Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs
lately. I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I
just wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs lately.
I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I just
wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--

On Jan 22, 6:07*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message

...

Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs lately.
I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I just
wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--

I'd counsel not to dismiss the gfs, Keith or Will, or you might just
miss the time when it is likely to be right and UKMO is no use at 10
days. The models show what they show Keith. I don't think they have a
bias towards mild, or cold, but if you like either of those two in
winter and a model doesn't show what you are hoping for, I appreciate
that could get frustrating. In forecasting at 10 days I can't afford
to be looking for a particular weather type, or it would introduce a
bias that would have wrecked my success percentages! That's why the
winter-cold-forecasters never actually have long-term track record of
success, but, ironically, garner all sorts of praise as forecasters
(from other coldies, almost always) when a cold winter, like this
colder half-to-two-thirds-of-a-winter (so far), happens along!

3 runs with high pressure close to, or over us at T+240. Just enough
to perk up my interest!

non existant forecast #293982377424724

chicken

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:07 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message

...

Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs lately.
I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I just
wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?
I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net
Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--

I'd counsel not to dismiss the gfs, Keith or Will, or you might just
miss the time when it is likely to be right and UKMO is no use at 10
days. The models show what they show Keith. I don't think they have a
bias towards mild, or cold, but if you like either of those two in
winter and a model doesn't show what you are hoping for, I appreciate
that could get frustrating. In forecasting at 10 days I can't afford
to be looking for a particular weather type, or it would introduce a
bias that would have wrecked my success percentages! That's why the
winter-cold-forecasters never actually have long-term track record of
success, but, ironically, garner all sorts of praise as forecasters
(from other coldies, almost always) when a cold winter, like this
colder half-to-two-thirds-of-a-winter (so far), happens along!

3 runs with high pressure close to, or over us at T+240. Just enough
to perk up my interest!

On Jan 22, 6:41*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:07*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message

...

Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs lately.
I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I just
wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--

I'd counsel not to dismiss the gfs, Keith or Will, or you might just
miss the time when it is likely to be right and UKMO is no use at 10
days. The models show what they show Keith. I don't think they have a
bias towards mild, or cold, but if you like either of those two in
winter and a model doesn't show what you are hoping for, I appreciate
that could get frustrating. In forecasting at 10 days I can't afford
to be looking for a particular weather type, or it would introduce a
bias that would have wrecked my success percentages! That's why the
winter-cold-forecasters never actually have long-term track record of
success, but, ironically, garner all sorts of praise as forecasters
(from other coldies, almost always) when a cold winter, like this
colder half-to-two-thirds-of-a-winter (so far), happens along!

3 runs with high pressure close to, or over us at T+240. Just enough
to perk up my interest!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM now agreeing with the gfs at T240. high pressure close by to
the south and a westerly flow around the top of the high. That's the
closest agreement between the two in quite a while - and *if* this
were to verify, the gfs would have picked this trend up well before
the ECM. I'm beginning to get a little more interested!

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs
lately. I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I
just wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--


Yes but the UKMO model doesn't exactly stick its neck out does it, you
smooth talking devil.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 22, 6:07 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message

...

Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs
lately.
I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I just
wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--

I'd counsel not to dismiss the gfs, Keith or Will, or you might just
miss the time when it is likely to be right and UKMO is no use at 10
days. The models show what they show Keith. I don't think they have a
bias towards mild, or cold, but if you like either of those two in
winter and a model doesn't show what you are hoping for, I appreciate
that could get frustrating. In forecasting at 10 days I can't afford
to be looking for a particular weather type, or it would introduce a
bias that would have wrecked my success percentages! That's why the
winter-cold-forecasters never actually have long-term track record of
success, but, ironically, garner all sorts of praise as forecasters
(from other coldies, almost always) when a cold winter, like this
colder half-to-two-thirds-of-a-winter (so far), happens along!

3 runs with high pressure close to, or over us at T+240. Just enough
to perk up my interest!



"I'd counsel not to dismiss the gfs, Keith or Will, or you might just
miss"


You can say the same for Mystic Meg

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Jan 22, 6:41 pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 22, 6:07 pm, "Will Hand" wrote:





"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message

...

Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs
lately.
I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I just
wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being
out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of
lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky
and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present
in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been
unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--

I'd counsel not to dismiss the gfs, Keith or Will, or you might just
miss the time when it is likely to be right and UKMO is no use at 10
days. The models show what they show Keith. I don't think they have a
bias towards mild, or cold, but if you like either of those two in
winter and a model doesn't show what you are hoping for, I appreciate
that could get frustrating. In forecasting at 10 days I can't afford
to be looking for a particular weather type, or it would introduce a
bias that would have wrecked my success percentages! That's why the
winter-cold-forecasters never actually have long-term track record of
success, but, ironically, garner all sorts of praise as forecasters
(from other coldies, almost always) when a cold winter, like this
colder half-to-two-thirds-of-a-winter (so far), happens along!

3 runs with high pressure close to, or over us at T+240. Just enough
to perk up my interest!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z ECM now agreeing with the gfs at T240. high pressure close by to
the south and a westerly flow around the top of the high. That's the
closest agreement between the two in quite a while - and *if* this
were to verify, the gfs would have picked this trend up well before
the ECM. I'm beginning to get a little more interested!
==============

But the dynamical evolution of the two models before then is quite
different. Any comparison at T+240 is down to chance I'd say.

Will
--

In article ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes:

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs
lately. I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I
just wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--


Yes but the UKMO model doesn't exactly stick its neck out does it, you
smooth talking devil.



My guess is that it's available internally in the Met Office out to more
days than the public gets to see, and of course as a Met Office employee
Will would get to see those extra days.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article ,
Lawrence Jenkins writes:

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

"Keith(Southend)" wrote in message
...
Gfs seems to be consistently not keen on cold weather in it's runs
lately. I know Will's mentioned it's gone off the rails a little, but I
just wonder whether it *may* turn out to be right?

I shall have to turn to another model to get my fix!
--
Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
e-mail: kreh at southendweather dot net

Keith, and others. The runs just don't look realistic as well as being
out
on a limb. I mentioned several weeks ago that I felt it's handling of
lows
on occasion was weird, some of the isobars in that 12Z run look shaky
and
too wobbly it's almost as if there are numerical instabilities present
in
the calculations. Sometimes its OK, but recently it has been
unrealistic.

The 12Z GFS OP run is once again a warm outlier.

UKMO has been pretty good of late!

Will
--


Yes but the UKMO model doesn't exactly stick its neck out does it, you
smooth talking devil.



My guess is that it's available internally in the Met Office out to more
days than the public gets to see, and of course as a Met Office employee
Will would get to see those extra days.
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)


Well Sufferin suckertash he shoulda said so.