In message -jade, Graham P Davis
writes
On Sat, 17 Oct 2015 16:42:07 -0700 (PDT)
Crusader wrote:

I have been professionally forecasting for 22 years, but this is just
a bit of fun based on a little experience, and current trends against
cyclic changes that are known to me.

About fifty years ago, someone said to me that when you've found a
cycle through looking at past data you can be pretty sure that it will
break down as soon as you try to use it for forecasting. Murphy's Law
triumphs almost every time.


Yes, ISTR that Gordon Manley mentioned that in passing in "Climate and
the British Scene".
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 2:44:00 PM UTC-4, Crusader wrote:
Hi will, I remember you from the old days, and you would know that I do know about the NWP and parallel suites and keep very up to date with it all as a Senior Op Met even today. I can just see the flaws as well as the attributes that make it all so convenient to use the Models and the latest methods. Never let it be said that I an not Holistic in my approaches.

As I said, a bit of fun with no problems when it goes wrong...I am very used to that in the MetO!

=======


Hi, again.

But could you please clarify what you mean by "latest methods" and "supposed" modern studies, and why model data are "irrelevant"?

Thanks,

Stephen.

On Sunday, 18 October 2015 14:43:44 UTC+1, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Sunday, 18 October 2015 13:12:57 UTC+1, Alan LeHun wrote:
In article -jade,
says...
About fifty years ago, someone said to me that when you've found a
cycle through looking at past data you can be pretty sure that it will
break down as soon as you try to use it for forecasting. Murphy's Law
triumphs almost every time.


So weather cycles are actually singular point phenomena that expand into
indeterminate wave functions when they are observed? I think I did read
that somewhere.

Apparently, if you keep them in a box they will maintain their cyclic
properties but you are not allowed to know what they are. It goes all
fuzzy if you take a peek...

--
Alan LeHun

Doesn't it have to be on a cube inside a pyramid ?

No, Alan has let the cat out of the bag/box :-)

For god sake dont read this!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...FB_mirror_main

"Rob K" wrote in message
...
For god sake dont read this!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...FB_mirror_main

If you see beyond the alarmism, not a bad article for a newspaper.
I had to laugh at this line though
" And there are fears of travel chaos during the festive season, with London
set for five days of snow or ice."
5 days, gosh, had more than that in the mild winter last year!

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Sunday, October 18, 2015 at 1:18:04 PM UTC-4,

snip
FWIW with climate change surely reliance on old patterns of cycles or
singularities go out of the window unless they have a physical basis like
SST anomalies?

=======

I would agree with that. Singularities are interesting and have some statistical merit but might be less useful in a changed climatalogical paradigm. I'm not convinced that there are predictable cycles.

Stephen.

Stephen.

On Monday, 19 October 2015 14:37:30 UTC+1, wrote:
"Rob K" wrote in message
...
For god sake dont read this!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...FB_mirror_main

If you see beyond the alarmism, not a bad article for a newspaper.
I had to laugh at this line though
" And there are fears of travel chaos during the festive season, with London
set for five days of snow or ice."
5 days, gosh, had more than that in the mild winter last year!

Gilbert White, in his journal Natural History of Selbourne, tells of a visit to London in January 1776 when the metropolis was completely embedded in snow. He says that snow remained on houses in the City for 26 days - these days it is unusual for any snow to fall in the centre

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On Monday, October 19, 2015 at 2:30:16 PM UTC+1, Rob K wrote:
For god sake dont read this!

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news...FB_mirror_main

There have been a number of articles recently mentioning the cold Atlantic temperatures for 80 years / since records began. The MetO joined in on the act with that recent clip.

Thing is, the very low temperatures, caused in my view largely by the persistent cold WNW winds at the start of the year, no longer exist. The cold pool's been slowly 'warming' and dissipating for months. Currently http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/o...vy-anom-bb.gif , the area of the north Atlantic 1C below normal is now well 10%. There is now a tendency for above normal temperatures just to the west of the UK.

The most notable feature now, to my mind, is the warmth off the east coast of the USA.

Graham
Penzance

On 19/10/2015 15:57, Graham Easterling wrote:
The MetO joined in on the act with that recent clip.

Can you supply a link for that please Graham. Thanks

On Monday, October 19, 2015 at 4:18:09 PM UTC+1, Metman2012 wrote:
On 19/10/2015 15:57, Graham Easterling wrote:
The MetO joined in on the act with that recent clip.

Can you supply a link for that please Graham. Thanks

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feature...e=news_central

It actually mentions part of the north Atlantic being 3C below normal, which was the case a few months back, but certainly not for some considerable time now.

Graham
Penzance

Graham
Penzance