On Jan 7, 9:39*pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...





In article
,
Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.

The 12Z ECM is certainly fast with the development but it doesn't surprise
me with the stratwarm going on and the amplification of the Rossby pattern
(both linked of course). The signal has been pretty consistent for a change
around mid-month, at one stage it looked like a retrogression of the
Canadian vortex and a southerly jet into western Greenland putting us into a
northerly now at closer range massive amplification due to low PV being
pushed northwards is helping to build pressure over Scandinavia as an
extension of the Arctic high encouraged by the stratwarm. It remains to be
seen how severe things will get, but the thought of -40C dewpoints pushing
southwest into western Russia is mouthwatering to say the least!

Will
--



Perhaps time to link back to exactly this time last year and see what
Will was predicting, on the back of a *possible* SSW (that didn't
actually happen!):

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...9641823b980f1#

"The second half of january is likely to be bitter, possibly record
breaking". Oh well........

On Jan 8, 4:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 7, 9:22*pm, John Hall wrote:





In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

You are right about the ensemble mean not changing a great deal. It
shows a cooling trend but nothing particularly cold except for some
colder members. The 12z gfs offers little in the way of actual cold,
but still there's the *potential*!

12z ECM gives little hope to the idea that winter will start after mid-
month either. Certainly a change, but perhaps not the change to cold.
12z ECM sits a benign high over us, with frosty nights and calm and
perhaps sunny days. Yes please, I say! The chances of winter coming
have receded today. There's no agreement between the models however,
so something may still be "brewing" I suppose. I'll wait and reserve
judgement until tomorrow evening.

Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 7, 9:39 pm, "Eskimo Will" wrote:
"John Hall" wrote in message

...





In article
,
Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.

The 12Z ECM is certainly fast with the development but it doesn't surprise
me with the stratwarm going on and the amplification of the Rossby pattern
(both linked of course). The signal has been pretty consistent for a change
around mid-month, at one stage it looked like a retrogression of the
Canadian vortex and a southerly jet into western Greenland putting us into a
northerly now at closer range massive amplification due to low PV being
pushed northwards is helping to build pressure over Scandinavia as an
extension of the Arctic high encouraged by the stratwarm. It remains to be
seen how severe things will get, but the thought of -40C dewpoints pushing
southwest into western Russia is mouthwatering to say the least!

Will
--



Perhaps time to link back to exactly this time last year and see what
Will was predicting, on the back of a *possible* SSW (that didn't
actually happen!):

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sc...9641823b980f1#

"The second half of january is likely to be bitter, possibly record
breaking". Oh well........

Yawn

Orsett, Essex

On Jan 8, 10:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 8, 4:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 7, 9:22*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

You are right about the ensemble mean not changing a great deal. It
shows a cooling trend but nothing particularly cold except for some
colder members. The 12z gfs offers little in the way of actual cold,
but still there's the *potential*!

12z ECM gives little hope to the idea that winter will start after mid-
month either. Certainly a change, but perhaps not the change to cold.
12z ECM sits a benign high over us, with frosty nights and calm and
perhaps sunny days. Yes please, I say! The chances of winter coming
have receded today. There's no agreement between the models however,
so something may still be "brewing" I suppose. I'll wait and reserve
judgement until tomorrow evening.

00z gfs shows athe re-establishment of the jet, over the UK, at 10
days. The emsemble mean shows potentially colder conditions after the
19th, but the "mid-month change" has been all but removed. I'll wait
to see whether the rest of today brings back the hopes of cold, but my
interest in a possible cold spell is waning.

On Jan 9, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 8, 10:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 8, 4:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 7, 9:22*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

You are right about the ensemble mean not changing a great deal. It
shows a cooling trend but nothing particularly cold except for some
colder members. The 12z gfs offers little in the way of actual cold,
but still there's the *potential*!

12z ECM gives little hope to the idea that winter will start after mid-
month either. Certainly a change, but perhaps not the change to cold.
12z ECM sits a benign high over us, with frosty nights and calm and
perhaps sunny days. Yes please, I say! The chances of winter coming
have receded today. There's no agreement between the models however,
so something may still be "brewing" I suppose. I'll wait and reserve
judgement until tomorrow evening.

