On Monday, November 10, 2014 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, November 9, 2014 8:33:03 AM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold, but wet
and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.

I wonder if this forecast could be in trouble.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Always best to wait until outcome to judge. *))

But of course
I'm not judging, merely commenting on how the models are looking
with respect to your forecast.

I'm wrong almost 20% of the time and there has certainly been a shift to a
more blocked regime on the models this evening.

Latest runs don't show quite the same easterly push as before,
but it's certainly not 'Atlantic weather'.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I know - very true!

Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, November 10, 2014 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, November 9, 2014 8:33:03 AM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold, but wet
and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.
I wonder if this forecast could be in trouble.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Always best to wait until outcome to judge. *))
But of course
I'm not judging, merely commenting on how the models are looking
with respect to your forecast.

I'm wrong almost 20% of the time and there has certainly been a shift to a
more blocked regime on the models this evening.
Latest runs don't show quite the same easterly push as before,
but it's certainly not 'Atlantic weather'.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I know - very true!
--------------------------------------------------------------
One of the few when the models have not worked out to be right. I know
you've suggested I do it but I'm too lazy :-) - but for statistical sake
I would love you to try and make a forecast (or guess, which it would be
with no agreement, say 6 times a year, to see if it is worse or better
than the ones with the model consistency. Be interesting to see exactly
how far from 20% it would be. My guess is 50% as it is random - but then
of course the next question is how does one assess accuracy?

Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, November 10, 2014 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, November 9, 2014 8:33:03 AM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold,
but wet
and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.
I wonder if this forecast could be in trouble.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Always best to wait until outcome to judge. *))
But of course
I'm not judging, merely commenting on how the models are looking
with respect to your forecast.

I'm wrong almost 20% of the time and there has certainly been a
shift to a more blocked regime on the models this evening.
Latest runs don't show quite the same easterly push as before,
but it's certainly not 'Atlantic weather'.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I know - very true!
--------------------------------------------------------------
One of the few when the models have not worked out to be right. I know
you've suggested I do it but I'm too lazy :-) - but for statistical sake
I would love you to try and make a forecast (or guess, which it would be
with no agreement, say 6 times a year, to see if it is worse or better
than the ones with the model consistency. Be interesting to see exactly
how far from 20% it would be. My guess is 50% as it is random - but then
of course the next question is how does one assess accuracy?
---------------
Sorry - from 80% accuracy I mean.

On Sunday, November 16, 2014 7:20:04 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, November 10, 2014 6:36:08 PM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Sunday, November 9, 2014 8:33:03 AM UTC, Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold, but wet
and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.
I wonder if this forecast could be in trouble.....
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg
Always best to wait until outcome to judge. *))
But of course
I'm not judging, merely commenting on how the models are looking
with respect to your forecast.

I'm wrong almost 20% of the time and there has certainly been a shift to a
more blocked regime on the models this evening.
Latest runs don't show quite the same easterly push as before,
but it's certainly not 'Atlantic weather'.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I know - very true!
--------------------------------------------------------------
One of the few when the models have not worked out to be right. I know
you've suggested I do it but I'm too lazy :-) - but for statistical sake
I would love you to try and make a forecast (or guess, which it would be
with no agreement, say 6 times a year, to see if it is worse or better
than the ones with the model consistency. Be interesting to see exactly
how far from 20% it would be. My guess is 50% as it is random - but then
of course the next question is how does one assess accuracy?

My guess would be around 50% too. I feel that there are only particular times when forecasting accurately is possible. If someone wants to verify that, be my guest. My work has certainly shown that when particular parameters are met, forecasting at 10 days can be usefully accurate.

On Friday, November 7, 2014 8:57:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold, but wet and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.

Well, we certainly have low pressure dominance, but this isn't Atlantic weather and we have an influence from blocking to our NE which is introducing this NE/N flow across the country.

A forecast for the bin, I'm afraid and one of the 20% I don't get right.

On Monday, 17 November 2014 05:50:52 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, November 7, 2014 8:57:12 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold, but wet and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.

Well, we certainly have low pressure dominance, but this isn't Atlantic weather and we have an influence from blocking to our NE which is introducing this NE/N flow across the country.

A forecast for the bin, I'm afraid and one of the 20% I don't get right.

What forecast FFS you've never made one , just a jumble of horoscopic words dressed up to sound like one and even that is doing then too much justice.

Okay this thread began with a forecast made last week for today and as vague as it was it was wrong.

