No one warned Capt Scott and chums how cold it would be walking to the South Pole.
Met Office of his day has got a lot to answer for.

Adam Lea wrote:

On 17/03/13 20:11, Norman wrote:
Paul wrote:

Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met
Office by the county council.

Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in the
overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first alerted
them.

He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop a
number of crashes across the county.

The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings
were put in place in the early hours.


FULL STORY:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820



Despite all the publicity hype from forecast providers accurate forecasting
when it really matters is still fiendishly difficult. Our weather is nearly
impossible to forecast reliably in the level of detail that's really needed
in situations like the one in Oxfordshire. A bit more honesty from the
forecast providers as to the real capability might help to reduce
expectations to a more realistic level.


I also wonder whether perhaps some responsibility should be applied to
drivers to drive in a manner appropriate to the conditions.


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to make
them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met Office at
0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow could
start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon. Accumulations of
10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak District)
was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or two of the sun
till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but dry until a spit or
two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be much more different from
what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of muttering around the village
about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then the
page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than one that
is so seriously in error.

*****rant mode off!!!*****

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

On 18/03/2013 15:53, Norman wrote:
Adam Lea wrote:

On 17/03/13 20:11, Norman wrote:
Paul wrote:

Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met
Office by the county council.

Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in the
overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first alerted
them.

He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop a
number of crashes across the county.

The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings
were put in place in the early hours.


FULL STORY:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820



Despite all the publicity hype from forecast providers accurate forecasting
when it really matters is still fiendishly difficult. Our weather is nearly
impossible to forecast reliably in the level of detail that's really needed
in situations like the one in Oxfordshire. A bit more honesty from the
forecast providers as to the real capability might help to reduce
expectations to a more realistic level.


I also wonder whether perhaps some responsibility should be applied to
drivers to drive in a manner appropriate to the conditions.


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to make
them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met Office at
0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow could
start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon. Accumulations of
10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak District)
was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or two of the sun
till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but dry until a spit or
two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be much more different from
what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of muttering around the village
about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then the
page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than one that
is so seriously in error.

*****rant mode off!!!*****


You could, perhaps, produce your own forecast. I'm sure it would be popular.


--
Howard Neil

Howard Neil wrote:

On 18/03/2013 15:53, Norman wrote:
Adam Lea wrote:

On 17/03/13 20:11, Norman wrote:
Paul wrote:

Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met
Office by the county council.

Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in
the overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first
alerted them.

He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop
a number of crashes across the county.

The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings
were put in place in the early hours.


FULL STORY:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820



Despite all the publicity hype from forecast providers accurate
forecasting when it really matters is still fiendishly difficult. Our
weather is nearly impossible to forecast reliably in the level of
detail that's really needed in situations like the one in Oxfordshire.
A bit more honesty from the forecast providers as to the real
capability might help to reduce expectations to a more realistic level.


I also wonder whether perhaps some responsibility should be applied to
drivers to drive in a manner appropriate to the conditions.


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to
make them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met
Office at 0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow
could start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon.
Accumulations of 10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak
District) was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or
two of the sun till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but
dry until a spit or two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be
much more different from what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of
muttering around the village about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then
the page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than
one that is so seriously in error.

*****rant mode off!!!*****


You could, perhaps, produce your own forecast. I'm sure it would be popular.

It would, indeed, Howard but I've got plenty of other things to keep me busy.
I've got my wife well trained, though. She doesn't go out without having a look
at the radar and she also usually checks the temperature on the AWS. I'm not
convinced that trying to do all of the forecasting remotely from Exeter is a
great success. It might make economic sense but that's another matter
altogether.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.

"Norman" wrote in message
...


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to
make
them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met Office
at
0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow
could
start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon. Accumulations of
10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak
District)
was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or two of the
sun
till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but dry until a
spit or
two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be much more different
from
what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of muttering around the
village
about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then
the
page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than one
that
is so seriously in error.


Norman, that forecast is never amended. Also it is quite difficult to take
it off as it involves the IT guys and *process*, the forecasters have no
control over it.

What we need is a half-decent public nowcasting service. It's possible, but
there is nobody that will pay for it, and no money means no service. The age
of public service for the public good is dead and buried :-(

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

"Norman" wrote in message
...
It would, indeed, Howard but I've got plenty of other things to keep me
busy.
I've got my wife well trained, though. She doesn't go out without having a
look
at the radar and she also usually checks the temperature on the AWS. I'm
not
convinced that trying to do all of the forecasting remotely from Exeter is
a
great success. It might make economic sense but that's another matter
altogether.

The whole reason Weather Centres and local forecast offices were shut in
2005 and beyond was purely and simply to save money. There was no science
justification at all. A case was made that expertise would develop in Exeter
as staff moved in from outside, but the experienced staff just left or
retired. And how do you know how to forecast for remote places like the Peak
District if you are in the SW and perhaps never even been there and
experienced the weather. It becomes an academic exercise. I got into trouble
arguing against the closures at the time, I even challenged a director to a
forecasting competition. The idea was that I would produce a daily forecast
for dartmoor and compare it with a centrally produced one largely based on
NWP. The forecasts would be scored independently. He didn't want to know,
they were going to centralise to save money and that was that :-( We are now
reaping the "harvest".

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On 18/03/2013 16:22, Norman wrote:
Howard Neil wrote:

On 18/03/2013 15:53, Norman wrote:
Adam Lea wrote:

On 17/03/13 20:11, Norman wrote:
Paul wrote:

Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met
Office by the county council.

Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in
the overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first
alerted them.

He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop
a number of crashes across the county.

The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings
were put in place in the early hours.


