On Fri, 11 Dec 2009, jcw wrote
"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...

"Alan White" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:15:21 -0800 (PST), Richard Dixon
wrote:

Over and out.

And there was me thinking it was the season of peace and goodwill ;-)


There are limits, Alan ;-)

Actually, I'm on the verge of launching the Official Dixon Christmas
Comparison.. but without Richard's sponsorship Christmas will have to
cancelled.

Jon.

I hope Richard is just plain annoyed for now and that's all. No one person
is worth leaving this newsgroup over; there's more banter and knowledge here
thankfully.


Ditto from another Blackheath resident and cloudwatcher. I just ignore
the bores.


--
Kate B

PS 'elvira' is spamtrapped - please reply to 'elviraspam' at cockaigne dot org dot uk if you
want to reply personally

On Dec 11, 12:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:

I feel the same about events in the stratosphere affecting surface
conditions, Will, as I've said. There are links and I'm convinced that
these affect surface conditions. My original comment was not a
criticism, but was a questioning of the "often" that you put in your
post. Others have used SSWs in silly ways to justify cold forecasts in
the past, hence my very light-hearted dig at them! (honestly, some of
that pseudo-knowledgable claptrap is plain silly as the outcomes show
that they don't know what they are talking about - running sore,
sorry!). It's a shame Richard took that another way. I'm just not sure
about the strength of the link between changes in the stratosphere and
events at particular locations at the surface. I did so much reading
around this about a year ago and well before last January's remarkable
event, however, from what I know at the moment, the link is at the
mesoscale and is not easily transferrable to forecasting colder
weather in a small location like the UK.

I'm also aware that a lot of research is currently under way and
despite Richard's unnecessary comments, (which are water of a duck's,
TBH) I'm actually genuinely interested in the research he's referred
to this year. Of course these events happen very quickly and to
incorporate them into forecasts may not be easy, but if anyone knows
more, it would be very interesting to find out how things stand at the
moment with stratosphere/troposphere/surface relationships and
especially with the effects of SSWs and their use in forecasting.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

This is what you wrote in your first post:

(quote) Oh no! Not the good old SSW events, a staple of the writings
of
Internet winter forecasters! (Together with a whole plethora of
anything that might possibly, on a good day, with a following and
rather cool breeze, induce a temperature drop!). Outcomes Will. If
these things are "*often* triggered by events in the stratosphere"
why
are they not forecastable with accuracy on a more regular basis?

Research shows tentative links, but that's all they are. Maybe future
research will bring stratosheric warming more into mainstream
forecasting of the onset of colder conditions in a UK winter. I
wouldn't rule it out, but neither would I go anything like as far as
"often"! (end quote)

The general tenor of this first post is to pooh-pooh the importance
of SSW's and those who use them. No other interpetation is possible
and it is quite incompatible with what you wrote in reply to Will. I
strongly suspect that you actually know next to nothing about SSW's
and only Richard's suggestion that there may be something of
importance in them got you belatedly realising you were over-
dismissive in your first post, and much thanks he got.
So, will the real Dawlish please stand up. Is it to be Dawlish
the SSW-belittler or Dawlish the SSW-believer? It seems to depends on
who's listening. But *is* there a real Dawlish, or is he merely some
insubstantial entity who knows a few buzzwords but is not too certain
when to utter them? I seem to recall the words "baroclinic leaf"
appearing in one your posts when it was obvious to those who know a
bit that the Low under consideration could not possibly display this
feature at that stage of development. And in the summer there were
many "plumes", as if that were the only way we could get warm
weather. Do you actually know *anything*? Nobody likes a phoney.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"Tudor Hughes" wrote in message
...
On Dec 11, 12:54 pm, Dawlish wrote:
But *is* there a real Dawlish, or is he merely some
insubstantial entity who knows a few buzzwords but is not too certain
when to utter them? I seem to recall the words "baroclinic leaf"
appearing in one your posts when it was obvious to those who know a
bit that the Low under consideration could not possibly display this
feature at that stage of development. And in the summer there were
many "plumes", as if that were the only way we could get warm
weather. Do you actually know *anything*? Nobody likes a phoney.

You must have been thinking of this thread on the 13 November when phoney
Dawlish typed

(quote)
"Dawlish" wrote in message

Watch out for the baroclinic leaf!

==========

Wrong sort of system Paul! This is more of an "instant occlusion"
cyclogenesis event. Already a trough was indicated on the 0600 FAX analysis
from MetO indicating the start of the process.
The occlusion will then wrap round a cold air low spawned by mass ascent
under upper level vorticity. At the base of the "wrap round" will be a
possible "sting jet" or core of storm force winds. See T+24 MetO forecast
FAX chart valid at 0600 UTC tomorrow, it looks frightening!

Will
(endquote)

And of course phoney Dawlish fell silent then and hoped nobody would notice.

--
Ned - who'll no doubt be "safely ignored" as will Tudor.

