"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 5, 11:44 pm, "Graham" wrote:
Difficult to see what's going to be the outcome, but, and this is a big
but, it may all happen a little later and be in time for Christmas.

Then again Keith it may not happen at all

Graham

It's certainly keeping the weather internet on tenterhooks!

I think Darren's (Retron's) analysis on TWO has been very interesting
over the last 24 hours and I'd recommend a look if you haven't been
reading it. I've found his obeservations about the strength of the jet
and possible repercussions for this UK cold. Combine that with Will's
analysis on here, and that's about the best you'll get around the
weather sites. A lot of the rest is badly clouded by a *wish* for cold
and a thus a poor interpretation of the changing models.

ECM 00z shows the elusive easterly well before T240, but the gfs and
GEM still show the developing high over Spain extending towards a
developing high over Scandinavia and positioning the eventual
combination high over us. That doesn't mean we won't turn colder, with
clearer skies and frost for many and a respite from the rain really
does look on the cards now, by next weekend. Developments following
that do appear to hang on the strength of the push of warm air into
the Arctic on the western limb of the high. If a strong push happens,
the jet will have weakened and that may well allow the corresponding
movement of colder air, on the eastern limb of the high to extend
further west in the classic "omega block" mentioned by Will
yesterday.

If the jet doesn't weaken, the whole thing may sink south, giving a
cold spell to Greece and Turkey (have you ever read "snow" by Orhan
Pamuk? That's the kind of blizzard that cuts an area off and would
have us all tobogganing!) but allowing south-westerlies back over us -
a la edge of reality on the gfs.

Pattern change, or short-lived pattern interruption? I still favour
the second of those options, but there's no way I'd forecast it at the
moment! Not enough consistency, or agreement. The models really don't
handle possible easterlies well!

Rather exciting, isn't it, with Christmas in the offing!
-------------------------
Nine times out of ten the cold weather has slipped South East to Greece in
these set-ups in recent years. No reason at the moment to think the same
won't happen this year but fingers crossed all the same.
Dave

shame you cant post on there LOL

Dawlish wrote:
ternet on tenterhooks!

I think Darren's (Retron's) analysis on TWO has been very interesting
over the last 24 hours and I'd recommend a look if you haven't been
reading it. I've found his obeservations about the strength of the jet
and possible repercussions for this UK cold. Combine that with Will's
analysis on here, and that's about the best you'll get around the
weather sites. A lot of the rest is badly clouded by a *wish* for cold
and a thus a poor interpretation of the changing models.

On Dec 6, 11:14*am, Pete L wrote:
On 6 Dec, 10:59, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 5, 11:44*pm, "Graham" wrote:

Difficult to see what's going to be the outcome, but, and this is a big
but, it may all happen a little later and be in time for Christmas.

Then again Keith it may not happen at all

Graham

It's certainly keeping the weather internet on tenterhooks!

I think Darren's (Retron's) analysis on TWO has been very interesting
over the last 24 hours and I'd recommend a look if you haven't been
reading it. I've found his obeservations about the strength of the jet
and possible repercussions for this UK cold. Combine that with Will's
analysis on here, and that's about the best you'll get around the
weather sites. A lot of the rest is badly clouded by a *wish* for cold
and a thus a poor interpretation of the changing models.

ECM 00z shows the elusive easterly well before T240, but the gfs and
GEM still show the developing high over Spain extending towards a
developing high over Scandinavia and positioning the eventual
combination high over us. That doesn't mean we won't turn colder, with
clearer skies and frost for many and a respite from the rain really
does look on the cards now, by next weekend. Developments following
that do appear to hang on the strength of the push of warm air into
the Arctic on the western limb of the high. If a strong push happens,
the jet will have weakened and that may well allow the corresponding
movement of colder air, on the eastern limb of the high to extend
further west in the classic "omega block" mentioned by Will
yesterday.

If the jet doesn't weaken, the whole thing may sink south, giving a
cold spell to Greece and Turkey (have you ever read "snow" by Orhan
Pamuk? That's the kind of blizzard that cuts an area off and would
have us all tobogganing!) but allowing south-westerlies back over us -
a la edge of reality on the gfs.

Pattern change, or short-lived pattern interruption? I still favour
the second of those options, but there's no way I'd forecast it at the
moment! Not enough consistency, or agreement. The models really don't
handle possible easterlies well!

Rather exciting, isn't it, with Christmas in the offing!

Well, I've gone for the White Christmas bet! Got 9-1 for Waddington.
As far back as I can remember we often get a cold frosty/foggy period
during the first week to ten days of December then towards the Xmas
period the SW'lies return with any cold weather coming by the first
week of Jan. Looks different this year and I'm (fairly) hopeful with
this scenario and each model run looks favourable. Here's hoping!!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Not bad odds with the possibility of cold!

snip........ Keith will notice it first on Saturday
I bet he doesn't - I will be working at the golf course just North of him
starting 8 a.m Saturday morning !
Dave

Dave Cornwell wrote:
snip........ Keith will notice it first on Saturday
I bet he doesn't - I will be working at the golf course just North of him
starting 8 a.m Saturday morning !
Dave



What at Rochford Dave? My brother-in-law plays there.

--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith(Southend) wrote:
Dave Cornwell wrote:
snip........ Keith will notice it first on Saturday
I bet he doesn't - I will be working at the golf course just North of
him starting 8 a.m Saturday morning !
Dave


What at Rochford Dave? My brother-in-law plays there.


Joe *******i's column:-
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather
He's saying the same things.
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/wetter/model/temp4.png
is also worth keeping an eye on.

Jon.

On Dec 6, 5:26*pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z gfs is so markedly different from the 06z that it has to be a
crazy outlier......

It was. *)) After sticking with the bunch to 11th Dec, it just goes
off on one!!

http://209.197.11.142/c9s4a5k3/cds/e...19f49c48072165

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 6, 5:26 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z gfs is so markedly different from the 06z that it has to be a
crazy outlier......

It was. *)) After sticking with the bunch to 11th Dec, it just goes
off on one!!

http://209.197.11.142/c9s4a5k3/cds/e...19f49c48072165

-----------

But it is not an outlier for Copenhagen and Helsinki, in fact the OP is
*warmer* than the ensembles for those two places at times in the forecast.
The ensemble mean has little change, and this tells me that there may be
considerable doubt how far west the *very cold* air gets but it is certainly
going to get cold with very cold air not far away to the east. Is this a
battleground scenario brewing again? Interesting.

Will
--

On Dec 6, 6:06*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Dec 6, 5:26 pm, Dawlish wrote:

The 12z gfs is so markedly different from the 06z that it has to be a
crazy outlier......

It was. *)) *After sticking with the bunch to 11th Dec, it just goes
off on one!!

http://209.197.11.142/c9s4a5k3/cds/e...06/12/t850Lond...

-----------

But it is not an outlier for Copenhagen and Helsinki, in fact the OP is
*warmer* than the ensembles for those two places at times in the forecast..
The ensemble mean has little change, and this tells me that there may be
considerable doubt how far west the *very cold* air gets but it is certainly
going to get cold with very cold air not far away to the east. Is this a
battleground scenario brewing again? Interesting.

Will
--

Now that has to be the best single ECM chart for English snow that
I've seen in years of model watching! 9 days away........ I wonder!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif