Both 12z ECM and 12z gfs showing some agreement about milder
temperatures again after a slightly cooler spell sets in for a few
days from about Friday onwards. There aren't any "cool westerlies"
presently and there haven't been in the second half of November. We've
got zonal conditions with mainly mild southerlies and south-westerlies
across the whole of the UK today, contributing to this November ending
up close to a record month in terms of temperatures. the zonal
conditions are leading to generally milder than average conditions,
with the odd day being cooler and some frosts developing, if the skies
clear overnight.

Nothing particularly cold is on the models ATM

yes the North and Scotland do exist IMHO

Will, spot on again.
Well done.

On 28/11/2011 8:43 PM, Dawlish wrote:
There aren't any "cool westerlies"

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

Both 12z ECM and 12z gfs showing some agreement about milder
temperatures again after a slightly cooler spell sets in for a few
days from about Friday onwards. There aren't any "cool westerlies"
presently and there haven't been in the second half of November. We've
got zonal conditions with mainly mild southerlies and south-westerlies
across the whole of the UK today, contributing to this November ending
up close to a record month in terms of temperatures. the zonal
conditions are leading to generally milder than average conditions,
with the odd day being cooler and some frosts developing, if the skies
clear overnight.

Nothing particularly cold is on the models ATM
===========================================

Cooler? Definitely colder here and looking at the GFS ensembles likely to be
mostly so until 7 or 8th Dec with milder 'blip' on third!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Thursday and Friday largely dry and cold while weekend forecast now to be
blustery and cool. So I think cold or "cool westerlies" are present now and
the bar the 3rd most days likely to be below average temperature-wise or, at
best, average!

Of course this applies to my neck of the woods so not sure what you're going
to see in Dawlish but good luck with the generally milder than average
conditions if you can hang on to them! ;-


Joe
Dublin (Under COLD westerlies....)

In article ,
Joe Whyte writes:
Cooler? Definitely colder here and looking at the GFS ensembles
likely to be mostly so until 7 or 8th Dec with milder 'blip' on third!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Yes, for London too the 12Z ensemble has slightly changed its tune from
earlier runs. Whereas for the past few days it has been showing a cool
week or so then giving way to average-to-mild conditions, on the 12Z
it's showing it remaining on the cool side throughout. However one needs
to enter three caveats:

1. Beyond ten days one probably shouldn't take too much notice. This is
the most important caveat, of course.
2. The operational run shows it becoming decidedly mild, though this is
very much an outlier.
3. There doesn't seem to be anything really cold on the horizon. Even
the colder runs in the ensemble don't get down below about -5C at 850mb,
apart from the odd day here and there, and (disregarding the possibility
of an inversion) one really needs something like -8 to -10 to get
anything really wintry.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw

"John Hall" wrote in message
...
Yes, for London too the 12Z ensemble has slightly changed its tune from
earlier runs. Whereas for the past few days it has been showing a cool
week or so then giving way to average-to-mild conditions, on the 12Z
it's showing it remaining on the cool side throughout. However one needs
to enter three caveats:

1. Beyond ten days one probably shouldn't take too much notice. This is
the most important caveat, of course.
2. The operational run shows it becoming decidedly mild, though this is
very much an outlier.
3. There doesn't seem to be anything really cold on the horizon. Even
the colder runs in the ensemble don't get down below about -5C at 850mb,
apart from the odd day here and there, and (disregarding the possibility
of an inversion) one really needs something like -8 to -10 to get
anything really wintry.
--
John Hall
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
by those who have not got it."
George Bernard Shaw
================================================== =======

I agree John and, while cold, it's not Piers Corbyn-esque type cold with his
80% change of significant snowfalls on 2/3rd and 14th(?) Dec unless you
could hilltops in the North...which he will no doubt!

Normal winter weather for a while as far as I'm concerned with a few cold
days; risk of frost at night; some wintry and possibly squally showers. It's
been a while and it is noticeably colder than recent but nothing close to
this time last year as I well know. Beyond ten days I take just a slight
notice and look for trends....and more trends and even then...who really
knows!!


Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

On Nov 29, 8:13*pm, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"John Hall" *wrote in message

...
Yes, for London too the 12Z ensemble has slightly changed its tune from
earlier runs. Whereas for the past few days it has been showing a cool
week or so then giving way to average-to-mild conditions, on the 12Z
it's showing it remaining on the cool side throughout. However one needs
to enter three caveats:

1. Beyond ten days one probably shouldn't take too much notice. This is
the most important caveat, of course.
2. The operational run shows it becoming decidedly mild, though this is
very much an outlier.
3. There doesn't seem to be anything really cold on the horizon. Even
the colder runs in the ensemble don't get down below about -5C at 850mb,
apart from the odd day here and there, and (disregarding the possibility
of an inversion) one really needs something like -8 to -10 to get
anything really wintry.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw
================================================== =======

I agree John and, while cold, it's not Piers Corbyn-esque type cold with his
80% change of significant snowfalls on 2/3rd and 14th(?) Dec unless you
could hilltops in the North...which he will no doubt!

Normal winter weather for a while as far as I'm concerned with a few cold
days; risk of frost at night; some wintry and possibly squally showers. It's
been a while and it is noticeably colder than recent but nothing close to
this time last year as I well know. *Beyond ten days I take just a slight
notice and look for trends....and more trends and even then...who really
knows!!

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

I agree with both of you. Once you watch ensembles, day after day, you
see that they change on a daily basis. To pick a particular ensemble
run and try to use it to back an idea of "cold" westerlies is just
plain silly, after ignoring the last 32days of ensembles, because they
showed a little warmer than you would like. There's no particular
temperature signal there, except that zonal weather is likely to
continue - hence my forecast.

No particularly cold weather out to 10 days. An Atlantic, zonal
regime, with just about exactly what you've said there John. The
forecasts of Siberial cold, or the many forecasts of a change to *any*
particularly cold weather for the start of December, which were doing
the rounds a while ago (Neo appears to have disappeared) are dead in
the water. There'll be more forecasts of the same soon; you can bet
your winter life on it and sometime, someone, will get it right at
outcome and not at forecast. *))

oh dear , poor loser again
have a read of the 0-15 day outlook
its mentions cold and westerlies

you a liar and crook.
everyone can see that

and u wonder why neo doesnt post
he saw you coming a mile off

On 29/11/2011 9:27 PM, Dawlish wrote:

No particularly cold weather out to 10 days. An Atlantic, zonal
regime, with just about exactly what you've said there John. The
forecasts of Siberial cold, or the many forecasts of a change to *any*
particularly cold weather for the start of December, which were doing
the rounds a while ago (Neo appears to have disappeared) are dead in
the water. There'll be more forecasts of the same soon; you can bet
your winter life on it and sometime, someone, will get it right at
outcome and not at forecast. *))

sorry what was that?

On 28/11/2011 8:43 PM, Dawlish wrote:
There aren't any "cool westerlies"


Nothing particularly cold is on the models ATM

On Nov 29, 8:13*pm, "Joe Whyte" wrote:
"John Hall" *wrote in message

...
Yes, for London too the 12Z ensemble has slightly changed its tune from
earlier runs. Whereas for the past few days it has been showing a cool
week or so then giving way to average-to-mild conditions, on the 12Z
it's showing it remaining on the cool side throughout. However one needs
to enter three caveats:

1. Beyond ten days one probably shouldn't take too much notice. This is
the most important caveat, of course.
2. The operational run shows it becoming decidedly mild, though this is
very much an outlier.
3. There doesn't seem to be anything really cold on the horizon. Even
the colder runs in the ensemble don't get down below about -5C at 850mb,
apart from the odd day here and there, and (disregarding the possibility
of an inversion) one really needs something like -8 to -10 to get
anything really wintry.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw
================================================== =======

I agree John and, while cold, it's not Piers Corbyn-esque type cold with his
80% change of significant snowfalls on 2/3rd and 14th(?) Dec unless you
could hilltops in the North...which he will no doubt!

Normal winter weather for a while as far as I'm concerned with a few cold
days; risk of frost at night; some wintry and possibly squally showers. It's
been a while and it is noticeably colder than recent but nothing close to
this time last year as I well know. *Beyond ten days I take just a slight
notice and look for trends....and more trends and even then...who really
knows!!

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

Nothing changes this morning. Ensembles show a continuation of zonal
conditions with some milder and some cooler days. Temperature
somewhere close to average, or a little below, through much of the
period, with snow over the northern hills on a fairly regular basis.
Will could see his first snowflake at Haytor early next week. There's
a risk of a couple of colder days and snow at lower levels in the
North from time to time, especially at 9/10 days with the 12z ECM from
yesterday showing a possible northerly and the 00z gfs showing a cold
north-westerly. This models show, as Darren says, an oscillation
between milder and cooler days as the depressions pass. Typical
Atlantic, zonal weather. It will be wet at times and windy at times,
for sure! The majority of the UK will remain snowless.

The odds on a white Christmas are as you would expect - heavily
stacked in favour of the bookies! 7/1 against in London. I always get
interested around the 15th. What I'd like are some model sniffs of
possible snow on Christmas day and the usual suspects shouting about
it on the Internet. I'd like some "forecaster" to predict in in a
Daily Express headline very soon and get the public interested. Then
if the models show agreement and consistency for a green Christmas,
I'll hopefully dive in at odds of around 1/4, or 1/5 around 10-12 days
out. It pays for Christmas lunch quite regularly - but the key, as
always, is in knowing when *not* to bet - and for that you've got to
know your models at distance.

On Nov 30, 6:55*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 29, 8:13*pm, "Joe Whyte" wrote:





"John Hall" *wrote in message

.. .
Yes, for London too the 12Z ensemble has slightly changed its tune from
earlier runs. Whereas for the past few days it has been showing a cool
week or so then giving way to average-to-mild conditions, on the 12Z
it's showing it remaining on the cool side throughout. However one needs
to enter three caveats:

1. Beyond ten days one probably shouldn't take too much notice. This is
the most important caveat, of course.
2. The operational run shows it becoming decidedly mild, though this is
very much an outlier.
3. There doesn't seem to be anything really cold on the horizon. Even
the colder runs in the ensemble don't get down below about -5C at 850mb,
apart from the odd day here and there, and (disregarding the possibility
of an inversion) one really needs something like -8 to -10 to get
anything really wintry.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw
================================================== =======

I agree John and, while cold, it's not Piers Corbyn-esque type cold with his
80% change of significant snowfalls on 2/3rd and 14th(?) Dec unless you
could hilltops in the North...which he will no doubt!

Normal winter weather for a while as far as I'm concerned with a few cold
days; risk of frost at night; some wintry and possibly squally showers. It's
been a while and it is noticeably colder than recent but nothing close to
this time last year as I well know. *Beyond ten days I take just a slight
notice and look for trends....and more trends and even then...who really
knows!!

Joe
Dublin
28m AMSL

Nothing changes this morning. Ensembles show a continuation of zonal
conditions with some milder and some cooler days. Temperature
somewhere close to average, or a little below, through much of the
period, with snow over the northern hills on a fairly regular basis.
Will could see his first snowflake at Haytor early next week. There's
a risk of a couple of colder days and snow at lower levels in the
North from time to time, especially at 9/10 days with the 12z ECM from
yesterday showing a possible northerly and the 00z gfs showing a cold
north-westerly. This models show, as Darren says, an oscillation
between milder and cooler days as the depressions pass. Typical
Atlantic, zonal weather. It will be wet at times and windy at times,
for sure! The majority of the UK will remain snowless.

The odds on a white Christmas are as you would expect - heavily
stacked in favour of the bookies! 7/1 against in London. I always get
interested around the 15th. What I'd like are some model sniffs of
possible snow on Christmas day and the usual suspects shouting about
it on the Internet. I'd like some "forecaster" to predict in in a
Daily Express headline very soon and get the public interested. Then
if the models show agreement and consistency for a green Christmas,
I'll hopefully dive in at odds of around 1/4, or 1/5 around 10-12 days
out. It pays for Christmas lunch quite regularly - but the key, as
always, is in knowing when *not* to bet - and for that you've got to
know your models at distance.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

There's an interesting and very different chart on the 12z ECM. High
pressure over the UK at 10 days. We haven't seen that for a while! Bet
it's an outlier.