On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:

Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave* headlines on the way

gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first North African plume of the year.

It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.

As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I don't mind. *))

(He says, crossing his fingers!)

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:

Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if
the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave*
headlines on the way

gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so
interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first
North African plume of the year.

It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on
this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE
and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.

As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the
Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I
don't mind. *))

(He says, crossing his fingers!)

And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex!

Rob

On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:



Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if

the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave*

headlines on the way



gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so

interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first

North African plume of the year.



It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on

this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE

and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.



As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the

Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I

don't mind. *))



(He says, crossing his fingers!)



And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex!



Rob

*)) Crossed fingers Rob!

It's quite amazing how this post has come about, after the model shifting over the past 5 days, but, as the models presently stand, somewhere in the SE could see 30C next Wed (Gravesend??) and there could be quite a thundery breakdown following the short-lived heat.

On Sunday, June 16, 2013 12:36:46 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:







Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if



the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave*



headlines on the way







gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so



interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first



North African plume of the year.







It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on



this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE



and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.







As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the



Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I



don't mind. *))







(He says, crossing his fingers!)







And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex!







Rob



*)) Crossed fingers Rob!



It's quite amazing how this post has come about, after the model shifting over the past 5 days, but, as the models presently stand, somewhere in the SE could see 30C next Wed (Gravesend??) and there could be quite a thundery breakdown following the short-lived heat.

And now...................Coo! Summer at only 5/6 days on both models. That turnaround, from hopelessly unsettled ad infinitum, has happened in under 36 hours and at well under 10 days. I don't really expect that to change on this evening's runs.

On Thu, 20 Jun 2013 09:12:13 -0700, Dawlish wrote:

On Sunday, June 16, 2013 12:36:46 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:







Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I
wonder if



the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer
heatwave*



headlines on the way







gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It
is so



interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the
first



North African plume of the year.







It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and
"Ah's" on



this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into
the SE



and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.







As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on
the



Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure,
I



don't mind. *))







(He says, crossing his fingers!)







And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West
Sussex!







Rob



*)) Crossed fingers Rob!


It's quite amazing how this post has come about, after the model
shifting over the past 5 days, but, as the models presently stand,
somewhere in the SE could see 30C next Wed (Gravesend??) and there
could be quite a thundery breakdown following the short-lived heat.

And now...................Coo! Summer at only 5/6 days on both models.
That turnaround, from hopelessly unsettled ad infinitum, has happened in
under 36 hours and at well under 10 days. I don't really expect that to
change on this evening's runs.

Oh, good.

On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:



Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if

the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave*

headlines on the way



gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so

interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first

North African plume of the year.



It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on

this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE

and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.



As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the

Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I

don't mind. *))



(He says, crossing his fingers!)



And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex!



Rob

Hope it was good. Ascot saw a couple of blustery showers blow through and we had to hang onto the gazebo!

Still the (rather unexpected and welcome) model change is upon us. No exceptional warmth, but a dry week and less windy in prospect for many. However, T+240 looks pretty dire ATM.

On Monday, June 24, 2013 7:58:00 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message



...



On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:







Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if



the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave*



headlines on the way







gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so



interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first



North African plume of the year.







It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on



this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE



and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.







As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the



Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I



don't mind. *))







(He says, crossing his fingers!)







And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex!







Rob



Hope it was good. Ascot saw a couple of blustery showers blow through and we had to hang onto the gazebo!



Still the (rather unexpected and welcome) model change is upon us. No exceptional warmth, but a dry week and less windy in prospect for many. However, T+240 looks pretty dire ATM.

However, at T+240 tonight - the promise of real summer. See if it still there in 24 hours time.

On Tue, 25 Jun 2013 13:26:04 -0700, Dawlish wrote:


On Monday, June 24, 2013 7:58:00 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote:


"Dawlish" wrote in message




...




On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:




On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:








Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I

wonder if




the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer

heatwave*




headlines on the way








gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It

is so




interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the

first




North African plume of the year.








It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and

"Ah's" on




this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into

the SE



and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms.








As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on

the




Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure,

I




don't mind. *))








(He says, crossing his fingers!)








And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West

Sussex!








Rob




Hope it was good. Ascot saw a couple of blustery showers blow through

and we had to hang onto the gazebo!




Still the (rather unexpected and welcome) model change is upon us. No

exceptional warmth, but a dry week and less windy in prospect for many.

However, T+240 looks pretty dire ATM.

However, at T+240 tonight - the promise of real summer. See if it still
there in 24 hours time.

Oh, good.

On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 9:26:04 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, June 24, 2013 7:58:00 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote: Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave* headlines on the way gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first North African plume of the year. It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms. As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I don't mind. *)) (He says, crossing his fingers!) And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex! Rob Hope it was good. Ascot saw a couple of blustery showers blow through and we had to hang onto the gazebo! Still the (rather unexpected and welcome) model change is upon us. No exceptional warmth, but a dry week and less windy in prospect for many. However, T+240 looks pretty dire ATM. However, at T+240 tonight - the promise of real summer. See if it still there in 24 hours time.

The Azores high linking to the Russian high. A 1995-style summer. Interesting...

On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 10:38:43 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote:
On Tuesday, June 25, 2013 9:26:04 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Monday, June 24, 2013 7:58:00 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Sunday, June 16, 2013 10:50:29 AM UTC+1, BK wrote: "Dawlish" wrote in message ... On Friday, June 14, 2013 7:39:22 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote: On Thursday, June 13, 2013 12:44:44 PM UTC+1, Scott W wrote: Looks like it will turn very hot in Hungary - high 30Cs. I wonder if the region to the east is in for a repeat of 2010 - *killer heatwave* headlines on the way gfs 12z would have us believe that the heat will clip the SE. It is so interesting watching the models struggling with the path of the first North African plume of the year. It really has been fascinating to watch the model "Ummms" and "Ah's" on this one. Confidence from both models that the heat will spill into the SE and perhaps, along with it, some beefy thunderstorms. As long as it's all over and done with quickly and Royal Ascot on the Saturday is bathed in sunshine from a brief ridge of high pressure, I don't mind. *)) (He says, crossing his fingers!) And for my daughters wedding on Saturday in a hopefully sunny West Sussex! Rob Hope it was good. Ascot saw a couple of blustery showers blow through and we had to hang onto the gazebo! Still the (rather unexpected and welcome) model change is upon us. No exceptional warmth, but a dry week and less windy in prospect for many. However, T+240 looks pretty dire ATM. However, at T+240 tonight - the promise of real summer. See if it still there in 24 hours time.

The Azores high linking to the Russian high. A 1995-style summer. Interesting...

That's more runs with both models pointing to a similar outcome. See if this is there this evening and if we see consistency, summer will be on its way - and if this set-up establishes itself, as you say Scott, persistence could lead to a n extended warm spell.

Lots of "ifs", but I think we deserve a decent summer!