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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#21
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![]() "Will Hand" wrote in message ... "Col" wrote in message ... It's just a coincidence. Think of all the weather/geological coincidences that could happen, but don't. It's hardly surprising that every so often a chance alignment of the two effects occurs. In fact it would be far more surprising if they *didn't*. But beyond this there is no connection. One event does not cause the other, neither does some mysterious force cause both events to occur. If you think that it does, and what I dismiss as mere coincidence is the basis for a genuine scientific connection, then by all means show some real evidence. But if you cannot, and all you can say is that the two events must be related simply because they occured together, well that's a basis for absolutely nothing. -- Col Hi Col, it may well be a coincidence, it may not. If Science only relied on definite evidence from the outcome then very little progress will be made. Real Science demands an open and enquiring mind to form *reasonable* hypotheses which can then be pursued. Some hypotheses come to nothing, others lead to evidence based theories and sometimes scientific proof. But if hypotheses are never formed in the first place and explored then we will continue to live in ignorance and belief. I follow hypotheses at work in my research and in 2002 one came off with a published paper on the synoptic causality of extreme rainfall events in the UK! Perhaps this thread should dicuss the reasonableness of links between earthquakes and hurricanes and how such an idea could be pursued? I wouldn't disagree with much of that, you are indeed correct in saying that new ideas come along (like this one) that challenge conventional scientific thought, and if you 'believe' in them, which is all it is at this point then you will find evidence if they are correct. I do not however appreciate Bjørn's attitude that anybody who supports the mainstream view is 'arrogant' That in itself smacks of arrogance. Supporting conventional wisdom, until suitable evidence to the contrary is obtained is surely the only sensible standpoint to take. A healthy scepticism, and all that. I have however given reasons why I believe these events to be mere coincidence, and therefore why I do not think this to be correct. If it were, where are all the other unusual weather events ocurring in the same place and same time as other major earthquakes, Japan Tsunami, Boxing day Tsunami and the like? -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
#22
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![]() "Bjørn Sørheim" wrote in message ... ----------------- Yes I laugh! You are indeed a laughable stock, all you that can't relate to new ideas in science. For one thing I can't see what problems you see with this idea. You don't express any, just tired useless expressions like 'brain falling out'. Come with a *plausible* explanation to why widely different physical conditions -pressure,weight here- of the different layers of the Earth wouldn't have implications for the layers below and their movement. It doesn't work like that. When you come up with a new idea that challenges conventional science, it is not up to the 'establishment' to disprove your theory or come up with reasons why it shouldn't work. Rather it is up to you to prove you are correct. Did Einstein with his new-fangled 'Theory of Relativity' ask the scientific community to come up with reasons why it was wrong? No, he *proved* it was correct. And now it's part of mainstream science and universally accepted. Thanks to Will and Michael for the support. Note this was Michael's idea from the start. I hope *that* is not the problem, but it seems it is... Weatherlawyer might have more interest in his ideas if he presented them in a coherent manner. -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
#23
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![]() "Col" skrev i melding ... "Bjørn Sørheim" wrote in message ... ----------------- Yes I laugh! You are indeed a laughable stock, all you that can't relate to new ideas in science. For one thing I can't see what problems you see with this idea. You don't express any, just tired useless expressions like 'brain falling out'. Come with a *plausible* explanation to why widely different physical conditions -pressure,weight here- of the different layers of the Earth wouldn't have implications for the layers below and their movement. It doesn't work like that. And what do YOU present to give me any reason to listen to you? Nothing, so this remark is worthless. When you come up with a new idea that challenges conventional science, it is not up to the 'establishment' to disprove your theory or come up with reasons why it shouldn't work. Rather it is up to you to prove you are correct. No, when I seriously put forward a new hypothesis in science, it must automaticly be adressed by the scientific community or any other with serious interest in the field for that matter. Because if not so done the new thoughts will gain weight and an audience. So the defenders of the current conventional wisdom have a standing plight to defend their beliefs with real counter arguments, it not they will be overrun and forgotten. If they can't come up with any defence against the new paradigm it will of course slide quietly into current science. Did Einstein with his new-fangled 'Theory of Relativity' ask the scientific community to come up with reasons why it was wrong? No, he *proved* it was correct. And now it's part of mainstream science and universally accepted. Glad you mentioned 'Theory of Relativity' . I would say that theory was far more revolutionary than what I and Michael are talking about. Our thoughts only involves some 'old boring' Newtonian mechanics, so much easier to accept for everyone. Einstein's ideas wasn't that easily accepted either btw, he never got any Nobel Price for his work on Relativity. I'm quite shure Einstein wanted couter arguments against his radical thougts, and I'm shure he had many discussions with serious people around him. He was indeed a gregarious person and his wife was also deep into physics and mathematics so he got good constructive feedback there. Thanks to Will and Michael for the support. Note this was Michael's idea from the start. I hope *that* is not the problem, but it seems it is... Weatherlawyer might have more interest in his ideas if he presented them in a coherent manner. Could be, but that doesn't give less value to his basic ideas. rn Sørheim |
#24
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so youre in the country you most hate, you call them racists and nutters
1000 times a month on usenet. pot, kettle , black, NUTTER On 25/08/2011 5:38 PM, Dawlish wrote: : I do think Denver is out of the danger zone! Mainstream science provides some very plausible explanations. You are welcome to believe in this stuff, as is W, or Will, but few would agree with you that earth movements' pricipal causes are atmospheric baroclinic changes and gravity changes, for good reason. I think few, least of all me, would dismiss the possibilities; it's just that the relationships and outcomes simply don't support those causes having the effects you propose Bjorn. I also said nothing about "brains falling out". The quote was not mine, so please don't attribute it to me. The last earthquake of that magnitude here was on May 31st 1897 and there is no way it would have coincided with a hurricane on that date. Here's some info: |
#25
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![]() "Bjørn Sørheim" wrote in message ... "Col" skrev i melding ... "Bjørn Sørheim" wrote in message ... ----------------- Yes I laugh! You are indeed a laughable stock, all you that can't relate to new ideas in science. For one thing I can't see what problems you see with this idea. You don't express any, just tired useless expressions like 'brain falling out'. Come with a *plausible* explanation to why widely different physical conditions -pressure,weight here- of the different layers of the Earth wouldn't have implications for the layers below and their movement. It doesn't work like that. And what do YOU present to give me any reason to listen to you? Nothing, so this remark is worthless. I have presented a case elsewhere on this thread as to why I consider your hypothesis to be wrong. But that wasn't even the point I was making. I was saying that the scientific method doesn't revolve around current thinking attempting to disprove any new theories, rather it's the job of the new theory to disprove the current thinking. When you come up with a new idea that challenges conventional science, it is not up to the 'establishment' to disprove your theory or come up with reasons why it shouldn't work. Rather it is up to you to prove you are correct. No, when I seriously put forward a new hypothesis in science, it must automaticly be adressed by the scientific community or any other with serious interest in the field for that matter. Because if not so done the new thoughts will gain weight and an audience. Incorrect. It will be met with whatever response the scientific community deems fit. This may be dismissal, ridicule, sceptisism, interest, indifference or any number of other responses. There is no onus on anyone to formally 'defend' current thinking against whatever hypothesis somebody might dream up, though they may wish to do so. The onus is on the person making the claim to prove it. So the defenders of the current conventional wisdom have a standing plight to defend their beliefs with real counter arguments, it not they will be overrun and forgotten. If they can't come up with any defence against the new paradigm it will of course slide quietly into current science. Before 'conventional wisdom' has even a chance to defend itself with counter-arguments, your new paradigm needs to have some arguments beyond coincidence.... Did Einstein with his new-fangled 'Theory of Relativity' ask the scientific community to come up with reasons why it was wrong? No, he *proved* it was correct. And now it's part of mainstream science and universally accepted. Glad you mentioned 'Theory of Relativity' . I would say that theory was far more revolutionary than what I and Michael are talking about. Our thoughts only involves some 'old boring' Newtonian mechanics, so much easier to accept for everyone. Einstein's ideas wasn't that easily accepted either btw, he never got any Nobel Price for his work on Relativity. I'm quite shure Einstein wanted couter arguments against his radical thougts, and I'm shure he had many discussions with serious people around him. He was indeed a gregarious person and his wife was also deep into physics and mathematics so he got good constructive feedback there. I'm sure he got arguments against it, but you are missing the point as usual. He didn't sit back and wait for 'weak' arguments against him to prove him right, he made a far more positive step and simply proved his ideas correct in the first place. Weatherlawyer might have more interest in his ideas if he presented them in a coherent manner. Could be, but that doesn't give less value to his basic ideas. Glad you've actually worked out what they are.... -- Col Bolton, Lancashire 160m asl |
