On Monday, February 17, 2014 7:22:53 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Not a forecast I enjoy making, but there's agreement and consistency amongst the models.



**On Thursday, 27th February, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Windy and wet weather will be interspersed with drier days, in ridges of high pressure. Snow will be generally confined to hills, falling mainly in the lee of depressions.**



Typical winter zonal weather. More wind and wet to the end of Feb. Oh joy!

If, by your own admission, you cannot predict what the weather will be like at T+240 how can you claim to have issued a forecast, let alone one that is of any use. All you appear to have said is that the Atlantic will be influencing our weather on the 27th February - not a particularly skillful prediction since about 75% of a normal winter can be categorised as a mobile westerly type.

Dick Lovett

On Tuesday, February 18, 2014 3:56:44 PM UTC, Dick wrote:
On Monday, February 17, 2014 7:22:53 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Not a forecast I enjoy making, but there's agreement and consistency amongst the models.







**On Thursday, 27th February, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Windy and wet weather will be interspersed with drier days, in ridges of high pressure. Snow will be generally confined to hills, falling mainly in the lee of depressions.**







Typical winter zonal weather. More wind and wet to the end of Feb. Oh joy!



If, by your own admission, you cannot predict what the weather will be like at T+240 how can you claim to have issued a forecast, let alone one that is of any use. All you appear to have said is that the Atlantic will be influencing our weather on the 27th February - not a particularly skillful prediction since about 75% of a normal winter can be categorised as a mobile westerly type.



Dick Lovett

You can always try doing what I do, if you feel it is so easy.

Would you like to proffer an alternative and perhaps more detailed
forecast? You appear to have missed commenting on my previous 3/4 correct
forecasts David: shame but there you go. You also missed my proffered
opportunity to forecast yourself. Too easy, I suppose. *)).

Just out of interest, how did you go on last Winter, we were buried in the
white stuff more times
than not from Jan to Mar, did you forecast that lot correctly?
I really haven't found forecasting difficult at all this Winter, most of my
forecasts have been the bleeding same, not very challenging at all!
I do a daily and weekly forecast for a local radio station and they want to
know when the snow may arrive, I told them March or April


Graham

Would you like to proffer an alternative and perhaps more detailed
forecast? You appear to have missed commenting on my previous 3/4 correct
forecasts David: shame but there you go. You also missed my proffered
opportunity to forecast yourself. Too easy, I suppose. *)).

Just out of interest, how did you go on last Winter, we were buried in the
white stuff more times
than not from Jan to Mar, did you forecast that lot correctly?
I really haven't found forecasting difficult at all this Winter, most of my
forecasts have been the bleeding same, not very challenging at all!
I do a daily and weekly forecast for a local radio station and they want to
know when the snow may arrive, I told them March or April


Graham

80% of the time; yes. If there is agreement and consistency, it doesn't matter which weather type the method forecasts, bu surely you saw the forescasts on here? You can search the archive to see them.

"You appear to have missed commenting on my previous 3/4 correct forecasts David:"

"I like the fact that every time I forecast, There is something for you to talk about."

You contradict yourself, again. Either I am responding to every forecast you issue, or I'm not. Make your mind up. (Incidentally, your first comment is the correct one).

I asked you a very simple question and you have still been unable to answer it.
What period does your forecast cover? The reason why I'm asking is because you state it's for 240 hours ahead, yet you refer to day and days in your "forecast". Is it for one day, or two, or even three. Or is it just for that 240 slot?
Incidentally, without being picky, anyone attempting to analyse your claim (has anyone?) would find difficulty as the defined period is unclear. Bit like dear old Piers really.

Look at the title of each of my 10- day forecasts and you will find a clue.

*))

On Tuesday, 18 February 2014 17:59:28 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, February 18, 2014 3:56:44 PM UTC, Dick wrote:

On Monday, February 17, 2014 7:22:53 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:



Not a forecast I enjoy making, but there's agreement and consistency amongst the models.















**On Thursday, 27th February, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Windy and wet weather will be interspersed with drier days, in ridges of high pressure. Snow will be generally confined to hills, falling mainly in the lee of depressions.**















Typical winter zonal weather. More wind and wet to the end of Feb. Oh joy!







If, by your own admission, you cannot predict what the weather will be like at T+240 how can you claim to have issued a forecast, let alone one that is of any use. All you appear to have said is that the Atlantic will be influencing our weather on the 27th February - not a particularly skillful prediction since about 75% of a normal winter can be categorised as a mobile westerly type.







Dick Lovett



You can always try doing what I do, if you feel it is so easy.

But Paul you don't do anything.

On Tuesday, 18 February 2014 20:31:09 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Look at the title of each of my 10- day forecasts and you will find a clue.



*))

Atlantic, zonal weather at T+240. So once again you fail to answer the question. I have made my question as simple as I can, as you refer to day and then days in the "forecast", so what period is the forecast for? How can you fail to understand? Or is it because you've recognised the error and can't admit it?

And no comment about your obvious error in claiming that I don't then do comment on your forecasts.

Apart from the fact that I've already answered this, but in your angry mode, you've managed to miss and I give a clear outcome date on every forecast, you would be absolutely correct. *))