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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#11
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In article ,
Graham writes: This may be a case of forecast something often enough, then when it eventually happens they can claim 100% accuracy? My thoughts exactly, we get plenty of snow warnings through a winter and most fall by the wayside but then one comes of and it's what a great forecast. People then soon forget about the previous warnings that produced little or nothing, bit like next week I feel, at least here ![]() Surely the purpose of warnings is to alert people to the /possibility/ that the event might occur in enough time for them to alter their plans if that seems advisable. If a warning was only issued when the probability was close to 100%, then you can bet that people would complain about the occasions when severe conditions occurred without sufficient warning. If you click on the + to show the "warning assessment" on the page that Col linked to, you will see that there is a matrix covering the range of possible likelihoods and impacts (much like is often done for risk assessments in the H&S field). Foe example, the risk of icy conditions in the south tonight is shown as being at the third of the four likelihood categories and the second of the four impact categories, which rates a yellow warning. -- John Hall "Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong." Oscar Wilde |
#12
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In article ,
willie eckerslike writes: If you look closely at the warnings areas, you will see that the great swathe covering S and SW England is for ice and not snow. Well, there's a novelty. Ice in January, at night. snip But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. -- John Hall "Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong." Oscar Wilde |
#13
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![]() "John Hall" wrote in message ... In article , willie eckerslike writes: If you look closely at the warnings areas, you will see that the great swathe covering S and SW England is for ice and not snow. Well, there's a novelty. Ice in January, at night. snip But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. Indeed John. Also not all roads are treated. (We don't have pavements up here). Tomorrow morning my B road will be treated but I have to be at my walk venue by 0930 and none of the roads en-route will be gritted. They will be *very* icy as everywhere here is still soaking wet and saturated with the rain still falling, so it will be a slow and careful drive. I'm used to driving on ice but many folk aren't. I'm also going to take a detour to avoid a road with a 200 foot drop if you skid off. That's the "white knuckle" road in wintry weather. Will -- |
#14
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On Sat, 12 Jan 2013 11:05:54 +0000
John Hall wrote: In article , willie eckerslike writes: If you look closely at the warnings areas, you will see that the great swathe covering S and SW England is for ice and not snow. Well, there's a novelty. Ice in January, at night. snip But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. I'd generally agree but I've got into a skid a couple of times on hoar frost. One was a four-wheeler but that was exacerbated by rear disks misbehaving. Quite an interesting experience, just sitting there with feet off the pedals and arms folded waiting for the car to stop spinning whilst hoping that the single-track country road would remain clear of other traffic. -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Time flies like an arrow but fruit flies like a banana. [Marx] |
#15
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On Saturday, January 12, 2013 11:05:54 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article , willie eckerslike writes: If you look closely at the warnings areas, you will see that the great swathe covering S and SW England is for ice and not snow. Well, there's a novelty. Ice in January, at night. snip But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. I know this, you know this - and I suspect that many millions of other people know this. Is it necessary to have blanket warnings for half the country, just to tell people what they know? Just so that the media can have a "field day" exaggerating everything to extremes? Sorry, I know that I am being a kind of Devils Advocate here, but do not the proliferation of ordinary warnings reduce the impact of severe warnings? |
#16
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On Sat, 12 Jan 2013 04:03:25 -0800 (PST), willie eckerslike
wrote: On Saturday, January 12, 2013 11:05:54 AM UTC, John Hall wrote: In article , But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. I know this, you know this - and I suspect that many millions of other people know this. Is it necessary to have blanket warnings for half the country, just to tell people what they know? Just so that the media can have a "field day" exaggerating everything to extremes? Sorry, I know that I am being a kind of Devils Advocate here, but do not the proliferation of ordinary warnings reduce the impact of severe warnings? Half the problem is that the yellow awareness 'warnings' aren't really warnings at all, they are just "keep an eye on tomorrow's forecast" bulletins. They should call them something less dramatic than warnings IMO, to lessen the "cry wolf" syndrome. -- Dave Fareham |
#17
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On Saturday, January 12, 2013 3:10:38 PM UTC, Dave Ludlow wrote:
On Sat, 12 Jan 2013 04:03:25 -0800 (PST), willie eckerslike Is it necessary to have blanket warnings for half the country, just to tell people what they know? Just so that the media can have a "field day" exaggerating everything to extremes? Sorry, I know that I am being a kind of Devils Advocate here, but do not the proliferation of ordinary warnings reduce the impact of severe warnings? Half the problem is that the yellow awareness 'warnings' aren't really warnings at all, they are just "keep an eye on tomorrow's forecast" bulletins. They should call them something less dramatic than warnings IMO, to lessen the "cry wolf" syndrome. The problem they would have with calling them 'advisories' or some other such name, is that no one would take any notice of them, and they would be accused of "nanny-ing" the public. Although from what I have witnessed on previous occasions, only a small percentage of the public take notice of even the severe weather warnings, and still try to carry on as normal in blizzards, black ice and/or freezing fog. In my day, for car travel in snow/ice conditions we were taught to remember the five S's - Soup, Shovel, Sack, Sleeping bag and above all Slow down. |
#18
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![]() "Dave Ludlow" wrote in message ... On Sat, 12 Jan 2013 04:03:25 -0800 (PST), willie eckerslike wrote: On Saturday, January 12, 2013 11:05:54 AM UTC, John Hall wrote: In article , But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. I know this, you know this - and I suspect that many millions of other people know this. Is it necessary to have blanket warnings for half the country, just to tell people what they know? Just so that the media can have a "field day" exaggerating everything to extremes? Sorry, I know that I am being a kind of Devils Advocate here, but do not the proliferation of ordinary warnings reduce the impact of severe warnings? Half the problem is that the yellow awareness 'warnings' aren't really warnings at all, they are just "keep an eye on tomorrow's forecast" bulletins. They should call them something less dramatic than warnings IMO, to lessen the "cry wolf" syndrome. I agree. Alerts would be better. But hey, I said so at the time they were being re-vamped but the powers that be go their own merry way usually :-( They justify it by saying that they have "stakeholder agreement", whatever that really means! Will -- |
#19
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On 12/01/2013 16:59, Eskimo Will wrote:
"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message ... On Sat, 12 Jan 2013 04:03:25 -0800 (PST), willie eckerslike wrote: On Saturday, January 12, 2013 11:05:54 AM UTC, John Hall wrote: In article , But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. I know this, you know this - and I suspect that many millions of other people know this. Is it necessary to have blanket warnings for half the country, just to tell people what they know? Just so that the media can have a "field day" exaggerating everything to extremes? Sorry, I know that I am being a kind of Devils Advocate here, but do not the proliferation of ordinary warnings reduce the impact of severe warnings? Half the problem is that the yellow awareness 'warnings' aren't really warnings at all, they are just "keep an eye on tomorrow's forecast" bulletins. They should call them something less dramatic than warnings IMO, to lessen the "cry wolf" syndrome. I agree. Alerts would be better. But hey, I said so at the time they were being re-vamped but the powers that be go their own merry way usually :-( They justify it by saying that they have "stakeholder agreement", whatever that really means! It means they want promotion and have to use certain terms a particular number of times a day. It is their way of showing membership of the clique. The workers can then play management bingo. The first person to spot a certain number of management speak words, wins the pot. -- Howard Neil |
#20
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![]() "Howard Neil" wrote in message ... On 12/01/2013 16:59, Eskimo Will wrote: "Dave Ludlow" wrote in message ... On Sat, 12 Jan 2013 04:03:25 -0800 (PST), willie eckerslike wrote: On Saturday, January 12, 2013 11:05:54 AM UTC, John Hall wrote: In article , But wet roads and pavements freezing can create very dangerous conditions. A frost after a dry day isn't much of a problem, but a frost following a wet one is. I know this, you know this - and I suspect that many millions of other people know this. Is it necessary to have blanket warnings for half the country, just to tell people what they know? Just so that the media can have a "field day" exaggerating everything to extremes? Sorry, I know that I am being a kind of Devils Advocate here, but do not the proliferation of ordinary warnings reduce the impact of severe warnings? Half the problem is that the yellow awareness 'warnings' aren't really warnings at all, they are just "keep an eye on tomorrow's forecast" bulletins. They should call them something less dramatic than warnings IMO, to lessen the "cry wolf" syndrome. I agree. Alerts would be better. But hey, I said so at the time they were being re-vamped but the powers that be go their own merry way usually :-( They justify it by saying that they have "stakeholder agreement", whatever that really means! It means they want promotion and have to use certain terms a particular number of times a day. It is their way of showing membership of the clique. The workers can then play management bingo. The first person to spot a certain number of management speak words, wins the pot. LOL so true in the modern Met Office. We have, for example: Stakeholder engagement Taking the checkpoint forward Getting ahead of the curve Going forward (mandatory - to be used several times in any document) Staff buy in Resource (meaning staff) utilisation Going the extra mile Morph seamlessly Aggregate vertically Stay at the bleeding edge Paradigm shift Run the topic up the flagpole to see who salutes it ..... etc etc etc All ******** of course! Will -- http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl) --------------------------------------------- |
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