"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

==========================

Holy moley!

It has to have gone off on one itself Paul? JMA at T+192 starting to
indicate retrogression too.
The common denominator is that no runs are indicating mild, whatever
happens it is going to get cold later this week and into the next. Another
common denominator is the bitterly cold sub 492 DAM pushing south into
Russia, that is what used to happen many years ago and has not been common
in 21st Century winters so far.

Will
--

12Z ensemble data shows fairly good support for EC's operational run in
terms of 850hpa temperatures, which slowly decline from day 5. However, the
change in the upper pattern, compared to the 00Z run, doesn't look
particularly well supported by the ENS data. In particular this run develops
an upper vortex across southern Scandinavia at day 8 which then moves into
France by the end of the period, strengthening the easterly flow at the
surface across the UK as a consequence compared to the earlier Op run.
Certainly a significant change of type by the end of the week but I suspect
it might be a bit further out before things get more interesting over this
way.

Jon.

Keith(Southend) wrote:

Looking at both GFS and ECMWF I find hard to believe as they remind me
of the charts from 1963.

And one of the causes of that winter was said to have been a cold SST pool
near 40N 40W. Another cold pool in the NE Pacific was also said to have
reinforced the pressure anomaly of a high over Iceland and low pressure near
the Azores. My foggy recollection is that the Atlantic cold pool was much
stronger in 62-3 than what we have now.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

In article ,
Will Hand writes:

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...

Looking at both GFS and ECMWF I find hard to believe as they remind
me of the charts from 1963.

If, and that's a big IF, this does come off and last into the new
year as Joe *******i is indicating I fear things could get serious
very quickly in the UK. There is a whole generation who think a frost
and a dusting of snow is Armageddon. Not to mention the gas and
electricity supplies which I don't believe our infrastructure can
code.


Indeed Keith. How would the country cope? We may find out soon enough.

Judging by what happened last February, the schools would probably be
closed for weeks on end.
--
John Hall "[It was] so steep that at intervals the street broke into steps,
like a person breaking into giggles or hiccups, and then resumed
its sober climb, until it had another fit of steps."
Ursula K Le Guin "The Beginning Place"

On 6 Dec, 21:21, John Hall wrote:

Judging by what happened last February, the schools would probably be
closed for weeks on end.

London etc. may grind to a halt but I've never seen so many strangers
laughing and chatting to each other than last Feb when it snowed. A
wonderful day.

Richard

On Dec 6, 8:58*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

Remember boys; it's only a chart drawn from numbers in cyberspace. I
did say that I wanted 2 ECM runs showing that kind of scenario before
I begin to think this may actually happen in a form that actually
produces UK lowland snow!
========================

Of course Paul, but consider the evidence so far. We have Joe B. giving a
forecast last month uncannily like those charts we see today.

errr, that's not "evidence" of anything Will! Just an ego that will
grow when he happens to get a UK forecast correct. It is,
unfortunately, bound to happen and his acolytes will conveniently
forget all the previous poor forecasts!

We have theensembles from 6 days ago being quite confident about a E/NE'ern block and
indicating extremely cold air coming south into Russia.

Ah, but they missed the development of the high over Spain which
merges and contributes to this development.

We have UKMO and JMA
pretty consistent in developing easterlies recently. GFS ensembles have been
consistently confident on bringing very cold air into Scandinavia.

Agreed.

The cold is on the way and evidence is gathering for retrogression.

Probably now, not even possibly!

What is not clear in my mind is how any snow will form? What *could* happen is that we
basically end up with high pressure sitting over or just to NW of Britain
with only the SE seeing snow showers off the North Sea.

Again, agreed, but still possibly, and as you say *could* happen.

As you say the coming runs should firm up a bit more on details. The
dynamics are pointing
quite confidently to a cold spell I'd say now,

Agreed.

but how cold? How long and
how severe? They are the questions.

Dfinitely and they are not sorted, by any means.

In the past 10 years or so it has been my work to look at severe weather in
whatever form; be it rain, thunder, tornado, snow, wind etc. and over the
years I have developed a kind of 'sense' for when something may happen -
this is one of those rare occasions when we *could* be facing a severe
widespread snow event.

I'm afraid that "senses" and gut feelings don't count Will. You know
my views: outcome percentage forecast accuracy counts and nothing
else. *.)) It *could* be one of those rare occasions though, I agree!!
There's the excitement!!

Will
--- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 6, 8:58 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

Remember boys; it's only a chart drawn from numbers in cyberspace. I
did say that I wanted 2 ECM runs showing that kind of scenario before
I begin to think this may actually happen in a form that actually
produces UK lowland snow!
========================

Of course Paul, but consider the evidence so far. We have Joe B. giving a
forecast last month uncannily like those charts we see today.

errr, that's not "evidence" of anything Will! Just an ego that will
grow when he happens to get a UK forecast correct. It is,
unfortunately, bound to happen and his acolytes will conveniently
forget all the previous poor forecasts!
----------------------------------------------

And boy - with an EGO as big as yours, you'd be an expert on such things.

--
Ned

On Dec 6, 10:23*pm, "Ned" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Dec 6, 8:58 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
Remember boys; it's only a chart drawn from numbers in cyberspace. I
did say that I wanted 2 ECM runs showing that kind of scenario before
I begin to think this may actually happen in a form that actually
produces UK lowland snow!
========================

Of course Paul, but consider the evidence so far. We have Joe B. giving a
forecast last month uncannily like those charts we see today.

errr, that's not "evidence" of anything Will! Just an ego that will
grow when he happens to get a UK forecast correct. It is,
unfortunately, bound to happen and his acolytes will conveniently
forget all the previous poor forecasts!
----------------------------------------------

And boy - with an EGO as big as yours, you'd be an expert on such things.

--
Ned

You have given no comment on any of the models, or the meteorology.
That's because you don't understand enough to comment. Your profile
speaks volumes. That's what stalkers are about and it is the only
thing you are good for. I'm in no mood to tolerate idiots like you
tonight.

Back to the 18z. No wonder it's a downgrade on the cold and snow after
the outrageous outlier of the 12z! Colder and frosty nights. Lets see
what the 00z ECM shows. That'll be more cogent.

Will, I take back all I said about the lack of a battleground on the
11th after the T+120 FAX! - but look where that high comes from. Where
will the charts develop from there?

My own view would be similar to what is being shown on the 18z gfs.
However, if that high wanders north; snow for eastern counties and a
chance of a white Christmas. If that high slips south; a letting of
blood amongst the Internet faithful; if that high hols position; and
easy truth and some fine, dry and frosty conditions and still a chance
of something snowy brewing afterwards. That's my most believable
outcome - but "armageddon" still beckons!

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Dec 6, 10:23 pm, "Ned" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...
On Dec 6, 8:58 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message
Remember boys; it's only a chart drawn from numbers in cyberspace. I
did say that I wanted 2 ECM runs showing that kind of scenario before
I begin to think this may actually happen in a form that actually
produces UK lowland snow!
========================

Of course Paul, but consider the evidence so far. We have Joe B. giving
a
forecast last month uncannily like those charts we see today.

errr, that's not "evidence" of anything Will! Just an ego that will
grow when he happens to get a UK forecast correct. It is,
unfortunately, bound to happen and his acolytes will conveniently
forget all the previous poor forecasts!
----------------------------------------------

And boy - with an EGO as big as yours, you'd be an expert on such things.

--
Ned

You have given no comment on any of the models, or the meteorology.
That's because you don't understand enough to comment. Your profile
speaks volumes. That's what stalkers are about and it is the only
thing you are good for. I'm in no mood to tolerate idiots like you
tonight.
===============================================
You don't know me or my abilty and all we know about you is what Will wrote
back in March. Remember his words?

quote
Really?
What was that then, come on you're an objective person - Paul Garvey who
works for Torbay Council, you are quick to make all these allegations but
offer no proof whatsoever, just talk and more talk, just like a troll.
endquote

Some of us in the group still think the same way.

--
Ned

Dawlish wrote:


Not bad odds with the possibility of cold!

Now would be a good time to bet on a white Christmas
before the bookies slash their odds when the media
starts picking up on this.

Time to start spreading some rumours around work.
If it doesn't come off in a weeks' time everybody will
have forgotten about it anyway
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

On 7 Dec, 06:45, "Col" wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

Not bad odds with the possibility of cold!

Now would be a good time to bet on a white Christmas
before the bookies slash their odds when the media
starts picking up on this.

Time to start spreading some rumours around work.
If it doesn't come off in a weeks' time everybody will
have forgotten about it anyway
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

My heart sank when I opened this up :-(
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.html

Keith (Southend)