On 11/08/2010 10:41, d wrote:
On Wed, 11 Aug 2010 09:56:20 +0100
Martin wrote:

The amount of CO2 and CH4 we are emitting now is already enough to be a
nuisance in the longer term. Problem is that it will only really cause

Methane isn't the big problem people keep going on about. Yes its a much
stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 , OTOH its half life in the atmosphere
is all of 7 years compared with a few hundred for CO2.

And it becomes CO2 after it has oxidised. One possible signature of life
is finding CH4 present in an otherwise oxidising atmosphere - which is
why there is so much interest in the traces seen on Mars.

It isn't quite that clear cut either. If we screw up big time (which I
think is still a long way off) and trigger release of the methane locked
in permafrost and deep ocean clathrates in significant amounts then it
could be an important driver in future GW forcing.

Regards,
Martin Brown

On Aug 11, 11:18*am, Martin Brown
wrote:
On 11/08/2010 10:41, wrote:

On Wed, 11 Aug 2010 09:56:20 +0100
Martin *wrote:
The amount of CO2 and CH4 we are emitting now is already enough to be a
nuisance in the longer term. Problem is that it will only really cause

Methane isn't the big problem people keep going on about. Yes its a much
stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 , OTOH its half life in the atmosphere
is all of 7 years compared with a few hundred for CO2.

And it becomes CO2 after it has oxidised. One possible signature of life
is finding CH4 present in an otherwise oxidising atmosphere - which is
why there is so much interest in the traces seen on Mars.

It isn't quite that clear cut either. If we screw up big time (which I
think is still a long way off) and trigger release of the methane locked
in permafrost and deep ocean clathrates in significant amounts then it
could be an important driver in future GW forcing.

Regards,
Martin Brown

Yes, it's the positive feedbacks which are likely to happen that are
built into the model projections - with decent sized error bars of
course

On Wednesday 11 August 2010 10:57, John Hall scribbled:

It's not what he intends, but if anyone could convince me that AGW isn't
happening it would be Alastair. (Similarly Lawrence's posts on the
subject also have the opposite effect to that intended.)


Reminds me of a one-day strike we had a few decades ago. That morning, I
listened to our union leader on the Today programme and he seemed to have
such a poor grasp on the reason we were striking that I was ready to go to
work instead. Then the government minister came on and after a minute or two
of listening to his tommy-rot I stormed off to join the picket line.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: "newsman", not "newsboy".
"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out." - Carl
Sagan

Anyone care to take a stab at the knock on effects from the Russian
Heatwave for this coming Autumn & Winter?

Will Moscow experience a wetter than average Autumn, or even an
exceptional cold Winter to balance out the exceptional heat at the
moment?

Also, how will these synoptics (if they happen) impact on the weather
in the UK for this coming Autumn/Winter.

If we can keep the debate away from AGW, and consentrate on the
synoptics, it would be most appreciated.

On Wednesday 11 August 2010 12:03, Teignmouth scribbled:

Anyone care to take a stab at the knock on effects from the Russian
Heatwave for this coming Autumn & Winter?

I can't see how there'd be any.


Will Moscow experience a wetter than average Autumn, or even an
exceptional cold Winter to balance out the exceptional heat at the
moment?

Balancing-out doesn't work over such a short time scale. The last time I
used that argument was October 1975. My neighbours had asked whether the hot
dry summer would be repeated the following year. "Balancing-out" was one of
several reasons I gave for saying it wouldn't. I should have known better
but at least I haven't made the same mistake again.


--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: "newsman", not "newsboy".
"It pays to keep an open mind, but not so open your brains fall out." - Carl
Sagan

On Wed, 11 Aug 2010 03:26:33 -0700 (PDT)
Dawlish wrote:
h
stronger greenhouse gas than CO2 , OTOH its half life in the atmosphere
is all of 7 years compared with a few hundred for CO2.

And it becomes CO2 after it has oxidised. One possible signature of life

True, but the amount of CO2 created from naturally oxidised methane is
insignificant compared to whats already being released from other sources.

B2003

On Aug 11, 12:03*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
Anyone care to take a stab at the knock on effects from the Russian
Heatwave for this coming Autumn & Winter?

Will Moscow experience a wetter than average Autumn, or even an
exceptional cold Winter to balance out the exceptional heat at the
moment?

Also, how will these synoptics (if they happen) impact on the weather
in the UK for this coming Autumn/Winter.

If we can keep the debate away from AGW, and consentrate on the
synoptics, it would be most appreciated.

No. Balancing out never works, except on a global scale and whan the
balancing isn't working and global temperatures are rising, then you
are left with GW. It's hard to escape linking to GW when someone posts
silliness like local synoptics are an indication of GW, or even AGW.
I've done my best to dispel that idea. Time to leave this one, maybe!
*))