Question for Will

How similar is the setup to Carlisle floods of 2005 ?

There was a good pdf file all about but I cant find it on the internet
anywhere


Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria

PS rain has just started !

"Paul Crabtree" wrote in message
...
Question for Will

How similar is the setup to Carlisle floods of 2005 ?

There was a good pdf file all about but I cant find it on the internet
anywhere


Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria

PS rain has just started !

IMHO strong there's a strong correlation
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...jan2005floods/

Jon.

"Paul Crabtree" wrote in message
...
Question for Will

How similar is the setup to Carlisle floods of 2005 ?

There was a good pdf file all about but I cant find it on the internet
anywhere


Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria

PS rain has just started !

IMHO there's a strong correlation
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...jan2005floods/

Jon.

On Wed, 18 Nov 2009 12:33:50 -0800 (PST), Dawlish wrote:

It'll be interesting to see, post-forecast, whether it would have been
worthwhile "taking action" by the good people of Cumbria. It will be a
very good call, if that severe a warning proves correct, a good 12
hours in advance. There's certainly a lot of rain in the offing!

It's starting to get windy here, good F8 odd gusts 50mph. Temp
started to rise about the same time as thw wind did at 1630 now just
under 10C from just over 5C. The rain has just started but looking at
the radar looks to be a fairly small blob moving at normal sort of
speeds so I don't expect more than a few hours of rain.

--
Cheers
Dave.

On Nov 18, 8:50*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Paul Crabtree" wrote in message

...

Question for Will

How similar is the setup to Carlisle floods of 2005 ?

There was a good pdf file all about but I cant find it on the internet
anywhere

Paul C
Brampton, Cumbria

PS rain has just started !

IMHO there's a strong correlationhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/jan2005floods/

Jon.

so much for the 200 year return frequency ! We're doomed I tell ye,
doomed.

On Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:22:30 +0000, Col wrote:

I guess I've gorgotten about the ones that have been mentioned because
they were nowhere near my area. I wonder if there were anyfor the
London/South East snow of early Feb this year?
snip

Yes. I sent an email to a friend in the SE on the afternoon of 1 Feb,
including the words:

"Especially note the red warning for parts of SE England for tomorrow."

--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.

"Paul Crabtree" wrote in message
...
Question for Will

How similar is the setup to Carlisle floods of 2005 ?

There was a good pdf file all about but I cant find it on the internet
anywhere


Very similar but I need to look at the upper air structure in more detail.
There was a little bit of instability in the 2005 case and the cold front
was a little closer in.

Will
--

On Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:20:01 -0000, Will Hand wrote:

Very similar but I need to look at the upper air structure in more
detail. There was a little bit of instability in the 2005 case and the
cold front was a little closer in.

Wasn't there a sting jet involved as well? I was driving home that
night and got stopped by a fallen tree just short of the High Force
Hotel. Tried to cut across the tops to Weardale but the only map I
had was a large scale "book of the road" and I turned too early and
ended up on a gated lane. Opening gates on your own in a strong gale
and lashing rain is not fun. Got defeated in the end by one that
needed to open into the wind, could just about manage that but there
was nothing strong/heavy enough to keep it open against the wind. Got
home eventually but it was a vicious night.

Tonight the wind has dropped only F7 now. The rain has eased if not
stopped (I can't hear it on the windows). Temp steady just under 10C.

Radar shows just a small blob of rain left. However looking at the
satellite image there is a lot of cloud to the SW of Ireland that
looks to heading this way, if it is I'd expect it to be here in
around 8 hours.

If anyone looks at my website the sudden change of wind direction at
2045 is due to the support arm of the anemomter and wind vane taking
the direction of least resistance and aligning itself downwind. Where
can you get U bolts with a 1 1/2" pitch and 1/4" threads?

--
Cheers
Dave.

On Nov 18, 11:10*pm, "Dave Liquorice"
wrote:
On Wed, 18 Nov 2009 22:20:01 -0000, Will Hand wrote:
Very similar but I need to look at the upper air structure in more
detail. There was a little bit of instability in the 2005 case and the
cold front was a little closer in.

Wasn't there a sting jet involved as well? I was driving home that
night and got stopped by a fallen tree just short of the High Force
Hotel. Tried to cut across the tops to Weardale but the only map I
had was a large scale "book of the road" and I turned too early and
ended up on a gated lane. Opening gates on your own in a strong gale
and lashing rain is not fun. Got defeated in the end by one that
needed to open into the wind, could just about manage that but there
was nothing strong/heavy enough to keep it open against the wind. Got
home eventually but it was a vicious night.

Tonight the wind has dropped only F7 now. The rain has eased if not
stopped (I can't hear it on the windows). Temp steady just under 10C.

Radar shows just a small blob of rain left. However looking at the
satellite image there is a lot of cloud to the SW of Ireland that
looks to heading this way, if it is I'd expect it to be here in
around 8 hours.

If anyone looks at my website the sudden change of wind direction at
2045 is due to the support arm of the anemomter and wind vane taking
the direction of least resistance and aligning itself downwind. Where
can you get U bolts with a 1 1/2" pitch and 1/4" threads?

--
Cheers
Dave.

Amazing rainfall totals. Honiter 211mm in 12-15 hours with, perhaps,
another 100mm to come (BBC news tonight). Many instances of flooding,
a host of flood warnings, some severe and a pretty dreadful event
unfolding. An excellent red warning forecast. Exactly what the
warnings site should be about. An unequivocal warning of properly
severe weather.

Here's an update from the EA:

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/news/113474.aspx

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Paul Crabtree" wrote in message
...
Question for Will

How similar is the setup to Carlisle floods of 2005 ?

There was a good pdf file all about but I cant find it on the internet
anywhere


Very similar but I need to look at the upper air structure in more detail.
There was a little bit of instability in the 2005 case and the cold front
was a little closer in.


Had a look today and the similarities are striking. There was some upper
level instability today and also a core of high low-level winds 60-70 knots
at around 2000-2500 metres asl. As the cold front has edged closer line
convection elements are developing betraying the rearward sloping ascent and
a confluent upper trough which is what is needed for a really extreme
orographic event.

Will
--