On Nov 20, 10:32*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 20, 9:41 pm, Doorlish wrote:





there are so many % signs and odds in that drivel last post there it
should have a gamblers aware notice on it

your not a forecaster, your just that sad git down ladbrokes

Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 20, 8:02 pm, David wrote:
On Nov 20, 7:44 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 20, 7:24 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Doorlish" wrote in
...
Lots of pressure in Berne
Bouts of Cherry picking charts to suit my needs.
Spells of Im better than the met office all winter
8 Octas of Calling it mild, when blindingly obvious.
Periods of GFS charts to suit my betting needs.
Intervals of 10 days forecasts that are all wrong, and I will gloat
I was
right all along.
Enjoy
All well and good but you still haven't explained why why Kerry
Kantona was
frozen out of the Iceland adverts and how that will effect AGW?
25,231 and
counting
Since my stalker kindly opened a thread for me; here's my winter
forecast.
Winter 2009-10 will be warmer than the 1971-2000 average. Reason;
we're in a global warming trend and the UK isn't immune. Track record;
75%+ accuracy since the mid 1980s. Find a better winter forecast track
record anywhere and I'll treat anyone that leads us to it to a night
on decent beer in The Smugglers in Dawlish and feed you as well. *))
Verifiable?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Have a look at the stats, David. Start in 1988. That gives a
reasonable 21-year dataset. 75%+ accuracy (actually 17/21 years were
warmer than their respective 30-year average = 81%) with saying
"warmer than average" every year since then. I've never found anything
better than this for predicting anything about the UK (OK, Central
England) winter. You can almost go back to 1983, but the accuracy
drops to slightly below 75%, but stays above 70% (19/26 winters warmer
than average = 73%). Amazing stats really, aren't they?

I'm not at all sure Joe *******i understands what he's up against with
that prediction of his. 3 months all below the 1971-2000 average in a
UKGW winter (OK, my phrase, but it does acknowledge the UK following
the global trend) is very unlikely to happen - unless the GW trend has
ended. He'd have to be very, very, lucky to nail that prediction.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...ics/uktemp.txt

The 21-year hindsight odds would be about 1/4 a warmer than average
winter, but I'm the bookie, so I'd only offer 1/3. Thus; 3/1 a colder
than average winter this year. Any individual month = 3/1 against
having a temp below the 30-year monthly average (should be 4/1
against, but again, I'm the bookie!). The odds for getting 3
consecutive months below average should equal 3x3x3/1 =27/1 (really it
should be 4x4x4/1 = 64/1). However there is an element of persistence
in that (if a month is colder than average, the next month is more
likely to be as the cold may well persist into the next month and
reduce the monthly mean, so 5/2 the second consecutive colder month
would be my odds. If two months are below average, we may well have an
unusual blocking situation and the persistence factor would increase
the chances of the third month being below average, IMO, so the odds
for a 3rd consecutive month would fall to 6/4.

Thus the odds I'd offer on 3 months being colder than average would be
3/1 x 5/2 x 6/4 = 3 x 2.5 x 1.5 = 11/1. The *actual* hindsight odds,
from the Hadley stats would be 4/1 x 3/1 x 2/1 = 24/1

So; 24/1 against are the odds that I think Joe Bastadi is facing in
saying that all three months of this winter would be below average.
Good luck to him. As the bookie, I'd offer 11/1 against his forecast
being spot on - if you'd like to place a bet!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your? Your grammar and the fact that you live within sight of Heathrow
gives you away, my stalker.

Shall I out you? Or should I wait? I'm flattered, honestly. No-one
else that I know of on the weather internet/blogosphere has a
dedicated stalker who (almost) always posts to discuss me and reads
everything I post, so I might wait a while. You really do me quite a
favour! Outing you will not help this winter's forecast from you
though, will it?......Borerlish, terry tibbs, NW Zephyr et al.
and.............it's tempting. Maybe I'll save it for a Christmas
present to you.

Paul, grow up you twit. Don't you realise what a pompous idiot you have
become?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*)) Just as a response to the gathering abuse.............Life below
the intellectual stairs is tough Lawrence, isn't it?