FULL STORY:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820



Despite all the publicity hype from forecast providers accurate
forecasting when it really matters is still fiendishly difficult. Our
weather is nearly impossible to forecast reliably in the level of
detail that's really needed in situations like the one in Oxfordshire.
A bit more honesty from the forecast providers as to the real
capability might help to reduce expectations to a more realistic level.


I also wonder whether perhaps some responsibility should be applied to
drivers to drive in a manner appropriate to the conditions.


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to
make them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met
Office at 0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow
could start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon.
Accumulations of 10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

The actual weather here (at about the geographical centre of the Peak
District) was freezing fog till mid morning then bright with a glimpse or
two of the sun till early afternoon. Becoming overcast this afternoon but
dry until a spit or two of drizzle in the past hour. It could hardly be
much more different from what was forecast. There has been quite a bit of
muttering around the village about the poor quality of weather forecasting.

Perhaps worst of all is that the current Peak District forecast on the Met
Office website is still what I have quoted above. That is really not good
enough. By 0900 it was pretty obvious that the weather was evolving very
differently from what was forecast. If there wasn't time to amend it then
the page should have been deleted. No forecast at all is a lot better than
one that is so seriously in error.

*****rant mode off!!!*****


You could, perhaps, produce your own forecast. I'm sure it would be popular.

It would, indeed, Howard but I've got plenty of other things to keep me busy.
I've got my wife well trained, though. She doesn't go out without having a look
at the radar and she also usually checks the temperature on the AWS. I'm not
convinced that trying to do all of the forecasting remotely from Exeter is a
great success. It might make economic sense but that's another matter
altogether.


Yes, I must admit that mine takes an hour or two out of my day every
morning. Also, once you start, it is not something that you can have a
break from; it has to be a regular forecast. It is, however, very
satisfying.

--
Howard Neil

On Sunday, 17 March 2013 16:02:29 UTC, Paul wrote:
Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met Office by the county council. Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in the overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first alerted them. He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop a number of crashes across the county. The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings were put in place in the early hours. FULL STORY: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820 -- Regards, Paul

On Mon, 18 Mar 2013 02:20:21 -0700 (PDT), Desperate Dan
wrote:

On Monday, March 18, 2013 7:36:29 AM UTC, wrote:
"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message

...

On Sun, 17 Mar 2013 23:47:09 +0000, jbm wrote:
On 17/03/2013 16:02, Paul wrote:
Unexpected snow across Oxfordshire has led to criticism of the Met
Office by the county council.
Deputy leader councillor Rodney Rose said there were no warnings in the
overnight forecast and it was their own road sensors which first alerted
them.
He said gritters were eventually sent out but it was too late to stop a
number of crashes across the county.
The Met Office said the situation was "finely balanced" and warnings
were put in place in the early hours.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england...shire-21821820

Well, that's a new one for the Office Speak Dictionary.

Finely balanced = We haven't got a ****ing clue.

If the responsible officers at the Oxfordshire Council could have been
arsed to actually watch the BBC TV weather forecasts on Saturday
evening instead of waiting for yellow alerts to be sent to them, they
would have known that snow was **in the forecast** for the South
Midlands. If ** I ** knew on Saturday evening that it might snow
there in the early morning, so should they have known, they are paid
to keep an eye on it!
Yes the Met Office should have warned them earlier but FFS, use your
noggins, Council officials, and watch the bloody forecasts from time
to time!!

Well said Dave. But it is the culture now "why weren't we warned" instead of
"right I'm going to get on with it".

Will

You've never worked with councils and warnings then! The guy who says
"I'm going to get on with it", will then have to justify his actions having spent £x
on salt/grit and £y on drivers' overtime etc. If he gets it right he's a hero, but
if he gets it wrong he's on the carpet or worse. I'm willing to bet there's a
council SOP re this type of situation. There's more to this story than meets
the eye. Forecasters are normally overly keen to issue warnings for obvious
reasons. Any "finely balanced" situation would see the forecaster err on the
cautious side.

I agree, there's something missing from this story. Rain turning to
snow on the northern edge (in S England) late in the night was clearly
shown on the evening forecast graphics for 6 am onwards, and the
forecaster (Nick Miller) said watch out for icy patches as
temperatures dip, while waving his hand over... wait for it...
Oxfordshire!

So I too don't understand why a warning wasn't sent out to Councils
until 3 am - assuming that is in fact what happened. But a warning to
subscribing Councils and a public yellow warning aren't necessarily
the same thing.

--
Dave
Fareham

On Mon, 18 Mar 2013 16:27:55 -0000, "Eskimo Will"
wrote:


"Norman" wrote in message
...


Today has turned out to be a very good example of the great difficulty in
producing reliable forecasts with the level of precision that's needed to
make
them useful. The Peak District forecast for today issued by the Met Office
at
0720 this morning reads

-----------------------------------------------------------
Cloudy and cold with outbreaks of sleet and snow quickly arriving from the
north this morning, then persisting for much of the day. Sleet and snow
could
start quite heavy then gradually ease off this afternoon. Accumulations of
10-15 cm are possible over the highest ground.
-----------------------------------------------------------

Norman, that forecast is never amended. Also it is quite difficult to take
it off as it involves the IT guys and *process*, the forecasters have no
control over it.

There is NO technical reason why named forecasters cannot easily*and
safely* be provided with the means at least to remove an erroneous
forecast page - and preferably to also add a rider or amend it.

All Internet Content Management Systems (which the Met Office and
nearly everyone else these days use, or SHOULD be using - I even
created and run one myself!) provide several levels of control. These
range from Admin of the entire site down to individual authors with
the power *only* to amend or "Unpublish" a single page. All the Met
Office web Admin needs to do is set up an access layer for named
individuals, who will have their own password, and just need to learn
how to tick or untick a "PUBLISHED" box. It's as simple as that, and
of course, you know this!

Heads need knocking together down there, but who can do it?

--
Dave
Fareham