Hi

The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously follow if this scenario pans out...

Bruce.

On Fri, 3 Jan 2014 02:01:17 -0800 (PST), exmetman
wrote:

Hi

The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously follow if this scenario pans out...

Bruce.

Bruce - yes had noticed this as early as T+180 on the FNMOC loop: a
distinct shift seems imminent! Until it is clearer I dont expect any
official comment - two or three long distance comments already evident
on some of the many weather comments clips I have seen on the web

Regards

Robin

On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:01:17 AM UTC, exmetman wrote:
Hi



The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously follow if this scenario pans out...



Bruce.

Whatever is shown at T+312, Bruce, is not to be taken with any belief that it will happen! Not saying that you are here; I realise it is just a comment.

It's not, however, the first time the far reaches of the gfs have shown something different; the ECM has shown something different at T+240 on a couple of round, but that's all. The gfs has actually been more consistent and more accurate at 10 days, throughout the zonal spell, not once showing anything different to Atlantic, zonal weather since the onset of this spell around Dec 11th. Maybe at 12 days it is picking up on something, but I doubt it.

On Fri, 3 Jan 2014 02:01:17 -0800 (PST)
exmetman wrote:

Hi

The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at
T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly
unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high
pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being
pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously
follow if this scenario pans out...



Again? Will it be 2nd time lucky for an easterly forecast from GFS this
winter?

Since Christmas Eve, Matt Hugo has been pointing out that ECMWF was
hinting at a splitting of the stratospheric vortex - not an SSW - and
that this might produce a change of type.


--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. Mail: 'newsman' not 'newsboy'.
'Do your bit for climate change this holiday period by restricting your
intake at festive mealtimes to four Brussels sprouts or less.'
@3WhitehallPlace

On Friday, January 3, 2014 10:01:17 AM UTC, exmetman wrote:
Hi



The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously follow if this scenario pans out...



Bruce.

2 operational runs with something different from the gfs. The run was an outlier, again, at 10 days+, though it is not completely alone. See what the other models come up with this evening.

I think I should have titled this post "Not to be opened till the 16th of January" because only time will tell.

In article 20140103111029.77cd8e04@home-1,
Graham P Davis writes:
On Fri, 3 Jan 2014 02:01:17 -0800 (PST)
exmetman wrote:

Hi

The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at
T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly
unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high
pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being
pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously
follow if this scenario pans out...



Again? Will it be 2nd time lucky for an easterly forecast from GFS this
winter?

Since Christmas Eve, Matt Hugo has been pointing out that ECMWF was
hinting at a splitting of the stratospheric vortex - not an SSW - and
that this might produce a change of type.



I don't normally put much faith out as far as T+312 - or indeed in the
06Z and 18Z GFS runs, which I understand don't have such a full data set
as the 00Z and 12Z - but for once the 06Z is consistent with the 00Z in
what it's showing. As early as T+192 the zonal train is shown as slowing
down. However beyond T+240 the operational run is very much towards the
cold end of the ensemble.

Meanwhile the SSW continues, but is not yet a major featu

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...e/10mb9065.gif
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Friday, January 3, 2014 1:39:54 PM UTC, exmetman wrote:
I think I should have titled this post "Not to be opened till the 16th of January" because only time will tell.

It wasn't any kind of forecast, surely, bruce! It was just a model commentary.

In article ,
John Hall writes:
In article 20140103111029.77cd8e04@home-1,
Graham P Davis writes:
On Fri, 3 Jan 2014 02:01:17 -0800 (PST)
exmetman wrote:

Hi

The latest midnight run of the GFS model shows the first signs at
T+312 (16 January) of a change in type from the current seemingly
unending cyclonic SWl'y to a more of a blocked E'ly with high
pressure building to the NE of Iceland and low pressure belt being
pushed further south into central France. Colder air will obviously
follow if this scenario pans out...



Again? Will it be 2nd time lucky for an easterly forecast from GFS this
winter?

Since Christmas Eve, Matt Hugo has been pointing out that ECMWF was
hinting at a splitting of the stratospheric vortex - not an SSW - and
that this might produce a change of type.



I don't normally put much faith out as far as T+312 - or indeed in the
06Z and 18Z GFS runs, which I understand don't have such a full data set
as the 00Z and 12Z - but for once the 06Z is consistent with the 00Z in
what it's showing. As early as T+192 the zonal train is shown as slowing
down. However beyond T+240 the operational run is very much towards the
cold end of the ensemble.
snip

The operational 12Z GFS run has reverted to keeping things zonal, which
doesn't come as a great surprise.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

You're correct more wishful thinking on my part!

We did spend Christmas in Norway where we got plenty of snow.

I'm now thinking of emigrating because the summers are good as well