00z gfs shows athe re-establishment of the jet, over the UK, at 10
days. The emsemble mean shows potentially colder conditions after the
19th, but the "mid-month change" has been all but removed. I'll wait
to see whether the rest of today brings back the hopes of cold, but my
interest in a possible cold spell is waning.

gfs still looking to cold on the 12z operational, past mid-month, but
ECM having nothing to do with it really.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

The difference is quite extreme. I would be surprised if the gfs comes
out on top.

On Jan 9, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 8, 10:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 8, 4:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 7, 9:22*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

You are right about the ensemble mean not changing a great deal. It
shows a cooling trend but nothing particularly cold except for some
colder members. The 12z gfs offers little in the way of actual cold,
but still there's the *potential*!

12z ECM gives little hope to the idea that winter will start after mid-
month either. Certainly a change, but perhaps not the change to cold.
12z ECM sits a benign high over us, with frosty nights and calm and
perhaps sunny days. Yes please, I say! The chances of winter coming
have receded today. There's no agreement between the models however,
so something may still be "brewing" I suppose. I'll wait and reserve
judgement until tomorrow evening.

00z gfs shows athe re-establishment of the jet, over the UK, at 10
days. The emsemble mean shows potentially colder conditions after the
19th, but the "mid-month change" has been all but removed. I'll wait
to see whether the rest of today brings back the hopes of cold, but my
interest in a possible cold spell is waning.

And the ensembles show the 12z gfs is an appalling cold outlier.

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

On Jan 9, 11:03*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 9, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 8, 10:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 8, 4:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 7, 9:22*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

You are right about the ensemble mean not changing a great deal. It
shows a cooling trend but nothing particularly cold except for some
colder members. The 12z gfs offers little in the way of actual cold,
but still there's the *potential*!

12z ECM gives little hope to the idea that winter will start after mid-
month either. Certainly a change, but perhaps not the change to cold.
12z ECM sits a benign high over us, with frosty nights and calm and
perhaps sunny days. Yes please, I say! The chances of winter coming
have receded today. There's no agreement between the models however,
so something may still be "brewing" I suppose. I'll wait and reserve
judgement until tomorrow evening.

00z gfs shows athe re-establishment of the jet, over the UK, at 10
days. The emsemble mean shows potentially colder conditions after the
19th, but the "mid-month change" has been all but removed. I'll wait
to see whether the rest of today brings back the hopes of cold, but my
interest in a possible cold spell is waning.

gfs still looking to cold on the 12z operational, past mid-month, but
ECM having nothing to do with it really.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

The difference is quite extreme. I would be surprised if the gfs comes
out on top.



The 12z was a massive cold outlier. Perhaps the 00z is closer to what
the outcome will probably be - a re-establishment of the zonal
conditions, followingthis week's ridge.

If that proves to be the case, what then would have been the effects
of the stratospheric warming? The minor event is still happening, but
its effects do not appear to be the ones that were proposed. Indeed,
if those charts achieve outcome, will there have been any effect at
all? Jan 2011 again?

On Jan 10, 6:02*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Jan 9, 11:03*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 9, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 8, 10:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 8, 4:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 7, 9:22*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

You are right about the ensemble mean not changing a great deal. It
shows a cooling trend but nothing particularly cold except for some
colder members. The 12z gfs offers little in the way of actual cold,
but still there's the *potential*!

12z ECM gives little hope to the idea that winter will start after mid-
month either. Certainly a change, but perhaps not the change to cold.
12z ECM sits a benign high over us, with frosty nights and calm and
perhaps sunny days. Yes please, I say! The chances of winter coming
have receded today. There's no agreement between the models however,
so something may still be "brewing" I suppose. I'll wait and reserve
judgement until tomorrow evening.

00z gfs shows athe re-establishment of the jet, over the UK, at 10
days. The emsemble mean shows potentially colder conditions after the
19th, but the "mid-month change" has been all but removed. I'll wait
to see whether the rest of today brings back the hopes of cold, but my
interest in a possible cold spell is waning.

gfs still looking to cold on the 12z operational, past mid-month, but
ECM having nothing to do with it really.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

The difference is quite extreme. I would be surprised if the gfs comes
out on top.

The 12z was a massive cold outlier. Perhaps the 00z is closer to what
the outcome will probably be - a re-establishment of the zonal
conditions, followingthis week's ridge.