#26
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![]() "Dawlish" skrev i melding ... On Aug 24, 7:05 pm, "Bjørn Sørheim" wrote: Yes I laugh! You are indeed a laughable stock, all you that can't relate to new ideas in science. For one thing I can't see what problems you see with this idea. You don't express any, just tired useless expressions like 'brain falling out'. Come with a *plausible* explanation to why widely different physical conditions -pressure,weight here- of the different layers of the Earth wouldn't have implications for the layers below and their movement. Thanks to Will and Michael for the support. Note this was Michael's idea from the start. I hope *that* is not the problem, but it seems it is... Bjørn Sørheim P:S: I do think Denver is out of the danger zone! Mainstream science provides some very plausible explanations. No, you are dead wrong there. Since the 'invention' of plate tectonics, or its acceptance in the 60s, the most lacking feature of this backbone of geology is precisely its lack of explanation of WHY the plates moves - or why they move when they move. Mostly the first. There are at least 5+ competing theories concerning why they move, some hillarious to me. So better theories are indeed needed. This discussion must also be seen in the light of this lack of credible explanation. You are welcome to believe in this stuff, as is W, or Will, but few would agree with you that earth movements' pricipal causes are atmospheric baroclinic changes and gravity changes, for good reason. I think few, least of all me, would dismiss the possibilities; it's just that the relationships and outcomes simply don't support those causes having the effects you propose Bjorn. I also said nothing about "brains falling out". The quote was not mine, so please don't attribute it to me. The last earthquake of that magnitude here was on May 31st 1897 and there is no way it would have coincided with a hurricane on that date. Here's some info: http://www.virginiaplaces.org/geology/quake.html I read through that. I found no information about meteorological phenomena there. Pure geology/seismology as expected. But the author/authors are not idiots because of that, of course. To make one thing clear. I have never written or implied anywhere in this thread or previous threads concerning this matter discussed here, that an earthquke _needs_ a hurricane or any other weather phenomena to occur or be released. In fact, if the Earth were without an atmosphere I would think there would be *about* just the same amount of earthquakes as we observe here and now. But NOTE: They wouldn't happen at the exact time as on a planet with atmosphere. The tensions in the plates and at the faults do build up generally by quite other forces than are caused by meteorological phenomena. But the often occuring forceful activity in the atmosphere is at times the needed force that can release this tension - prior to what would be the case without an atmosphere. Tropical and extra-tropical hurricanes is of course the prime example of what can cause a release. Through the much lower pressure over a plate or a fault, and through the imense collective rotating force of wind and waves. The events haven't even occurred at exactly the same time and as yet, there has been no hurricane. in response, I challenge you to link such events in a statistically relevant way. There is no research that I'm aware of, or can find, that would support you. As I have written before on this; It was not my idea, I'm not a scientist in this field really, so I doubt I will take the time. I challenge other closer to the subject to look into this, but of course these are very interesting questions... For others to say that "It may be coincidence, it may not", implies far more possibility that any evidence shows and that is not the workings of a scientific mind. It is the workings of a mind that wants to believe in something, without really examining the odds against it being found to be correct. By all means formulate hypotheses. Humans do every day of their lives, unconsciously, as a hypothesis is a possibility, but most humans dismiss the possibilities and accept the null hypothesis when the outcomes simply don't fit what they think may occur. Presently, the odds of such links between hurricanes and earthquakes being found to be significant are very high, I'm afraid; far too high to attract my belief, for sure. I think that is exactly what this thread should - and is - discussing; the chances of there being a link. If you only adhere to old thinking you would say that, you need to look at some new possibilities. Bjørn Sørheim |
#27
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#28