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Nov 20, 10:32 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 20, 9:41 pm, Doorlish wrote:





there are so many % signs and odds in that drivel last post there it
should have a gamblers aware notice on it

your not a forecaster, your just that sad git down ladbrokes

Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 20, 8:02 pm, David wrote:
On Nov 20, 7:44 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 20, 7:24 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Doorlish" wrote in
...
Lots of pressure in Berne
Bouts of Cherry picking charts to suit my needs.
Spells of Im better than the met office all winter
8 Octas of Calling it mild, when blindingly obvious.
Periods of GFS charts to suit my betting needs.
Intervals of 10 days forecasts that are all wrong, and I will
gloat
I was
right all along.
Enjoy
All well and good but you still haven't explained why why Kerry
Kantona was
frozen out of the Iceland adverts and how that will effect AGW?
25,231 and
counting
Since my stalker kindly opened a thread for me; here's my winter
forecast.
Winter 2009-10 will be warmer than the 1971-2000 average. Reason;
we're in a global warming trend and the UK isn't immune. Track
record;
75%+ accuracy since the mid 1980s. Find a better winter forecast
track
record anywhere and I'll treat anyone that leads us to it to a night
on decent beer in The Smugglers in Dawlish and feed you as well.
*))
Verifiable?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Have a look at the stats, David. Start in 1988. That gives a
reasonable 21-year dataset. 75%+ accuracy (actually 17/21 years were
warmer than their respective 30-year average = 81%) with saying
"warmer than average" every year since then. I've never found anything
better than this for predicting anything about the UK (OK, Central
England) winter. You can almost go back to 1983, but the accuracy
drops to slightly below 75%, but stays above 70% (19/26 winters warmer
than average = 73%). Amazing stats really, aren't they?

I'm not at all sure Joe *******i understands what he's up against with
that prediction of his. 3 months all below the 1971-2000 average in a
UKGW winter (OK, my phrase, but it does acknowledge the UK following
the global trend) is very unlikely to happen - unless the GW trend has
ended. He'd have to be very, very, lucky to nail that prediction.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...ics/uktemp.txt

The 21-year hindsight odds would be about 1/4 a warmer than average
winter, but I'm the bookie, so I'd only offer 1/3. Thus; 3/1 a colder
than average winter this year. Any individual month = 3/1 against
having a temp below the 30-year monthly average (should be 4/1
against, but again, I'm the bookie!). The odds for getting 3
consecutive months below average should equal 3x3x3/1 =27/1 (really it
should be 4x4x4/1 = 64/1). However there is an element of persistence
in that (if a month is colder than average, the next month is more
likely to be as the cold may well persist into the next month and
reduce the monthly mean, so 5/2 the second consecutive colder month
would be my odds. If two months are below average, we may well have an
unusual blocking situation and the persistence factor would increase
the chances of the third month being below average, IMO, so the odds
for a 3rd consecutive month would fall to 6/4.

Thus the odds I'd offer on 3 months being colder than average would be
3/1 x 5/2 x 6/4 = 3 x 2.5 x 1.5 = 11/1. The *actual* hindsight odds,
from the Hadley stats would be 4/1 x 3/1 x 2/1 = 24/1

So; 24/1 against are the odds that I think Joe Bastadi is facing in
saying that all three months of this winter would be below average.
Good luck to him. As the bookie, I'd offer 11/1 against his forecast
being spot on - if you'd like to place a bet!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your? Your grammar and the fact that you live within sight of Heathrow
gives you away, my stalker.

Shall I out you? Or should I wait? I'm flattered, honestly. No-one
else that I know of on the weather internet/blogosphere has a
dedicated stalker who (almost) always posts to discuss me and reads
everything I post, so I might wait a while. You really do me quite a
favour! Outing you will not help this winter's forecast from you
though, will it?......Borerlish, terry tibbs, NW Zephyr et al.
and.............it's tempting. Maybe I'll save it for a Christmas
present to you.

Paul, grow up you twit. Don't you realise what a pompous idiot you have
become?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*)) Just as a response to the gathering abuse.............Life below
the intellectual stairs is tough Lawrence, isn't it?


Paul you're doing it again, pomposity is your forte it would seem. Now calm
down and try to be nice again.

