**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back this month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.

One could ask *why*.

On Tuesday, 22 January 2013 21:02:00 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back this month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.



One could ask *why*.

why? you last forecast was crap
anything else?

**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back this
month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will be under
the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.

Not according to the 'Genius' known as St Piers, the Atlantic will be kept
at bay


Graham

On Tuesday, January 22, 2013 9:48:41 PM UTC, wrote:
On Tuesday, 22 January 2013 21:02:00 UTC, Dawlish wrote:

**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back this month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.







One could ask *why*.



why? you last forecast was crap

anything else?

^^^^^^^^^^Cyber bully alert^^^^^^^^^^^^

On 22/01/13 21:02, Dawlish wrote:
**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back this month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.

One could ask *why*.

Climatology. :-)

^^^^^^^^^^Cyber ****** alert^^^^^^^^^^^^

On Tuesday, 22 January 2013 22:07:09 UTC, willie eckerslike wrote:



^^^^^^^^^^Cyber bully alert^^^^^^^^^^^^

On Tuesday, 22 January 2013 22:08:44 UTC, Adam Lea wrote:
On 22/01/13 21:02, Dawlish wrote:

**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back this month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.



One could ask *why*.



Climatology. :-)

Indeed. I would imagine on any random day there is a good chance you are going to have air that has originated from the Atlantic.

On Tuesday, 22 January 2013 21:02:00 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back this month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will be under the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.



One could ask *why*.

It's a brave woman or man that can predict when the air mass comes from the North or especially the East in winter. Any ****, any fool and any moron can predict 80% probability, we can all do that; however the real key, the real forecaster and the real deal knows and can predict that 20% option.

Paul you really don't get it, do you? I remember in the sixties my old geography teacher drumming into us that three out of every five days that the wind would blow from a westerly direction. So to repeat that like a demented parrot on speed does not make anyone a skilled forecaster. Go ahead and revel in your -60 % plus, but that does not make you or anyone a forecaster-don't you get it?

On Tuesday, January 22, 2013 11:30:56 PM UTC, Lawrence13 wrote:


Paul you really don't get it, do you? I remember in the sixties my old geography teacher drumming into us that three out of every five days that the wind would blow from a westerly direction. So to repeat that like a demented parrot on speed does not make anyone a skilled forecaster. Go ahead and revel in your -60 % plus, but that does not make you or anyone a forecaster-don't you get it?

Maybe he just looked at GFS? It has been predicting a strong SW'ly becoming established over the weekend for many days now. The thaw is somewhat slower reaching E England of course, but that is to be expected.

What is far more worrying, given the forecast mobility during that period, is the addition of large quantities of snowmelt to the predicted rainfall.

Renewed flooding looks like being the main problem.

Lawrence13 wrote:
On Tuesday, 22 January 2013 21:02:00 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**The easterlies and colder than average weather, is not coming back
this month after it disappears this weekend. On 1st Feb, the UK will
be under the influence of an Atlantic airflow.** 80%+ probability.



One could ask *why*.

It's a brave woman or man that can predict when the air mass comes
from the North or especially the East in winter. Any ****, any fool
and any moron can predict 80% probability, we can all do that;
however the real key, the real forecaster and the real deal knows and
can predict that 20% option.

Paul you really don't get it, do you? I remember in the sixties my
old geography teacher drumming into us that three out of every five
days that the wind would blow from a westerly direction. So to repeat
that like a demented parrot on speed does not make anyone a skilled
forecaster. Go ahead and revel in your -60 % plus, but that does not
make you or anyone a forecaster-don't you get it?

What he does is demonstrate model consistency, or more likely lack of it,
given the very few forecasts he actually makes to get that magic 80%
sucess rate.
Now that's an interesting exercise in itself, but it's not proper
forecasting.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl