In message
,
Alastair writes
On Nov 15, 4:22*pm, James Brown
wrote:
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png
--
James Brown

Not according to this chart:
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/.../observation_i
mages/ssmi_ice_area.png

Cheers, Alastair.

I don't trust that one
--
James Brown

James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as the title
of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached less than the 2007
level this year. I'm afraid by just trotting out the 'snapshot' mantra
you are deluding yourself Paul into thinking the Arctic ice is in better
shape than it really is.

James
--
James Brown

On Nov 16, 9:01*am, James Brown
wrote:
James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as the title
of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached less than the 2007
level this year. I'm afraid by just trotting out the 'snapshot' mantra
you are deluding yourself Paul into thinking the Arctic ice is in better
shape than it really is.

James
--
James Brown

It was Will that mentioned "snapshot"; you have me confused with him.
Scroll back and I can assure you that I don't feel that Arctic sea ice
is "in good shape" - I seldom "delude myself" about Arctic sea ice and
if you'd read my comments over the years, you'd know that. The trend
in the Arctic sea ice minimum is downward, but that doesn't change the
fact that short-term, unusual fluctuations in extent during the melt
season are always quickly reversed, as NSIDC shows already, only a day
after your initial post, James.

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/i...timeseries.png

What you did was to try to highlight short-term Arctic sea ice changes
for your own reasons and not simply as an observation. I wouldn't have
contributed to the thread if you'd simply left the initial fact there.
It's unlikely that November changes portend anything to do with GW (it
is dark and cold and the seas will freeze both now and in 2100 and in
2200 in the latter half of November, no matter what happens with
global warming in the meantime) and if you can show anything that
shows that this, very short-term and already temporary change, has
anything to do with the coming UK winter weather, I'd be amazed and
very interested! *))

Thank you for highlighting the fact that there was a short term,
temporary change in Arctic sea ice. Appreciated, really.

On Nov 16, 9:01*am, James Brown
wrote:
James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as the title
of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached less than the 2007
level this year.

That's not strictly true. Look he
http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaice...03_Figure2.png

The problem is you are just handing ammunition to the deniers who will
claim it is just weather.

The point you should be making is that those graphs show that sea ice
is well below the 1979 - 2000 average. In fact it is significantly
outside the 2 sigma standard deviation, making it clear that there has
been a climate change there since 2007 at least. If we have another
2007 type event then the sea ice may not recover by the following
spring, and then it is goodbye sea ice :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

On Nov 16, 9:41*am, Alastair wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:01*am, James Brown
wrote:

James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as the title
of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached less than the 2007
level this year.

That's not strictly true. Look hehttp://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaice...03_Figure2.png

The problem is you are just handing ammunition to the deniers who will
claim it is just weather.

The point you should be making is that those graphs show that sea ice
is well below the 1979 - 2000 average. In fact it is significantly
outside the 2 sigma standard deviation, making it clear that there has
been a climate change there since 2007 at least. If we have another
2007 type event then the sea ice may not recover by the following
spring, and then it is goodbye sea ice :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

Do you really think there will be no sea ice in the Arctic in winter
in the near future? How much do you think winter Arctic temperatures
averaging -20-30C every single day for 3+ months warm over the next
century!

It will be goodbye *summer* sea ice, for a short time, at some time,
probably in the next 30-50 years Alastair, not goodbye Arctic sea ice
in its entirity!

On Wed, 16 Nov 2011 01:50:08 -0800 (PST)
Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 9:41Â*am, Alastair wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:01Â*am, James Brown
wrote:

James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as the
title of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached less
than the 2007 level this year.

That's not strictly true. Look
hehttp://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaice...03_Figure2.png

The problem is you are just handing ammunition to the deniers who
will claim it is just weather.

The point you should be making is that those graphs show that sea
ice is well below the 1979 - 2000 average. In fact it is
significantly outside the 2 sigma standard deviation, making it
clear that there has been a climate change there since 2007 at
least. If we have another 2007 type event then the sea ice may not
recover by the following spring, and then it is goodbye sea ice :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

Do you really think there will be no sea ice in the Arctic in winter
in the near future? How much do you think winter Arctic temperatures
averaging -20-30C every single day for 3+ months warm over the next
century!