If that proves to be the case, what then would have been the effects
of the stratospheric warming? The minor event is still happening, but
its effects do not appear to be the ones that were proposed. Indeed,
if those charts achieve outcome, will there have been any effect at
all? Jan 2011 again?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

__________________________________________________ __________________________________

Last night



"gfs still looking to cold on the 12z operational, past mid-month,
but
ECM having nothing to do with it really. The difference is quite
extreme. I would be surprised if the gfs comes
out on top. "


This morning

"The 12z was a massive cold outlier. Perhaps the 00z is closer to
what
the outcome will probably be - a re-establishment of the zonal
conditions, followingthis week's ridge. "


Ah that's what I like. Youv'e used your superior intellect and
knowledge to assess and analyze the model output and seen beyond the
capricious flips and flops of the models. Yes you predicted six hours
into the future that's gotta hurt the Joe B's and Will's of the world
and watch out UKMO. There's a new kid on the block and I don't mean an
Omega.

You changed your tune quicker than Liberace shorting out his
microphone with his silver sequined suit and getting electrocuted half
way through a deep and meaningless recital of Rhapsody in Blue.To be
followed of course by that unknown Gershwin work 'A Yorkshire Twerp in
Dawlish'

On Jan 10, 1:39*pm, Lawrence13 wrote:
On Jan 10, 6:02*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Jan 9, 11:03*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 9, 6:28*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 8, 10:46*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 8, 4:58*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jan 7, 9:22*pm, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Dawlish writes:
You'd think the operational would benefit from a human
throwing it in the bin if it was so far into crazyland!

I imagine that a human only intervenes at the point that the Met Office
and other national met services make their forecasts.

Oh well. Something for the coldies to flock around on the 12z ECM and
gfs, for sure!

The operational 12Z ECM is certainly a surprise. But the ensemble mean
hasn't changed much from recent days, though the standard deviation has
tended gradually to increase from run to run, indicating a reduction in
certainty.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * *"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism
* * * * * * * by those who have not got it."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * George Bernard Shaw

You are right about the ensemble mean not changing a great deal.. It
shows a cooling trend but nothing particularly cold except for some
colder members. The 12z gfs offers little in the way of actual cold,
but still there's the *potential*!

12z ECM gives little hope to the idea that winter will start after mid-
month either. Certainly a change, but perhaps not the change to cold.
12z ECM sits a benign high over us, with frosty nights and calm and
perhaps sunny days. Yes please, I say! The chances of winter coming
have receded today. There's no agreement between the models however,
so something may still be "brewing" I suppose. I'll wait and reserve
judgement until tomorrow evening.

00z gfs shows athe re-establishment of the jet, over the UK, at 10
days. The emsemble mean shows potentially colder conditions after the
19th, but the "mid-month change" has been all but removed. I'll wait
to see whether the rest of today brings back the hopes of cold, but my
interest in a possible cold spell is waning.

gfs still looking to cold on the 12z operational, past mid-month, but
ECM having nothing to do with it really.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2402.png

The difference is quite extreme. I would be surprised if the gfs comes
out on top.

The 12z was a massive cold outlier. Perhaps the 00z is closer to what
the outcome will probably be - a re-establishment of the zonal
conditions, followingthis week's ridge.

If that proves to be the case, what then would have been the effects
of the stratospheric warming? The minor event is still happening, but
its effects do not appear to be the ones that were proposed. Indeed,
if those charts achieve outcome, will there have been any effect at
all? Jan 2011 again?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

__________________________________________________ _________________________*_________

Last night

"gfs still looking to cold on the 12z operational, past mid-month,
but
ECM having nothing to do with it really. The difference is quite
extreme. I would be surprised if the gfs comes
out on top. "

This morning

"The 12z was a massive cold outlier. Perhaps the 00z is closer to
what
the outcome will probably be - a re-establishment of the zonal
conditions, followingthis week's ridge. "

Ah that's what I like. Youv'e used your superior intellect and
knowledge to assess and analyze the model output and seen beyond the
capricious flips and flops of the models. Yes you predicted six hours
into the future that's gotta hurt the Joe B's and Will's of the world
and watch out UKMO. There's a new kid on the block and I don't mean an
Omega.

You changed your tune quicker than Liberace shorting out his
microphone with his silver sequined suit and getting electrocuted half
way through a deep and meaningless recital *of Rhapsody in Blue.To be
followed of course by that unknown Gershwin work 'A Yorkshire Twerp in
Dawlish'



It's just not worth a reply......

On Tue, 10 Jan 2012 12:24:06 -0800, Dawlish wrote:



It's just not worth a reply......

And yet you replied, and quoted all of it.

Well done you.