)

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Aug 5, 10:42 pm, terry tibbs wrote:
the biggest irony is youre still posting your better than the met.

come on , give us a forecast for the uk based on the pressure berne.



Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 5, 7:30 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather,
the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....
Phil
Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

The biggest irony was that that the models changed on the exact day
that the updated forecast was released. I only have so much sympathy
in this for the MetO, as it was so badly handled as all the evidence
points to seasonal forecasting being, at best, a nascent area of
meteorolgy. To attach any kind of confidence to these forecasts is
just asking for trouble. That's not a snipe over this particular
summer, I've been banging on about the fact that seasonal forecasting
has very low accuracy outcomes for years*. I do feel sorry for the
desk forecasters and those at the Hadley Centre, as this summer's
awful forecasts will be used as "evidence" for not trusting models for
the future, or for glossing over the excellent progress at forecasting
from 3-5 days. Unfortunately for the MetO, the next 10 days, or so,
are looking like BBQ and beach weather 8)) . Grab your sunhats and
get out there!

*The coming Internet winter forecasts from "respected forecasters" are
no more than a bit of fun, no matter who isuues them and no matter how
many telecommunication "signals" they may have spotted!- Hide quoted
text -

- Show quoted text -

Nope; didn't get a word, stalker.


HE SAID QUITE CLEARLY : IF YOUR SO BLEEDIN' GOOD THAN LETS HAVE A FORECAST
FROM YOU. Did you understand that old bean?

On Aug 7, 1:04*am, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Aug 5, 10:42 pm, terry tibbs wrote:





the biggest irony is youre still posting your better than the met.

come on , give us a forecast for the uk based on the pressure berne.

Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 5, 7:30 am, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Phil Layton" wrote in message

...

Having updated the rest of Summer outlook with more unsettled weather,
the
progs this morning look the most settled for weeks....
Phil
Now now, Phil :-)

Will
--

The biggest irony was that that the models changed on the exact day
that the updated forecast was released. I only have so much sympathy
in this for the MetO, as it was so badly handled as all the evidence
points to seasonal forecasting being, at best, a nascent area of
meteorolgy. To attach any kind of confidence to these forecasts is
just asking for trouble. That's not a snipe over this particular
summer, I've been banging on about the fact that seasonal forecasting
has very low accuracy outcomes for years*. I do feel sorry for the
desk forecasters and those at the Hadley Centre, as this summer's
awful forecasts will be used as "evidence" for not trusting models for
the future, or for glossing over the excellent progress at forecasting
from 3-5 days. Unfortunately for the MetO, the next 10 days, or so,
are looking like BBQ and beach weather 8)) . Grab your sunhats and
get out there!

*The coming Internet winter forecasts from "respected forecasters" are
no more than a bit of fun, no matter who isuues them and no matter how
many telecommunication "signals" they may have spotted!- Hide quoted
text -

- Show quoted text -

Nope; didn't get a word, stalker.

HE SAID QUITE CLEARLY : IF YOUR SO BLEEDIN' GOOD THAN LETS HAVE A FORECAST
FROM YOU. *Did you understand that old bean?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Forecast - Lawrence will continue to convince no-one about his daft
ideas until he claims persecution, throws his toys out of the pram and
disappears for several weeks to sulk. Stalkers only get the attention
they deserve, Lawrence