So shouldn't there also be a forecast issued for next week? I mean how often do you issue theses forecasts and what is the criteria for prediction.

Is it weather type i.e. Atlantic westerly's or blocking?

Do they give more detail than that or is that the only parameter that you use for your forecast.

Please explain what these forecasts of yours actually forecast and how often.

On Friday, 7 November 2014 20:57:12 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday 17th Nov. **Not especially warm, not especially cold, but wet and potentially windy for many areas. Atlantic weather.**

Winter not starting early, fortunately.

Hi,

Can I ask Mr Dawlish what qualifications he holds within the realms of Meteorology?

On what basis have you come up with your forecasts?
Are you purely working from raw model data or an empirical methdology?

Are you a Met Office employee, as you live not far away from HQ?

Have you adjusted model output with use of any particular knowledge or theorem?

How do you rate your score of 20% wrong? Spot site basis, CET measures, or climatology?

Regards
Ben

Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, November 16, 2014 7:20:04 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------
One of the few when the models have not worked out to be right. I
know you've suggested I do it but I'm too lazy :-) - but for
statistical sake I would love you to try and make a forecast (or
guess, which it would be with no agreement, say 6 times a year, to
see if it is worse or better than the ones with the model
consistency. Be interesting to see exactly how far from 20% it would
be. My guess is 50% as it is random - but then of course the next
question is how does one assess accuracy?

My guess would be around 50% too. I feel that there are only
particular times when forecasting accurately is possible. If someone
wants to verify that, be my guest. My work has certainly shown that
when particular parameters are met, forecasting at 10 days can be
usefully accurate.

Although this was of course one of the 20% that got away
Of course even a failure tells us something interesting.
10 days ago there was no sign of the current transition to a more
settled regime, you wouldn't have made that forecast if there had
been. Around 7 days ago the models began to pick up on it and
although it has ebbed and flowed somewhat has stuck with that
theme ever since.

Although this forecast wasn't a complete disaster we did get the
low pressure dominating after all, the 'type' wasm't correct.
As you only assess on a righ/wrong basis, what are your criteria
for evaluation?
There must be a fair few 'marginal' situations.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Monday, November 17, 2014 6:39:21 PM UTC, Col wrote:
Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, November 16, 2014 7:20:04 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
--------------------------------------------------------------
One of the few when the models have not worked out to be right. I
know you've suggested I do it but I'm too lazy :-) - but for
statistical sake I would love you to try and make a forecast (or
guess, which it would be with no agreement, say 6 times a year, to
see if it is worse or better than the ones with the model
consistency. Be interesting to see exactly how far from 20% it would
be. My guess is 50% as it is random - but then of course the next
question is how does one assess accuracy?

My guess would be around 50% too. I feel that there are only
particular times when forecasting accurately is possible. If someone
wants to verify that, be my guest. My work has certainly shown that
when particular parameters are met, forecasting at 10 days can be
usefully accurate.

Although this was of course one of the 20% that got away
Of course even a failure tells us something interesting.
10 days ago there was no sign of the current transition to a more
settled regime, you wouldn't have made that forecast if there had
been. Around 7 days ago the models began to pick up on it and
although it has ebbed and flowed somewhat has stuck with that
theme ever since.

Although this forecast wasn't a complete disaster we did get the
low pressure dominating after all, the 'type' wasm't correct.
As you only assess on a righ/wrong basis, what are your criteria
for evaluation?
There must be a fair few 'marginal' situations.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

You'd be surprised Col. I'm my own harshest critic on judging a forecast right, or wrong and thus, I don't see the marginal ones as close. I'm either just about spot on (correct) or not (wrong). Although the low pressure dominance is there, there is no way this is Atlantic air. A case, for me, of too wrong to be right.

Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, November 17, 2014 6:39:21 PM UTC, Col wrote:

Although this forecast wasn't a complete disaster we did get the
low pressure dominating after all, the 'type' wasm't correct.
As you only assess on a righ/wrong basis, what are your criteria
for evaluation?
There must be a fair few 'marginal' situations.

You'd be surprised Col. I'm my own harshest critic on judging a
forecast right, or wrong and thus, I don't see the marginal ones as
close. I'm either just about spot on (correct) or not (wrong).
Although the low pressure dominance is there, there is no way this is
Atlantic air. A case, for me, of too wrong to be right.

OK thanks for clarifying that.
You have to be be pretty much spot on to be deemed 'correct'.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg