On 26/02/10 20:38, Will Hand wrote:
Alex, the Great Storm of 1987 was over 22 years ago and NWP has moved a
long way. It too IIRC was a Shapiro-Keyser system with a seclusion (warm
core), but Shapiro-Keyser had not written their paper in 1987 so the
understanding was less. What that storm did was to focus forecaster's
minds on making better use of satellite imagery to spot conceptual
features. The modelling of this storm looks to be superb capturing the
west-east orientation and warm air seclusion process typical of this
kind of system. Because the model is capturing the dynamics it should
get the wind forecast right too, the only error is likely to be track
and possibly depth. Alex, models have moved a vast amount since the days
of 1987, those models could be run on a modern day PC, nowadays a fast
supercomputer is required.

That would have been in the days of the Cyber 205, I think. I see that
supercomputer had a theoretical peak performance of 200 MFLOPS. The
model installed in 1985 at Florida State had a core memory of 32 MiB and
7.2 GiB of on-line disk space. I've no idea how many MFLOPS PCs would be
rated at these days but memory and disk space is certainly larger.

I think the computer that ran the three-parameter model back when I was
new to the Office, would have been about the same specs as a Sinclair
Spectrum.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks., UK. E-mail: newsman not newsboy
"I wear the cheese. It does not wear me."

On Fri, 26 Feb 2010 19:18:24 -0000, "Alex Stephens Jr"
wrote:

Who was that lady who telephoned the beeb on a certain day in October 1987
to ask if there was a hurricane on the way?
And if she's still around, will she call them tomorrow and ask the same?
I'll bet she'd get the same response if she did.

I think she lives/lived in Cheltenham.

R

"Dawlish" schreef in bericht
news:523bcec0-adf3-47f6-b938-
Just looked at T+60
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/..._pressure.html
Eeek!

It is an eek! Mr. Brain on Spotlight was highlighting the stormy
potential even here, some distance from the "eye". Coastal flooding
and perhaps lee snow potential on the moors too. It'll be an
interesting day - but perhaps nothing like as interesting as the
weather in Northern France. That really looks like it may be an "eek!".
__________________

Météo France warns of the possibility of 120 km/h gusts in France on
Saturday night or Sunday. They suggest that the areas most susceptible to
strong winds are the west and centre, the Paris area, and then the NE.

http://france.meteofrance.com/france...revisionsinfos

Belgian forecast is for wind and rain on Sunday but nothing dramatic
http://www.meteo.be/meteo/view/en/21....html?period=2

Colin Youngs
Brussels

In message , Yokel
writes

....

As I recall it, the actual
path of the depression was picked up in time for emergency warnings to be
got out to the authorities, but by then most of the general public were
either in bed or preparing to retire there.
.....

Which was the most sensible place to be. Talked to a neighbour as he
came out of his Police Station mid-evening. We both remarked the rise in
temperature.

Stirred briefly when a small length of sofit detached and the loft-hatch
lifted into the loft. Surprised to have apparently slept clock-radio
alarm....


Headline MetO warning for Sunday is for heavy rain, mentioning wind also
in detail.

xcweather has the brunt in mid-Channel with 6/7 but F4/5 for S England.
Initially E, backs as centre of low crosses Kent about 0600 then W from
1200


Does XC run off GFS or is my memory at fault?

--
Peter Thomas

Alex, models have moved a vast amount since the days of 1987, those models
could be run on a modern
day PC, nowadays a fast supercomputer is required.

Will
--
I thought the GFS operational run past T+120 was run on a Nintendo DS ;-)
Dave

"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
Alex, models have moved a vast amount since the days of 1987, those
models could be run on a modern
day PC, nowadays a fast supercomputer is required.

Will
--
I thought the GFS operational run past T+120 was run on a Nintendo DS ;-)
Dave

ROFL you are funny Dave.

I have a Wii :-)

Will
--

"Peter Thomas" wrote in message
...
| In message , Yokel
| writes
|
| ...
|
| As I recall it, the actual
| path of the depression was picked up in time for emergency warnings to be
| got out to the authorities, but by then most of the general public were
| either in bed or preparing to retire there.
| ....
|
| Which was the most sensible place to be. Talked to a neighbour as he
| came out of his Police Station mid-evening. We both remarked the rise in
| temperature.
|
| Stirred briefly when a small length of sofit detached and the loft-hatch
| lifted into the loft. Surprised to have apparently slept clock-radio
| alarm....
|
|
| Headline MetO warning for Sunday is for heavy rain, mentioning wind also
| in detail.
|
| xcweather has the brunt in mid-Channel with 6/7 but F4/5 for S England.
| Initially E, backs as centre of low crosses Kent about 0600 then W from
| 1200
|
|
| Does XC run off GFS or is my memory at fault?
|

"Mouse over" a location on the map so the forecast display comes up. At the
foot of the right hand column is the credit to GFS, together with the run
time used.
--
- Yokel -

"Yokel" posts via a spam-trap account which is not read.