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| uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
January 28th 13, 07:16 PM
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over the UK.For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
Forecast **Title says it all really**
80% probability. |
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#2
February 4th 13, 05:12 AM
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over theUK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. Looking spot on at the moment. The probability is close to 100% now. |
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#3
February 4th 13, 08:58 AM
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over theUK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
On Feb 4, 6:12*am, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. Looking spot on at the moment. The probability is close to 100% now. Im impressed - youve been using the WeatherAction charts havent you? Go on admit it I wont tell |
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#4
February 4th 13, 10:02 AM
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow overthe UK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
Jim Cannon wrote:
On Feb 4, 6:12 am, Dawlish wrote: On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. Looking spot on at the moment. The probability is close to 100% now. Im impressed - youve been using the WeatherAction charts havent you? Go on admit it I wont tell ------------------------------------ Except last week's one which Piers had to rip up as it proved to be rubbish! |
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#5
February 4th 13, 06:41 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over the UK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
In article
, Jim Cannon writes: On Feb 4, 6:12*am, Dawlish wrote: On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. Looking spot on at the moment. The probability is close to 100% now. Im impressed - youve been using the WeatherAction charts havent you? Go on admit it I wont tell You really do believe that no one could possibly make a correct forecast ten days in advance without stealing it from Piers, don't you? There's no mystery about Dawlish's methodology; he's explained it here often enough. He looks at the publicly available charts from the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, and makes a forecast when there has been sufficient consistency over a number of consecutive runs. -- John Hall "Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong." Oscar Wilde |
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#6
February 4th 13, 07:39 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over the UK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
"John Hall" wrote in message ... In article , Jim Cannon writes: On Feb 4, 6:12 am, Dawlish wrote: On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. Looking spot on at the moment. The probability is close to 100% now. Im impressed - youve been using the WeatherAction charts havent you? Go on admit it I wont tell You really do believe that no one could possibly make a correct forecast ten days in advance without stealing it from Piers, don't you? There's no mystery about Dawlish's methodology; he's explained it here often enough. He looks at the publicly available charts from the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, and makes a forecast when there has been sufficient consistency over a number of consecutive runs. Yes it's a success for NWP and the modellers who develop the models. Nothing to do with sun spots or newt's entrails. Will -- |
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#7
February 4th 13, 09:43 PM
posted to uk.sci.weather
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yawn
or betting shops.
On Monday, 4 February 2013 20:39:17 UTC, wrote: "John Hall" wrote in message ... In article , Jim Cannon writes: On Feb 4, 6:12 am, Dawlish wrote: On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. Looking spot on at the moment. The probability is close to 100% now. Im impressed - youve been using the WeatherAction charts havent you? Go on admit it I wont tell You really do believe that no one could possibly make a correct forecast ten days in advance without stealing it from Piers, don't you? There's no mystery about Dawlish's methodology; he's explained it here often enough. He looks at the publicly available charts from the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF models, and makes a forecast when there has been sufficient consistency over a number of consecutive runs. Yes it's a success for NWP and the modellers who develop the models. Nothing to do with sun spots or newt's entrails. Will -- |
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#8
February 7th 13, 08:17 AM
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over theUK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. A good forecast from 10 days out. Maybe one of our brighter members would like to attempt a forecast 10 days from today. I think the probability of one situation or another (e.g. Atlantic, or a continued colder, NW flow, or something else) has a probability of much less than 80% of achieving outcome.. |
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#9
February 8th 13, 06:30 PM
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over theUK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
On Thursday, February 7, 2013 9:17:06 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. A good forecast from 10 days out. Maybe one of our brighter members would like to attempt a forecast 10 days from today. I think the probability of one situation or another (e.g. Atlantic, or a continued colder, NW flow, or something else) has a probability of much less than 80% of achieving outcome. Still very difficult. The difference between the 12z gfs and the 12z ECM could hardly be more stark. |
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#10
February 11th 13, 09:35 AM
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Colder. Blocking in the Atlantic leading to a NW/N flow over theUK. For 7th Feb (at 10 days from today).
On Friday, February 8, 2013 7:30:07 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, February 7, 2013 9:17:06 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote: On Monday, January 28, 2013 8:16:33 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote: Forecast **Title says it all really** 80% probability. A good forecast from 10 days out. Maybe one of our brighter members would like to attempt a forecast 10 days from today. I think the probability of one situation or another (e.g. Atlantic, or a continued colder, NW flow, or something else) has a probability of much less than 80% of achieving outcome. Still very difficult. The difference between the 12z gfs and the 12z ECM could hardly be more stark. Still a gulf between the ECM and the gfs at T240+. The Meto appear to be going with something closer to the ECM solution of high pressure with frosty nights and perhaps an easterly drift, but the European high and a SW flow shown by the gfs would promise an early spring in the south. |
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