With 80% probability.

**In 10 days time, on 24/01/13, the UK will be experiencing weather from the Atlantic and milder conditions than it will do over the next 4/5 days**

The models have taken the SSW into consideration and the output shows clearly that the flow at the surface, in this instance, will show very little influence from the SSW that has recently peaked.

First impressions would indicate that the effect is very similar to an SSW of a similar strength which occurred last January. That SSW had a similarly minimal effect on the surface flows at our longitude. As to why, I'll be interested to read the research papers later.

In article ,
Dawlish writes:
With 80% probability.

**In 10 days time, on 24/01/13, the UK will be experiencing weather
from the Atlantic and milder conditions than it will do over the
next 4/5 days**

Yes, the 00Z operational runs and ensembles do seem to show that.
Personally I wouldn't rate it as quite as high as 80%, though, given
that yesterday's 12Z ECMWF operational run was showing the Atlantic
being "fended off" at T+240, at least in the east of the country.

The models have taken the SSW into consideration and the output
shows clearly that the flow at the surface, in this instance, will
show very little influence from the SSW that has recently peaked.

It's too early to say that it has peaked. It may have done, but equally
it may not:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/10mb9065.gif

There is also still a question mark over how well the models
"understand" SSW.

First impressions would indicate that the effect is very similar to an
SSW of a similar strength which occurred last January.

It depends on whether you measure the strength by the maximum
temperature reached, in which case they are indeed similar, or by the
amount of warming, in which case the current SSW is considerably
stronger having come from a much lower starting point. I don't know
which factor is more important in determining how much effect there is
likely to be on the troposphere. Admittedly one would think that it
would be the former, but the fact that a paper that Martin Rowley linked
to used "delta-T" - i.e. the increase in temperature - as its measure
suggests that there might be some reason for using the latter. The
current SSW is quite impressive in having taken the 10hPa temperature
from close to the lowest on record to such a high value.

That SSW had a similarly minimal effect on the surface flows at
our longitude.

It was a potent enough effect to make the first half of February
decidedly cold in my part of SE England, with two substantial snowfalls.
--
John Hall

"Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong."
Oscar Wilde

another bull**** wonder forecast

cold spell will have lasted almost 2 weeks
winds mostly from easterly direction

mild my arse

you forgot to factor in SSW didnt you, try harder next time

PS well done Will, UKMO and SSW Forecasts




On Monday, 14 January 2013 06:59:53 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
With 80% probability.



**In 10 days time, on 24/01/13, the UK will be experiencing weather from the Atlantic and milder conditions than it will do over the next 4/5 days**



The models have taken the SSW into consideration and the output shows clearly that the flow at the surface, in this instance, will show very little influence from the SSW that has recently peaked.



First impressions would indicate that the effect is very similar to an SSW of a similar strength which occurred last January. That SSW had a similarly minimal effect on the surface flows at our longitude. As to why, I'll be interested to read the research papers later.

On Tuesday, January 22, 2013 9:46:50 PM UTC, wrote:
another bull**** wonder forecast



cold spell will have lasted almost 2 weeks

winds mostly from easterly direction



mild my arse


Oh I dont know, you seem to be good at choosing whose to lick.




you forgot to factor in SSW didnt you, try harder next time



PS well done Will, UKMO and SSW Forecasts


See what I mean?

Do provide us with the benefit of your own thoughts on the synoptic situation, if you dare.

Only hypocrites insist others must try harder, when they have not even attempted to try themselves.

Or are you content to do nothing positive and just sit in critical judgement on everyone else?

On 22/01/13 21:46, wrote:
another bull**** wonder forecast

cold spell will have lasted almost 2 weeks
winds mostly from easterly direction

mild my arse

you forgot to factor in SSW didnt you, try harder next time

PS well done Will, UKMO and SSW Forecasts



Yes well done to Will and the UKMO but if the latest forecasts are to be
believed then Dawlish was only a couple of days too early. Looking
likely the cold spell will be over on Saturday with temperatures near
average and a more Atlantic-dominated regime.



On Monday, 14 January 2013 06:59:53 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
With 80% probability.



**In 10 days time, on 24/01/13, the UK will be experiencing weather from the Atlantic and milder conditions than it will do over the next 4/5 days**



The models have taken the SSW into consideration and the output shows clearly that the flow at the surface, in this instance, will show very little influence from the SSW that has recently peaked.



First impressions would indicate that the effect is very similar to an SSW of a similar strength which occurred last January. That SSW had a similarly minimal effect on the surface flows at our longitude. As to why, I'll be interested to read the research papers later.

brown tongue alert

On Tuesday, 22 January 2013 22:03:09 UTC, willie eckerslike wrote:

Oh I dont know, you seem to be good at choosing whose to lick.

On Monday, 14 January 2013 06:59:53 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
With 80% probability.



**In 10 days time, on 24/01/13, the UK will be experiencing weather from the Atlantic and milder conditions than it will do over the next 4/5 days**



The models have taken the SSW into consideration and the output shows clearly that the flow at the surface, in this instance, will show very little influence from the SSW that has recently peaked.



First impressions would indicate that the effect is very similar to an SSW of a similar strength which occurred last January. That SSW had a similarly minimal effect on the surface flows at our longitude. As to why, I'll be interested to read the research papers later.

One weak wanderer

On Monday, January 14, 2013 6:59:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
With 80% probability.



**In 10 days time, on 24/01/13, the UK will be experiencing weather from the Atlantic and milder conditions than it will do over the next 4/5 days**



The models have taken the SSW into consideration and the output shows clearly that the flow at the surface, in this instance, will show very little influence from the SSW that has recently peaked.



First impressions would indicate that the effect is very similar to an SSW of a similar strength which occurred last January. That SSW had a similarly minimal effect on the surface flows at our longitude. As to why, I'll be interested to read the research papers later.

Just 36 hours too early, so incorrect, but pretty good seeing the pattern change to Atlantic weather when so much hype was flying around about the cold spell continuing. I do believe someone not far from here called me "foolish" for even thinking of forecasting such a thing and said several times in the days following the 14th that predicting more than 5 days in advance ATM was useless.

It wasn't. The models showed this change 10 days ago, but it will actually come 36 hours later than the date that the models were then agreeing on.

yes a total balls up of a forecast.
so what happened the one week, its been two weeks.

factor in science and ssw next time, and not the school of ladbrokes.

will 11, dullish 0



On Thursday, 24 January 2013 21:40:32 UTC, Dawlish wrote:


Just 36 hours too early, so incorrect,

On Thursday, 24 January 2013 22:17:02 UTC, wrote:
yes a total balls up of a forecast.
so what happened the one week, its been two weeks.
factor in science and ssw next time, and not the school of ladbrokes.
will 11, dullish 0

You really are a ****** piece of ****, aren't you?