"Ned" wrote in message
...
And of course phoney Dawlish fell silent then and hoped nobody would
notice.

--
Ned - who'll no doubt be "safely ignored" as will Tudor.

PS don't mention vorticity else Dawlish will tell you he can derive the
vorticity equation from first principles:-)

--
Ned

On Dec 11, 8:15*pm, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Dec 11, 12:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:







I feel the same about events in the stratosphere affecting surface
conditions, Will, as I've said. There are links and I'm convinced that
these affect surface conditions. My original comment was not a
criticism, but was a questioning of the "often" that you put in your
post. Others have used SSWs in silly ways to justify cold forecasts in
the past, hence my very light-hearted dig at them! (honestly, some of
that pseudo-knowledgable claptrap is plain silly as the outcomes show
that they don't know what they are talking about - running sore,
sorry!). It's a shame Richard took that another way. I'm just not sure
about the strength of the link between changes in the stratosphere and
events at particular locations at the surface. I did so much reading
around this about a year ago and well before last January's remarkable
event, however, from what I know at the moment, the link is at the
mesoscale and is not easily transferrable to forecasting colder
weather in a small location like the UK.

I'm also aware that a lot of research is currently under way and
despite Richard's unnecessary comments, (which are water of a duck's,
TBH) I'm actually genuinely interested in the research he's referred
to this year. Of course these events happen very quickly and to
incorporate them into forecasts may not be easy, but if anyone knows
more, it would be very interesting to find out how things stand at the
moment with stratosphere/troposphere/surface relationships and
especially with the effects of SSWs and their use in forecasting.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* * *This is what you wrote in your first post:

(quote) Oh no! Not the good old SSW events, a staple of the writings
of
Internet winter forecasters! (Together with a whole plethora of
anything that might possibly, on a good day, with a following and
rather cool breeze, induce a temperature drop!). Outcomes Will. If
these things are "*often* triggered by events in the stratosphere"
why
are they not forecastable with accuracy on a more regular basis?

Research shows tentative links, but that's all they are. Maybe future
research will bring stratosheric warming more into mainstream
forecasting of the onset of colder conditions in a UK winter. I
wouldn't rule it out, but neither would I go anything like as far as
"often"! *(end quote)

* *The general tenor of this first post is to pooh-pooh the importance
of SSW's and those who use them. * No other interpetation is possible
and it is quite incompatible with what you wrote in reply to Will. * I
strongly suspect that you actually know next to nothing about SSW's
and only Richard's suggestion that there may be something of
importance in them got you belatedly realising you were over-
dismissive in your first post, and much thanks he got.
* * *So, will the real Dawlish please stand up. *Is it to be Dawlish
the SSW-belittler or Dawlish the SSW-believer? *It seems to depends on
who's listening. *But **is* there a real Dawlish, or is he merely some
insubstantial entity who knows a few buzzwords but is not too certain
when to utter them? *I seem to recall the words "baroclinic leaf"
appearing in one your posts when it was obvious to those who know a
bit that the Low under consideration could not possibly display this
feature at that stage of development. *And in the summer there were
many "plumes", as if that were the only way we could get warm
weather. *Do you actually know *anything*? *Nobody likes a phoney.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Is this the same Hughes who has just said it is best to ignore people
he doesn't like on another thread and hasn't added a single item of
any worth to this newsgroup for over 3 days until he decides to abuse
me? I think that says everything.

Without any abuse in return...........*very* safely ignored.

On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:39:38 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

Is this the same Hughes who has just said it is best to ignore people
he doesn't like on another thread and hasn't added a single item of
any worth to this newsgroup for over 3 days until he decides to abuse
me? I think that says everything.

Without any abuse in return...........*very* safely ignored.

Why not answer properly?

This is a .sci newsgroup and your scientific competence has been
questioned by an experienced and knowledgeable member of this group. If
future posts of yours are to have any authority we ought to have a
proper answer.

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

"Mike Tullett" schreef in bericht
...
: Very sadly I think Rich means it, after many years here :-(

I sincerely hope not.

Colin Youngs
Brussels

On Dec 11, 9:39*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 11, 8:15*pm, Tudor Hughes wrote:





On Dec 11, 12:54*pm, Dawlish wrote:

I feel the same about events in the stratosphere affecting surface
conditions, Will, as I've said. There are links and I'm convinced that
these affect surface conditions. My original comment was not a
criticism, but was a questioning of the "often" that you put in your
post. Others have used SSWs in silly ways to justify cold forecasts in
the past, hence my very light-hearted dig at them! (honestly, some of
that pseudo-knowledgable claptrap is plain silly as the outcomes show
that they don't know what they are talking about - running sore,
sorry!). It's a shame Richard took that another way. I'm just not sure
about the strength of the link between changes in the stratosphere and
events at particular locations at the surface. I did so much reading
around this about a year ago and well before last January's remarkable
event, however, from what I know at the moment, the link is at the
mesoscale and is not easily transferrable to forecasting colder
weather in a small location like the UK.

