12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png

Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png

On Oct 28, 6:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position.

On Oct 29, 7:39*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 28, 6:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png-Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sorry, posted too early!

I'd add that it also looks as if the UK is in for a spell of windy
weather which could last right the way through next week. The 00zgfs
shows little respite until next Friday. The ECM is similar, but is
promising a much colder plunge and north-easterlies next weekend.
Brrr. "If only we had that chart in January", I can hear a few saying!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

On Oct 29, 7:51*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 29, 7:39*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 28, 6:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt...png-Hidequoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sorry, posted too early!

I'd add that it also looks as if the UK is in for a spell of windy
weather which could last right the way through next week. The 00zgfs
shows little respite until next Friday. The ECM is similar, but is
promising a much colder plunge and north-easterlies next weekend.
Brrr. "If only we had that chart in January", I can hear a few saying!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...products/f...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Anyone care to take a bet that rainfall in NW Cambs is more than 5mm
in next 7 days ? Damn this Indian Summer, had enough of it. I do hope
that the water companies are preparing for a drought next summer.
wouldnt be surprised if they wait until the horse has bolted before
closing the stable door.
Ned (fed up)

On Oct 29, 5:44*pm, ned flanders wrote:
On Oct 29, 7:51*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Oct 29, 7:39*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Oct 28, 6:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt...Hidequotedtext -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sorry, posted too early!

I'd add that it also looks as if the UK is in for a spell of windy
weather which could last right the way through next week. The 00zgfs
shows little respite until next Friday. The ECM is similar, but is
promising a much colder plunge and north-easterlies next weekend.
Brrr. "If only we had that chart in January", I can hear a few saying!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...ducts/f...Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Anyone care to take a bet that rainfall in NW Cambs is more than 5mm
in next 7 days ? Damn this Indian Summer, had enough of it. I do hope
that the water companies are preparing for a drought next summer.
wouldnt be surprised if they wait until the horse has bolted before
closing the stable door.
Ned (fed up)- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Poor you! I think your drought is about to break Ned! I'll bet you a
virtual pint of Atom Splitter that you've recorded 5mm of rain by
0800 on Monday!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Oct 29, 7:39 am, Dawlish wrote:
On Oct 28, 6:26 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely
position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png-Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.- Hide
quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sorry, posted too early!

I'd add that it also looks as if the UK is in for a spell of windy
weather which could last right the way through next week. The 00zgfs
shows little respite until next Friday. The ECM is similar, but is
promising a much colder plunge and north-easterlies next weekend.
Brrr. "If only we had that chart in January", I can hear a few saying!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...test!chart.gif

==============

Oh if only it were March!

Will
--

"Malcolm" wrote in message
...

In article
,
Dawlish writes
On Oct 28, 6:26 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely
position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...



12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.

During today, http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ have downgraded it and pushed it
further north. This morning, Islay (where I live) was set for force 8-9
for the much of the daytime. Now, it's a mere force 7, and even further
north into the Outer Hebrides it isn't given more than force 8. Northern
Ireland hasn't anywhere above force 6.

--
Malcolm

It's a tricky one for sure. We need to wait until it is within time range of
high resolution NWP models.
06Z run tomorrow (friday) should start to see it better handled. Having said
that the wave starts near the Azores a relatively data rich region, however,
models historically have trouble with waves coming from the SW. My option is
that it will end up in the Irish Sea and then slide across northern England
but confidence is only 30%. The best charts to keep an eye on it will be the
UKmet FAX charts as these will represent the best estimate from the human
forecaster team at Exeter.

Will
--

On Oct 29, 6:05*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Oct 29, 7:39 am, Dawlish wrote:



On Oct 28, 6:26 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely
position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rt...png-Hidequoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.- Hide
quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Sorry, posted too early!

I'd add that it also looks as if the UK is in for a spell of windy
weather which could last right the way through next week. The 00zgfs
shows little respite until next Friday. The ECM is similar, but is
promising a much colder plunge and north-easterlies next weekend.
Brrr. "If only we had that chart in January", I can hear a few saying!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...log/products/f...

==============

Oh if only it were March!

Will
--

That's the problem with November, it's very very difficult to get (on
the one hand) warm sunny weather and (on the other) snow. It's
probably the only month of the year when neither of those will happen
in central southern England. Something of a month to just "get
through" it has to be said... Contrast to March and April when both
happen, usually within a couple of days of each other!

Nick

On 29 Oct, 18:10, Malcolm wrote:
In article
,
Dawlish writes





On Oct 28, 6:26*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
Great minds think alike. Simultaneously I started a similar thread!
Yes it could be further north OTOH it could slow even more and deepen
further south. Ensembles will be key to arriving at a most likely position.

Will
--

"Dawlish" wrote in message

....

12z gfs has Sunday's depression on a very interesting track. I feel
that the low centre wil end up further North than currently forecast,
but there's some gales and heavy rain likely to be wrapped around that
low and it could prove to be a damaging storm. Lots of leaves still
left on trees and lots of blocked drains too.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn962.png

Further afield, it looks like Autumn will hit the Med next week. Perf
Anyone who has escaped for half-term, to the western Med, at least,
has had some super October weather, but anyone who has tried to save
some money and tried to escape the kids in the resorts, or taken the
kids out of school to benefit from cheaper deals, might wish they
chosen this week instead!!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1802.png-Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not quite the same track this morning and the 00z gfs takes the
depression across Northern Ireland and then across Scotland, but still
with some strong winds and heavy rain,. Definitely one to watch ATM.

During today,http://www.xcweather.co.uk/have downgraded it and pushed
it further north. This morning, Islay (where I live) was set for force
8-9 for the much of the daytime. Now, it's a mere force 7, and even
further north into the Outer Hebrides it isn't given more than force 8.
Northern Ireland hasn't anywhere above force 6.

--
Malcolm- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

XCWeather is still forecasting a Force 8 for Penzance 03:00 Sunday,
Force 9 for Scilly, though it looks like being short lived, just
before the front goes through.( www.xcweather.co.uk/ ) Also it looks
like being SSW rather than SSE, which is the 'bad' direction here. The
tides aren't big, so there probably won't be any problems. On 20th Oct
there was some flooding due to a large Spring tide coinciding with
strongest onshore wind. This was widely mis-reported as being due to
heavy rain (The flooding that is not the wind). It led to delays on
the trains into Pz, and minor damage to the sea defences at Long Rock,
just east of Pz. Also it led to the pier car park at Mousehole being
shut for safety reasons for the 1st time since Spring. An
exceptionally late date for this, a reflaction of the exceptionally
quiet Autumn.

Surf was small today,

Graham
Penzance

Significant 21stC storms:- www.turnstone-cottage.co.uk/wpage9.html