It will be goodbye *summer* sea ice, for a short time, at some time,
probably in the next 30-50 years Alastair, not goodbye Arctic sea ice
in its entirity!


If the ice is lost during the summer, which looks sure to happen
this decade, so will be the layer of fresh surface water. This would
make the re-freezing of the Arctic more difficult in winter. It was the
theory fifty years ago that if the ice completely melted, it wouldn't
return in winter. Consequences of that could be the sudden end of this
interglacial with onset of glaciation.

I understand that computer models now say that the ice would return in
winter, but we know how successful they've been at predicting the
response of ice to AGW. ;-)

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change boy to man
Teach evolution, not creationism: http://evolutionnotcreationism.org.uk/

On Nov 16, 10:19*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 16 Nov 2011 01:50:08 -0800 (PST)





Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:41*am, Alastair wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:01*am, James Brown
wrote:

James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as the
title of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached less
than the 2007 level this year.

That's not strictly true. Look
hehttp://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaice...03_Figure2.png

The problem is you are just handing ammunition to the deniers who
will claim it is just weather.

The point you should be making is that those graphs show that sea
ice is well below the 1979 - 2000 average. In fact it is
significantly outside the 2 sigma standard deviation, making it
clear that there has been a climate change there since 2007 at
least. If we have another 2007 type event then the sea ice may not
recover by the following spring, and then it is goodbye sea ice :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

Do you really think there will be no sea ice in the Arctic in winter
in the near future? How much do you think winter Arctic temperatures
averaging -20-30C every single day for 3+ months warm over the next
century!

It will be goodbye *summer* sea ice, for a short time, at some time,
probably in the next 30-50 years Alastair, not goodbye Arctic sea ice
in its entirity!

If the ice is lost during the summer, which looks sure to happen
this decade, so will be the layer of fresh surface water. This would
make the re-freezing of the Arctic more difficult in winter. It was the
theory fifty years ago that if the ice completely melted, it wouldn't
return in winter. Consequences of that could be the sudden end of this
interglacial with onset of glaciation.

I understand that computer models now say that the ice would return in
winter, but we know how successful they've been at predicting the
response of ice to AGW. ;-)

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change boy to man
Teach evolution, not creationism:http://evolutionnotcreationism.org.uk/- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

At -30 for 3 months+ it won't make a great deal of difference though,
surely graham, it will just delay the freezing a little longer - which
may well be already happening as vast areas that remained frozen
through the whole year,are now ice-free through late summer and
through September. They still freeze quickly once winter starts with a
vengeance and they are almost all completely frozen again by December.

What you did was to try to highlight short-term Arctic sea ice changes
for your own reasons and not simply as an observation. I wouldn't have
contributed to the thread if you'd simply left the initial fact there.

Just clarify Paul - my 'own reasons' are simply firstly that I am
interested when records are broken, but then I also consider the Arctic
basin and ice cap an area of special scientific concern. I have no axe
to grind.

J.
--
James Brown

On Wed, 16 Nov 2011 02:28:23 -0800 (PST)
Dawlish wrote:

On Nov 16, 10:19Â*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 16 Nov 2011 01:50:08 -0800 (PST)





Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:41Â*am, Alastair
wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:01Â*am, James Brown
wrote:

James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as
the title of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached
less than the 2007 level this year.

That's not strictly true. Look
hehttp://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaice...03_Figure2.png

The problem is you are just handing ammunition to the deniers
who will claim it is just weather.

The point you should be making is that those graphs show that
sea ice is well below the 1979 - 2000 average. In fact it is
significantly outside the 2 sigma standard deviation, making it
clear that there has been a climate change there since 2007 at
least. If we have another 2007 type event then the sea ice may
not recover by the following spring, and then it is goodbye sea
ice :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

Do you really think there will be no sea ice in the Arctic in
winter in the near future? How much do you think winter Arctic
temperatures averaging -20-30C every single day for 3+ months
warm over the next century!

It will be goodbye *summer* sea ice, for a short time, at some
time, probably in the next 30-50 years Alastair, not goodbye
Arctic sea ice in its entirity!

If the ice is lost during the summer, which looks sure to happen
this decade, so will be the layer of fresh surface water. This would
make the re-freezing of the Arctic more difficult in winter. It was
the theory fifty years ago that if the ice completely melted, it
wouldn't return in winter. Consequences of that could be the sudden
end of this interglacial with onset of glaciation.