I'm also aware that a lot of research is currently under way and
despite Richard's unnecessary comments, (which are water of a duck's,
TBH) I'm actually genuinely interested in the research he's referred
to this year. Of course these events happen very quickly and to
incorporate them into forecasts may not be easy, but if anyone knows
more, it would be very interesting to find out how things stand at the
moment with stratosphere/troposphere/surface relationships and
especially with the effects of SSWs and their use in forecasting.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

* * *This is what you wrote in your first post:

(quote) Oh no! Not the good old SSW events, a staple of the writings
of
Internet winter forecasters! (Together with a whole plethora of
anything that might possibly, on a good day, with a following and
rather cool breeze, induce a temperature drop!). Outcomes Will. If
these things are "*often* triggered by events in the stratosphere"
why
are they not forecastable with accuracy on a more regular basis?

Research shows tentative links, but that's all they are. Maybe future
research will bring stratosheric warming more into mainstream
forecasting of the onset of colder conditions in a UK winter. I
wouldn't rule it out, but neither would I go anything like as far as
"often"! *(end quote)

* *The general tenor of this first post is to pooh-pooh the importance
of SSW's and those who use them. * No other interpetation is possible
and it is quite incompatible with what you wrote in reply to Will. * I
strongly suspect that you actually know next to nothing about SSW's
and only Richard's suggestion that there may be something of
importance in them got you belatedly realising you were over-
dismissive in your first post, and much thanks he got.
* * *So, will the real Dawlish please stand up. *Is it to be Dawlish
the SSW-belittler or Dawlish the SSW-believer? *It seems to depends on
who's listening. *But **is* there a real Dawlish, or is he merely some
insubstantial entity who knows a few buzzwords but is not too certain
when to utter them? *I seem to recall the words "baroclinic leaf"
appearing in one your posts when it was obvious to those who know a
bit that the Low under consideration could not possibly display this
feature at that stage of development. *And in the summer there were
many "plumes", as if that were the only way we could get warm
weather. *Do you actually know *anything*? *Nobody likes a phoney.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Is this the same Hughes who has just said it is best to ignore people
he doesn't like on another thread and hasn't added a single item of
any worth to this newsgroup for over 3 days until he decides to abuse
me? I think that says everything.

Without any abuse in return...........*very* safely ignored.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I haven't said anything about SSW's because I can't add to the
knowledge that already exists. Neither can you but that doesn't stop
you going on about how important or unimportant they are, which ever
it is. Very few of your posts actually say very much. When not rude
they are merely torrents of waffle carefully designed to look
authoritative but have little content and leave one weary at the
verbiage. When did you last make a perceptive comment about the
actual weather we (or you) are experiencing? A long time ago, if
ever. That would be getting a bit too close to the coal-face for such
a chartwise sophisticate and may not show you in the best light.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:18:07 -0000, "Jon O'Rourke"
wrote:

There are limits, Alan ;-)

Oh? ;-)

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:- http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

On Dec 12, 9:01*am, Alan White wrote:
On Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:18:07 -0000, "Jon O'Rourke"

wrote:
There are limits, Alan ;-)

Oh? ;-)

--
Alan White
Mozilla Firefox and Forte Agent.
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow, overlooking Lochs Long and Goil in Argyll, Scotland.
Webcam and weather:-http://windycroft.gt-britain.co.uk/weather

Let's return to what I actually said, as "my competence has been
questioned by an experienced and knowledgeable member of this
group." (Blimy!)

I said this, amongst a continued and well-sourced gripe against
amateur winter forecasters who look for cold every year and get their
forecasts regularly wrong because they fly in the face of a warming
trend - happy with that knowledge? I hope you've researched that
subject as well as I have over the years. That gripe is unlikely to
disappear as the outcomes over time prove them wrong. SSTs have been
used by these people to bolster their ideas and hence my comments.

*********"Outcomes Will. If these things are "*often* triggered by
events in the stratosphere" why are they not forecastable with
accuracy on a more regular basis?*************

Then we have someone not reading the post properly and simply getting
his points wrong and ending it with a personal and wholly wrong barb.
The one link provided shows no such link to UK weather *often*, yet
*I* then get someone else questioning my knowledge on the subject. We
also have another poster, who, despite confessing to little knowledge
on the subject and having adding precisely nothing to the discussion
on the subject, is happy to criticise my knowledge and offer the usual
level of abuse and prejudice. Always the way and it always draws in
the usual suspects.

If any one of you can lead me to recent research - there was none that
I found during extensive Internet research at the end of last year
(and the year before) - that shows that my original assertion that SSW
events do have a direct statistical link to surface conditions in the
UK and that link can help forecasters of cold weather in the UK to
produce better forecasts, then, as I've very politely said, under a
great deal of provocation........I would be really interested in
reading it.

AND you *must* do that without disingenuous, personal and entirely
unnecessary attacks - exactly what Richard Dixon did - or you will
now, quite understandably, get no reply.