On Nov 20, 10:41*pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 20, 10:32 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:





"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Nov 20, 9:41 pm, Doorlish wrote:

there are so many % signs and odds in that drivel last post there it
should have a gamblers aware notice on it

your not a forecaster, your just that sad git down ladbrokes

Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 20, 8:02 pm, David wrote:
On Nov 20, 7:44 pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 20, 7:24 pm, "Lawrence Jenkins" wrote:
"Doorlish" wrote in
...
Lots of pressure in Berne
Bouts of Cherry picking charts to suit my needs.
Spells of Im better than the met office all winter
8 Octas of Calling it mild, when blindingly obvious.
Periods of GFS charts to suit my betting needs.
Intervals of 10 days forecasts that are all wrong, and I will
gloat
I was
right all along.
Enjoy
All well and good but you still haven't explained why why Kerry
Kantona was
frozen out of the Iceland adverts and how that will effect AGW?
25,231 and
counting
Since my stalker kindly opened a thread for me; here's my winter
forecast.
Winter 2009-10 will be warmer than the 1971-2000 average. Reason;
we're in a global warming trend and the UK isn't immune. Track
record;
75%+ accuracy since the mid 1980s. Find a better winter forecast
track
record anywhere and I'll treat anyone that leads us to it to a night
on decent beer in The Smugglers in Dawlish and feed you as well.
*))
Verifiable?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Have a look at the stats, David. Start in 1988. That gives a
reasonable 21-year dataset. 75%+ accuracy (actually 17/21 years were
warmer than their respective 30-year average = 81%) with saying
"warmer than average" every year since then. I've never found anything
better than this for predicting anything about the UK (OK, Central
England) winter. You can almost go back to 1983, but the accuracy
drops to slightly below 75%, but stays above 70% (19/26 winters warmer
than average = 73%). Amazing stats really, aren't they?

I'm not at all sure Joe *******i understands what he's up against with
that prediction of his. 3 months all below the 1971-2000 average in a
UKGW winter (OK, my phrase, but it does acknowledge the UK following
the global trend) is very unlikely to happen - unless the GW trend has
ended. He'd have to be very, very, lucky to nail that prediction.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/...ics/uktemp.txt

The 21-year hindsight odds would be about 1/4 a warmer than average
winter, but I'm the bookie, so I'd only offer 1/3. Thus; 3/1 a colder
than average winter this year. Any individual month = 3/1 against
having a temp below the 30-year monthly average (should be 4/1
against, but again, I'm the bookie!). The odds for getting 3
consecutive months below average should equal 3x3x3/1 =27/1 (really it
should be 4x4x4/1 = 64/1). However there is an element of persistence
in that (if a month is colder than average, the next month is more
likely to be as the cold may well persist into the next month and
reduce the monthly mean, so 5/2 the second consecutive colder month
would be my odds. If two months are below average, we may well have an
unusual blocking situation and the persistence factor would increase
the chances of the third month being below average, IMO, so the odds
for a 3rd consecutive month would fall to 6/4.

Thus the odds I'd offer on 3 months being colder than average would be
3/1 x 5/2 x 6/4 = 3 x 2.5 x 1.5 = 11/1. The *actual* hindsight odds,
from the Hadley stats would be 4/1 x 3/1 x 2/1 = 24/1

So; 24/1 against are the odds that I think Joe Bastadi is facing in
saying that all three months of this winter would be below average.
Good luck to him. As the bookie, I'd offer 11/1 against his forecast
being spot on - if you'd like to place a bet!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Your? Your grammar and the fact that you live within sight of Heathrow
gives you away, my stalker.

Shall I out you? Or should I wait? I'm flattered, honestly. No-one
else that I know of on the weather internet/blogosphere has a
dedicated stalker who (almost) always posts to discuss me and reads
everything I post, so I might wait a while. You really do me quite a
favour! Outing you will not help this winter's forecast from you
though, will it?......Borerlish, terry tibbs, NW Zephyr et al.
and.............it's tempting. Maybe I'll save it for a Christmas
present to you.

Paul, grow up you twit. Don't you realise what a pompous idiot you have
become?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*)) *Just as a response to the gathering abuse.............Life below
the intellectual stairs is tough Lawrence, isn't it?

Paul you're doing it again, pomposity *is your forte it would seem. Now calm
down and try to be nice again.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

*))

go for it idiot

terry in bracknell

PS pressure in berne 1025mb

Dawlish wrote:

Shall I out you? Or should I wait? I'm flattered, honestly. No-one
else that I know of on the weather internet/blogosphere has a
dedicated stalker who (almost) always posts to discuss me and reads
everything I post, so I might wait a while. You really do me quite a
favour! Outing you will not help this winter's forecast from you
though, will it?......Borerlish, terry tibbs, NW Zephyr et al.
and.............it's tempting. Maybe I'll save it for a Christmas
present to you.