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On Aug 24, 7:01*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Bjørn Sørheim wrote: Today as I'm shure many of you know two earthquakes occured in the US, one right at the Kansas/New Mexico border with magnitude 5.3, *later in the afternoon, (UTC), a 5.8 magnitude in Virginia near Wahington DC! These are magnitudes that I personally have not seen in these areas, but they might occur at _long_ intervals as is known. But what is strikingly apparent is that at this PRECISE instant the worst hurricane since 2008 (which was Ike) is born in the Carribean and is fast approaching the US east coast. Just north of Hispanola at the moment. Name: Irene. If someone were to tell me these three events were not related, I don't know what I would do *- probably just laugh?!?? Bjørn Sørheim ----------------- Time for a bit of a laugh then mate!- - Show quoted text - Quite. This is the most bonkers thread I have read on this group for years. Do hurricanes cause earthquakes or vice versa? Nobody seems to know. I put it all down to the civil war in Libya. You can't tell me that such a momentous event has no repercussions globally, possibly throughout the galaxy. That and the approaching opposition of Jupiter. Them satellites! And a pile-up on the B269. Kinobvious innit. The whole world is connected in ways that we don't even know we don't know about you mark my words mate oh Jeff mine's a Hophead an' a packet o' peanuts cor 'oos that bird. Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. |
#29
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![]() "Stephen Davenport" wrote in message ... On Aug 23, 9:18 pm, "Bj rn S rheim" wrote: Today as I'm shure many of you know two earthquakes occured in the US, one right at the Kansas/New Mexico border with magnitude 5.3, later in the afternoon, (UTC), a 5.8 magnitude in Virginia near Wahington DC! These are magnitudes that I personally have not seen in these areas, but they might occur at _long_ intervals as is known. But what is strikingly apparent is that at this PRECISE instant the worst hurricane since 2008 (which was Ike) is born in the Carribean and is fast approaching the US east coast. Just north of Hispanola at the moment. Name: Irene. If someone were to tell me these three events were not related, I don't know what I would do - probably just laugh?!?? Bj rn S rheim Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. In any case, Irene had formed before these earthquakes not at that "precise moment". Stephen. I once spent some time working as a forecaster in Ancona on the Italian Adriatic. One February, after a ridge of high pressure, an unusually deep depression crossed the Italian peninsular, and just as it did so there was an earthquake at Ancona. I was impressed by the coincidence of timing. I wondered if it was possible that offshore oil-drilling had left the subterranean strata in such a critically unstable state that the slightest fillip â like the lifting of about 5% of the weight of the atmosphere off the surface â could cause a movement. Then I thought, âwhat, through 2 miles of solid rock, I donât think soâ. So I concluded it was most likely coincidence, though Iâm still intrigued by the timing. I had a 98-room hotel all to myself for 4 days, but thatâs another story! Ian Bingham, Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire. |
#30
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In message , Ian Bingham
writes "Stephen Davenport" wrote in message ... On Aug 23, 9:18 pm, "Bj rn S rheim" wrote: Today as I'm shure many of you know two earthquakes occured in the US, one right at the Kansas/New Mexico border with magnitude 5.3, later in the afternoon, (UTC), a 5.8 magnitude in Virginia near Wahington DC! These are magnitudes that I personally have not seen in these areas, but they might occur at _long_ intervals as is known. But what is strikingly apparent is that at this PRECISE instant the worst hurricane since 2008 (which was Ike) is born in the Carribean and is fast approaching the US east coast. Just north of Hispanola at the moment. Name: Irene. If someone were to tell me these three events were not related, I don't know what I would do - probably just laugh?!?? Bj rn S rheim Cum hoc ergo propter hoc. In any case, Irene had formed before these earthquakes not at that "precise moment". Stephen. I once spent some time working as a forecaster in Ancona on the Italian Adriatic. One February, after a ridge of high pressure, an unusually deep depression crossed the Italian peninsular, and just as it did so there was an earthquake at Ancona. I was impressed by the coincidence of timing. I wondered if it was possible that offshore oil-drilling had left the subterranean strata in such a critically unstable state that the slightest fillip â like the lifting of about 5% of the weight of the atmosphere off the surface â could cause a movement. Then I thought, âwhat, through 2 miles of solid rock, I donât think soâ. So I concluded it was most likely coincidence, though Iâm still intrigued by the timing. I had a 98-room hotel all to myself for 4 days, but thatâs another story! Ian Bingham, Inchmarlo, Aberdeenshire. A question that comes to mind is how long does it take for the change in the loading on the surface by the atmosphere to propagate down to the depths at which initial earthquake ruptures occur? Also, why does lowered air pressure in the tropical Atlantic trigger earthquakes in Virginia and New Mexico? Shouldn't one expect the earthquake to occur when the hurricane strikes Virginia? -- Stewart Robert Hinsley |
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