Actually closer than T+240 on both the gfs and GEM, with both showing a rise in pressure to our East over the Baltic. However, nothing as yet on the ECM, so no agreement.

The present zonal train has to end sometime. That proposed pressure rise to our east is the first sign of anything at T+240, or closer, for two weeks.

On Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 2:31:34 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Actually closer than T+240 on both the gfs and GEM, with both showing a rise in pressure to our East over the Baltic. However, nothing as yet on the ECM, so no agreement, but very slightly interesting.

The present zonal train has to end sometime. That proposed pressure rise to our east is the first sign of anything at T+240, or closer, for two weeks.

Very slightly interesting to see a forecast rise in 10hPa temps at our latitude as well over the next few days.

On 22/12/2015 14:31, Dawlish wrote:
Actually closer than T+240 on both the gfs and GEM, with both showing a rise in pressure to our East over the Baltic. However, nothing as yet on the ECM, so no agreement.

The present zonal train has to end sometime. That proposed pressure rise to our east is the first sign of anything at T+240, or closer, for two weeks.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There have been several attempts at that actually over the last couple
of weeks and at around that date but of course then they were further
out than T+240 then. Sooner or later something will probably give but to
say it "has to end" isn't strictly true although the odds are that it will!
Dave

On Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 2:57:14 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 22/12/2015 14:31, Dawlish wrote:
Actually closer than T+240 on both the gfs and GEM, with both showing a rise in pressure to our East over the Baltic. However, nothing as yet on the ECM, so no agreement.

The present zonal train has to end sometime. That proposed pressure rise to our east is the first sign of anything at T+240, or closer, for two weeks.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There have been several attempts at that actually....

****over the last couple
of weeks and at around that date but of course then they were further
out than T+240 then****.


Sooner or later something will probably give but to
say it "has to end" isn't strictly true although the odds are that it will!
Dave

Understand the odds bit very well and I accept your correction! It's like 'it's sure to snow sometime this winter.......' 😀

****PS The gfs does only go out to 16 days, Dave!

On Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 3:41:15 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 2:57:14 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 22/12/2015 14:31, Dawlish wrote:
Actually closer than T+240 on both the gfs and GEM, with both showing a rise in pressure to our East over the Baltic. However, nothing as yet on the ECM, so no agreement.

The present zonal train has to end sometime. That proposed pressure rise to our east is the first sign of anything at T+240, or closer, for two weeks.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There have been several attempts at that actually....

****over the last couple
of weeks and at around that date but of course then they were further
out than T+240 then****.


Sooner or later something will probably give but to
say it "has to end" isn't strictly true although the odds are that it will!
Dave

Understand the odds bit very well and I accept your correction! It's like 'it's sure to snow sometime this winter.......' 😀

****PS The gfs does only go out to 16 days, Dave!

A little more interested following those 12z runs. ECM now showing the Anticyclone over the Baltic and GEM turning potentially wintry!

See what turns up tomorrow......

On Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 7:18:08 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 3:41:15 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, December 22, 2015 at 2:57:14 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 22/12/2015 14:31, Dawlish wrote:
Actually closer than T+240 on both the gfs and GEM, with both showing a rise in pressure to our East over the Baltic. However, nothing as yet on the ECM, so no agreement.

The present zonal train has to end sometime. That proposed pressure rise to our east is the first sign of anything at T+240, or closer, for two weeks.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There have been several attempts at that actually....

****over the last couple
of weeks and at around that date but of course then they were further
out than T+240 then****.


Sooner or later something will probably give but to
say it "has to end" isn't strictly true although the odds are that it will!
Dave

Understand the odds bit very well and I accept your correction! It's like 'it's sure to snow sometime this winter.......' 😀

****PS The gfs does only go out to 16 days, Dave!

A little more interested following those 12z runs. ECM now showing the Anticyclone over the Baltic and GEM turning potentially wintry!

See what turns up tomorrow......

And a little less interesting this morning.....😀

Careful Paul, you're beginning to sound like one of your "coldies"!

--
Steve, Swansea

On Wednesday, December 23, 2015 at 8:46:27 AM UTC, wrote:
Careful Paul, you're beginning to sound like one of your "coldies"!

--
Steve, Swansea

😀😀 Hahaha! I look for changes, more than anything Steve. The 'interesting development' would be a change to this zonal pattern. Coldies look for cold. When I've challenged whether cold is actually likely, coldies have this innate desire to say it will be cold. Whatever the output shows.

As I said, the output is less interesting on the 00z/06z (gfs). Poor coldies. 😀😀

On 23/12/2015 11:31, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, December 23, 2015 at 8:46:27 AM UTC, wrote:
Careful Paul, you're beginning to sound like one of your "coldies"!

--
Steve, Swansea

😀😀 Hahaha! I look for changes, more than anything Steve. The 'interesting development' would be a change to this zonal pattern. Coldies look for cold. When I've challenged whether cold is actually likely, coldies have this innate desire to say it will be cold. Whatever the output shows.

As I said, the output is less interesting on the 00z/06z (gfs). Poor coldies. 😀😀

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The reality for most "coldies" is we like something interesting and
different. This usually means sun in the summer and cold in the winter
because it's what we don't usually get. We also tend to like records so
this record warmth has been better than "at least it will be mild". But
the warmth has now become the norm and the interest in the longevity of
essentially the same weather pattern is getting boring so cold is the
only thing of interest now which even you seem to be looking for!
Dave

On Wednesday, December 23, 2015 at 12:05:29 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 23/12/2015 11:31, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, December 23, 2015 at 8:46:27 AM UTC, wrote:
Careful Paul, you're beginning to sound like one of your "coldies"!

--
Steve, Swansea

😀😀 Hahaha! I look for changes, more than anything Steve. The 'interesting development' would be a change to this zonal pattern. Coldies look for cold. When I've challenged whether cold is actually likely, coldies have this innate desire to say it will be cold. Whatever the output shows.

As I said, the output is less interesting on the 00z/06z (gfs). Poor coldies. 😀😀

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The reality for most "coldies" is we like something interesting and
different. This usually means sun in the summer and cold in the winter
because it's what we don't usually get. We also tend to like records so
this record warmth has been better than "at least it will be mild". But
the warmth has now become the norm and the interest in the longevity of
essentially the same weather pattern is getting boring so cold is the
only thing of interest now which even you seem to be looking for!
Dave

Hmmmm. Makes me a coldie, Dave; apart from the bit about 'cold in winter', of course.