Last evening around 19.00 on BBC1 there was mention that 'By this time Friday there will be some violent and slow moving storms in the SW at first spreading North and North East.

Well where are these coming from as there's nothing on the radar or is it from the showers currently in Biscay?

Rob

On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 5:24:38 PM UTC+1, Norman wrote:
Freddie wrote:

Rob K Wrote in message:
Last evening around 19.00 on BBC1 there was mention that 'By this time
Friday there will be some violent and slow moving storms in the SW at first
spreading North and North East.

Well where are these coming from as there's nothing on the radar or is it
from the showers currently in Biscay?

Rob


They are going to develop as an upper trough (to our south west)
overruns the warm and moist air present over the UK. They don't
exist at present as the upper trough isn't currently causing
ascent of the warm moist air. It will do this evening though.
Bring it on!! as Will would say :-)


The radar is showing some heavy precipitation in the SW Approaches now.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org


Ah yes can see it now and thanks for the explanation, Just wonder how far east this will reach overnight.

Rob

On 03/07/2015 17:10, Freddie wrote:
Rob K Wrote in message:
Last evening around 19.00 on BBC1 there was mention that 'By this time Friday there will be some violent and slow moving storms in the SW at first spreading North and North East.

Well where are these coming from as there's nothing on the radar or is it from the showers currently in Biscay?

Rob


They are going to develop as an upper trough (to our south west)
overruns the warm and moist air present over the UK. They don't
exist at present as the upper trough isn't currently causing
ascent of the warm moist air. It will do this evening though.
Bring it on!! as Will would say :-)

----------------------------------------------
It would be nice Freddie but S.E has been much cooler than forecast
today and lower humidity. Don't know if that will have an effect on the
development?
Dave

On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 5:10:41 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Rob K Wrote in message:
Last evening around 19.00 on BBC1 there was mention that 'By this time Friday there will be some violent and slow moving storms in the SW at first spreading North and North East.

Well where are these coming from as there's nothing on the radar or is it from the showers currently in Biscay?

Rob


They are going to develop as an upper trough (to our south west)
overruns the warm and moist air present over the UK. They don't
exist at present as the upper trough isn't currently causing
ascent of the warm moist air. It will do this evening though.
Bring it on!! as Will would say :-)
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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===========

Did you see the ascent at Trappes (Paris), for example? Link is to the University of Wyoming Skew-t:

http://bit.ly/1GUZiGq

Warm / dry layers between 900 and 800 hPa and ~2000 J/kg of CAPE, with high CAPE values expanding aereally as the trough nears.

Approach of the trough will cause cooling aloft - maybe not sufficient for the capping inversion to break around Pars itself but farther west and north more likely, and then off we go.

Stephen.

On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 5:37:07 PM UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:

It would be nice Freddie but S.E has been much cooler than forecast
today and lower humidity. Don't know if that will have an effect on the
development?
Dave

=======

What forecast did you see? Maxima will be 25-28 deg C across the SE and parts of E Anglia / E Midlands today which looks about right to me. That's about what we forecast, anyway. And see above - trough approach and associated cooling aloft and lift will do the trick.

Stephen.

On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 5:42:12 PM UTC+1, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 5:10:41 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
Rob K Wrote in message:
Last evening around 19.00 on BBC1 there was mention that 'By this time Friday there will be some violent and slow moving storms in the SW at first spreading North and North East.

Well where are these coming from as there's nothing on the radar or is it from the showers currently in Biscay?

Rob


They are going to develop as an upper trough (to our south west)
overruns the warm and moist air present over the UK. They don't
exist at present as the upper trough isn't currently causing
ascent of the warm moist air. It will do this evening though.
Bring it on!! as Will would say :-)
--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


----Android NewsGroup Reader----
http://usenet.sinaapp.com/

===========

Did you see the ascent at Trappes (Paris), for example? Link is to the University of Wyoming Skew-t:

http://bit.ly/1GUZiGq

Warm / dry layers between 900 and 800 hPa and ~2000 J/kg of CAPE, with high CAPE values expanding aereally as the trough nears.

Approach of the trough will cause cooling aloft - maybe not sufficient for the capping inversion to break around Pars itself but farther west and north more likely, and then off we go.

Stephen.

1000j/kg of CAPE over Dawlish 2100-0000. Could be very interesting and I'm hoping for lightning and thunder and the storms are forecast to intensify as they track NW. Some parts of the UK are in for a stormy old night.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...forecast;sess=

On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 5:55:40 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:


1000j/kg of CAPE over Dawlish 2100-0000. Could be very interesting and I'm hoping for lightning and thunder and the storms are forecast to intensify as they track NW. Some parts of the UK are in for a stormy old night.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...forecast;sess=

========

Track will be NE not NW. I assume a typo.

Greatest risk of *severe* storms will, IMHO, be around E Anglia and Lincs (and maybe the SE).

Stephen.

On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 6:14:41 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:

Indeed I did! A very exciting shape - there is more moisture
further west :-)

Approach of the trough will cause cooling aloft - maybe not sufficient for the capping inversion to break around Pars itself but farther west and north more likely, and then off we go.
Yes I'm hoping for quite a show here!


--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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==========

A "loaded gun" ascent, as a colleague described it.

You should get some sort of lively performance but the more fearsome stuff might be to your east, would you agree?

Stephen.

In article ,
says...
I'm hoping for lightning and thunder


No mention of the poor sods who will inevitably have repairs to roofing
and chimney stacks? No sympathy for that large number of astraphobes who
will be cowering in the hallway with a duvet over their heads. Not
worried about the possibility of someone actually being struck by
lightning?

Or is that just something that other people have to think about? For
other weather events? Like snow?

Or is it just your hypocrisy showing again?

--
Alan LeHun
Reply-to is valid. Add "BPSF" to subject: to bypass spam filters.

On Friday, July 3, 2015 at 6:25:12 PM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:

Beat me to it!

Greatest risk of *severe* storms will, IMHO, be around E Anglia and Lincs (and maybe the SE).
I think the heavy and most persistent rain will be a bit further
west. Won't evaporation play a part in the SE?


--
Freddie
Pontesbury
Shropshire
102m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly reports


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=========

Yes, I think you're right for the SE as far as rainfall totals go, and just *slight* severe risks. High amounts more likely under the more probable strong, widespread and potentially severe storms across East Anglia - intense rainfall and large hail risks, aside from frequent lightning. Also high rainfall totals, I expect, north of a line from about the Severn Estuary NE to N Lincs/Humberside into Scotland (less so for W Cumbria and W Lancs.)

Stephen.