The ECM has finally come into line with the gfs and has abandoned the
really cold northerly. Now the two models have enough agreement, to go
with the consistency that the gfs has shown, to lead me to the
following 10-day forecast.

**At T240 on 2nd Feb, the weather in the UK will be controlled by an
anticyclone close enough to produce a flow over the UK mainly between
south-west and north-west i.e, with an Atlantic origin. Temperatures
will be reasonably close to average for the start of February, but
there may be night frosts if the skies clear. The anticyclone, whilst
located in mid-Atlantic for a while will have produced a transient
northerly in the run-up to the 2nd Feb, but will have moved south-
eastwards to kill this by the 2nd, introducing the Atlantic air. Any
wintriness at this forecast outcome time, will be limited to the
hills, with rain at lower levels.**

I don't see the really cold air coming from any direction for any
length of time over the next 10 days. The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd), but slowly, as
temperatures over the next 10 days will be generally below average
more times than we have milder weather and January will end up a cold
month overall.

It'll be colder this week for a few days with a short-lived easterly
before turning milder, then there will be a northerly for a few days,
but without a particularly cold source, it won't produce a great deal
more than upland snow. (Northerlies just ain't what they used to be!).
Then we have the return to pretty average temperatures at the start of
February.

That's my take on it! *))

In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd)

Just to clarify for any readers who might be confused, I think that is
the size of the anomaly rather than the actual mean temperature.

Can't disagree with your forecast, though the ECM operational run is
hinting at the possibility of another northerly setting in just after
the end of its run. (And as I've mentioned elsewhere, the 12Z GFS
ensemble is tantalisingly hinting at the possibility of something cold
beginning some 14 days out.)
--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
snip
The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd)

Just to clarify for any readers who might be confused, I think that is
the size of the anomaly rather than the actual mean temperature.

Can't disagree with your forecast, though the ECM operational run is
hinting at the possibility of another northerly setting in just after
the end of its run. (And as I've mentioned elsewhere, the 12Z GFS
ensemble is tantalisingly hinting at the possibility of something cold
beginning some 14 days out.)
--

UKMO the most consistent model so far seems reluctant to sink the high south
and indeed at T+144 on 29th Jan has 520 DAM air advecting SSW into eastern
England raising the possibility of widespread lowland snow in the east.

That ECM run looks to be in transition with its twin vortices west and east
of Greenland. Possibly the beginnings of a northern block?

Will
--

what a load of ****ing bollox.


Dawlish wrote:
The ECM has finally come into line with the gfs and has abandoned the
really cold northerly. Now the two models have enough agreement, to go
with the consistency that the gfs has shown, to lead me to the
following 10-day forecast.

**At T240 on 2nd Feb, the weather in the UK will be controlled by an
anticyclone close enough to produce a flow over the UK mainly between
south-west and north-west i.e, with an Atlantic origin. Temperatures
will be reasonably close to average for the start of February, but
there may be night frosts if the skies clear. The anticyclone, whilst
located in mid-Atlantic for a while will have produced a transient
northerly in the run-up to the 2nd Feb, but will have moved south-
eastwards to kill this by the 2nd, introducing the Atlantic air. Any
wintriness at this forecast outcome time, will be limited to the
hills, with rain at lower levels.**

I don't see the really cold air coming from any direction for any
length of time over the next 10 days. The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd), but slowly, as
temperatures over the next 10 days will be generally below average
more times than we have milder weather and January will end up a cold
month overall.

It'll be colder this week for a few days with a short-lived easterly
before turning milder, then there will be a northerly for a few days,
but without a particularly cold source, it won't produce a great deal
more than upland snow. (Northerlies just ain't what they used to be!).
Then we have the return to pretty average temperatures at the start of
February.

That's my take on it! *))

On Jan 23, 10:19*pm, Terry Tibbs wrote:
what a load of ****ing bollox

Terry, STFU

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
The ECM has finally come into line with the gfs and has abandoned the
really cold northerly. Now the two models have enough agreement, to go
with the consistency that the gfs has shown, to lead me to the
following 10-day forecast.

**At T240 on 2nd Feb, the weather in the UK will be controlled by an
anticyclone close enough to produce a flow over the UK mainly between
south-west and north-west i.e, with an Atlantic origin. Temperatures
will be reasonably close to average for the start of February, but
there may be night frosts if the skies clear. The anticyclone, whilst
located in mid-Atlantic for a while will have produced a transient
northerly in the run-up to the 2nd Feb, but will have moved south-
eastwards to kill this by the 2nd, introducing the Atlantic air. Any
wintriness at this forecast outcome time, will be limited to the
hills, with rain at lower levels.**

I don't see the really cold air coming from any direction for any
length of time over the next 10 days. The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd), but slowly, as
temperatures over the next 10 days will be generally below average
more times than we have milder weather and January will end up a cold
month overall.

It'll be colder this week for a few days with a short-lived easterly
before turning milder, then there will be a northerly for a few days,
but without a particularly cold source, it won't produce a great deal
more than upland snow. (Northerlies just ain't what they used to be!).
Then we have the return to pretty average temperatures at the start of
February.

That's my take on it! *))

Paul mate give it a bloody rest you keep chopping and changing with every
model twistand turn and that's it you just seem to be hunting the edge of
the ensembles we can all do that. Its like if you talk the jargon enough it
makes you an expert. I note that Joe B has seen nothing startling and sio
has nothing to say; yet you seem to spot a new trend every couple of
days-its ridiculous. Its like market research great at finding whats safe
but can never inovate something new.

"fred" wrote in message
...
On Jan 23, 10:19 pm, Terry Tibbs wrote:
what a load of ****ing bollox

Terry, STFU

Terry is right its just model gibberish from Paul

"John Hall" wrote :
In article Dawlish writes:
snip
The CET will continue to recover
to the end of the month (Philip has -3.6C to the 22nd)

Just to clarify for any readers who might be confused, I think that is
the size of the anomaly rather than the actual mean temperature.

Yes ... the house-style in Royal Met Soc journals is
°C for actual temperature values and degC for
temperature differences. It's sensible to differentiate
between the two, although trying to explain this to
newspaper sub-editors quickly meets with eyes
glazing over.

pe

On Sat, 23 Jan 2010 20:42:36 -0000, "Dave Cornwell"
wrote:



Probably something along those lines, I would imagine. What I have noticed
is that when there is a lot of uncertainty it rarely seems to end with a
cold solution.

Noting the model watching going on, I am saying to neighbours that
there is no particular signal for anything and just take each day as
it comes

R

In article ,
Will Hand writes:
The northerly looks to have some bite with sub -5C at 850hPa even from GFS!
00Z GFS massive warm outlier after T+168.

Yes, there's a big change between yesterday's 12Z and last night's 00Z.
The ensemble mean 850mb temperature is now consistently around -5C all
the way from the northerly setting in out to the end of the run.

UKMO still consistent and fits in with first principles.
ECM hinting at a cool northwesterly eventually but its a long way out,
especially with things happening in the stratosphere.


--
John Hall
"Acting is merely the art of keeping a large group of people
from coughing."
Sir Ralph Richardson (1902-83)