I understand that computer models now say that the ice would return
in winter, but we know how successful they've been at predicting the
response of ice to AGW. ;-)



At -30 for 3 months+ it won't make a great deal of difference though,
surely graham, it will just delay the freezing a little longer - which
may well be already happening as vast areas that remained frozen
through the whole year,are now ice-free through late summer and
through September. They still freeze quickly once winter starts with a
vengeance and they are almost all completely frozen again by December.

Will it be -30C with all that open water? Possibly so well away from
the coasts but it would be much higher over and near the Arctic Ocean.

With the likelihood of increased storminess in the region, the water
would get mixed to a much greater depth. If the salinity increased
enough, convective mixing would prevent re-freezing. The layer of fresh
water within the ice pack, in polynyas and leads in the summer, the
water is fresh enough to drink and only about 15 feet deep. As you get
away from the ice, the salinity would increase and depth of the surface
layer would increase, thus slowing refreezing. However, that's nowhere
near as difficult as trying to cool 2,000 ft of water to -1.8C.

I'm not saying this will happen. Just pointing out that scientists
considered it could happen and also that it had happened during
previous warming periods.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change boy to man
Teach evolution, not creationism: http://evolutionnotcreationism.org.uk/

On Nov 16, 11:03*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 16 Nov 2011 02:28:23 -0800 (PST)





Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 10:19*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 16 Nov 2011 01:50:08 -0800 (PST)

Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:41*am, Alastair
wrote:
On Nov 16, 9:01*am, James Brown
wrote:

James has done a
Larry/April 2010 here.

Not correct as if you look carefully at the graph this is as
the title of this thread indicated, the FIRST time it reached
less than the 2007 level this year.

That's not strictly true. Look
hehttp://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaice...03_Figure2.png

The problem is you are just handing ammunition to the deniers
who will claim it is just weather.

The point you should be making is that those graphs show that
sea ice is well below the 1979 - 2000 average. In fact it is
significantly outside the 2 sigma standard deviation, making it
clear that there has been a climate change there since 2007 at
least. If we have another 2007 type event then the sea ice may
not recover by the following spring, and then it is goodbye sea
ice :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

Do you really think there will be no sea ice in the Arctic in
winter in the near future? How much do you think winter Arctic
temperatures averaging -20-30C every single day for 3+ months
warm over the next century!

It will be goodbye *summer* sea ice, for a short time, at some
time, probably in the next 30-50 years Alastair, not goodbye
Arctic sea ice in its entirity!

If the ice is lost during the summer, which looks sure to happen
this decade, so will be the layer of fresh surface water. This would
make the re-freezing of the Arctic more difficult in winter. It was
the theory fifty years ago that if the ice completely melted, it
wouldn't return in winter. Consequences of that could be the sudden
end of this interglacial with onset of glaciation.

I understand that computer models now say that the ice would return
in winter, but we know how successful they've been at predicting the
response of ice to AGW. ;-)

At -30 for 3 months+ it won't make a great deal of difference though,
surely graham, it will just delay the freezing a little longer - which
may well be already happening as vast areas that remained frozen
through the whole year,are now ice-free through late summer and
through September. They still freeze quickly once winter starts with a
vengeance and they are almost all completely frozen again by December.

Will it be -30C with all that open water? Possibly so well away from
the coasts but it would be much higher over and near the Arctic Ocean.

With the likelihood of increased storminess in the region, the water
would get mixed to a much greater depth. If the salinity increased
enough, convective mixing would prevent re-freezing. The layer of fresh
water within the ice pack, in polynyas and leads in the summer, the
water is fresh enough to drink and only about 15 feet deep. As you get
away from the ice, the salinity would increase and depth of the surface
layer would increase, thus slowing refreezing. However, that's nowhere
near as difficult as trying to cool 2,000 ft of water to -1.8C.

I'm not saying this will happen. Just pointing out that scientists
considered it could happen and also that it had happened during
previous warming periods.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change boy to man
Teach evolution, not creationism:http://evolutionnotcreationism.org.uk/- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

It's interesting. Thanks. I suppose it's a case of wait and see, or
most probably, drop off one's iceberg and let someone else see! *))