On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 9:32:57 AM UTC, dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, January 21, 2016 at 9:22:58 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 21/01/2016 21:02, dawlish wrote:
**It'll do what it says on the tin** 😀

Thanks for the detail.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

No worries Col. When my forecasts are more detailed and are correct, you don't comment anyway. People generally only comment when they are wrong, which they are, around 20% of the time, so I promise there will be future commenting opportunities! 😌

Pleased to hear that. So on recent evidence we can expect a forecast in May? Or are you only bothering when there's a change in weather type?

"David Mitchell" wrote in message
...
snip

Pleased to hear that. So on recent evidence we can expect a forecast in May?
Or are you only bothering when there's a change in weather type?
=============

What's French for idiot? :-) ----- an emoticon

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 1:07:25 PM UTC, wrote:
"David Mitchell" wrote in message
...
snip

Pleased to hear that. So on recent evidence we can expect a forecast in May?
Or are you only bothering when there's a change in weather type?
=============

What's French for idiot? :-) ----- an emoticon

Will
--
" Some sects believe that the world was created 5000 years ago. Another sect
believes that it was created in 1910 "
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

Will''s peeking again.......and again, can't resist.

On 22/01/2016 09:32, dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, January 21, 2016 at 9:22:58 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 21/01/2016 21:02, dawlish wrote:
**It'll do what it says on the tin** 😀

Thanks for the detail.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

No worries Col. When my forecasts are more detailed and are correct, you don't comment anyway. People generally only comment when they are wrong, which they are, around 20% of the time, so I promise there will be future commenting opportunities! 😌

Well what do you expect me to say, who's a clever boy then for getting
it right?

Actually I don't think I normally comment when you say you are wrong,
but a do recall a couple of occasions when you claimed a correct
forecast and I effectively 'challenged' it.

But just saying 'zonal' is next to useless as it covers a pretty broad
swathe of weather types.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 6:04:17 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 22/01/2016 09:32, dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, January 21, 2016 at 9:22:58 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 21/01/2016 21:02, dawlish wrote:
**It'll do what it says on the tin** 😀

Thanks for the detail.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

No worries Col. When my forecasts are more detailed and are correct, you don't comment anyway. People generally only comment when they are wrong, which they are, around 20% of the time, so I promise there will be future commenting opportunities! 😌

Well what do you expect me to say, who's a clever boy then for getting
it right?

Actually I don't think I normally comment when you say you are wrong,
but a do recall a couple of occasions when you claimed a correct
forecast and I effectively 'challenged' it.

But just saying 'zonal' is next to useless as it covers a pretty broad
swathe of weather types.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

No, Just judge a forecast at outcome, right, or wrong. You know what zonal means, I think, as does everyone on here. What I don't see are the 'indications' of a SSW event that apparently have been there in the models. That's fiction, I'm afraid, unless it was the single outlier of the gfs that Will felt the need to comment upon. Models tonight show zonal at the end of the month, with an outside chance of Northerly pushing further south than is currently shown. I doubt it will, however. Much more likely that zonal will predominate.

Helpful? Probably not.

On Friday, 22 January 2016 19:29:36 UTC, dawlish wrote:

No, Just judge a forecast at outcome, right, or wrong. You know what zonal means, I think, as does everyone on here. What I don't see are the 'indications' of a SSW event that apparently have been there in the models. That's fiction, I'm afraid, unless it was the single outlier of the gfs that Will felt the need to comment upon. Models tonight show zonal at the end of the month, with an outside chance of Northerly pushing further south than is currently shown. I doubt it will, however. Much more likely that zonal will predominate.

Helpful? Probably not.


Paul, are you using just the link you posted back in December for your 'indicator'? At that time you did suggest an SSW appeared to be forming.

Other models suggested otherwise then and those same models suggest an SSW this time...

(Excuse the copy/paste to bottom of this post - I know it's not Usenet protocol but then I'm just using the older post for reference!)

Joe

...Snipped....
NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 7:45:15 PM UTC, wrote:
On Friday, 22 January 2016 19:29:36 UTC, dawlish wrote:

No, Just judge a forecast at outcome, right, or wrong. You know what zonal means, I think, as does everyone on here. What I don't see are the 'indications' of a SSW event that apparently have been there in the models. That's fiction, I'm afraid, unless it was the single outlier of the gfs that Will felt the need to comment upon. Models tonight show zonal at the end of the month, with an outside chance of Northerly pushing further south than is currently shown. I doubt it will, however. Much more likely that zonal will predominate.

Helpful? Probably not.


Paul, are you using just the link you posted back in December for your 'indicator'? At that time you did suggest an SSW appeared to be forming.

Other models suggested otherwise then and those same models suggest an SSW this time...

(Excuse the copy/paste to bottom of this post - I know it's not Usenet protocol but then I'm just using the older post for reference!)

Joe

...Snipped....
NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

The gfs/ECM/GEM/JMA at 9/10 days, or out to 16 with the gfs. Nothing on those.

On Friday, 22 January 2016 20:36:50 UTC, dawlish wrote:
On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 7:45:15 PM UTC, wrote:
On Friday, 22 January 2016 19:29:36 UTC, dawlish wrote:

No, Just judge a forecast at outcome, right, or wrong. You know what zonal means, I think, as does everyone on here. What I don't see are the 'indications' of a SSW event that apparently have been there in the models. That's fiction, I'm afraid, unless it was the single outlier of the gfs that Will felt the need to comment upon. Models tonight show zonal at the end of the month, with an outside chance of Northerly pushing further south than is currently shown. I doubt it will, however. Much more likely that zonal will predominate.

Helpful? Probably not.


Paul, are you using just the link you posted back in December for your 'indicator'? At that time you did suggest an SSW appeared to be forming.

Other models suggested otherwise then and those same models suggest an SSW this time...

(Excuse the copy/paste to bottom of this post - I know it's not Usenet protocol but then I'm just using the older post for reference!)

Joe

...Snipped....
NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

The gfs/ECM/GEM/JMA at 9/10 days, or out to 16 with the gfs. Nothing on those.

Is that 500hpa / 850hpa charts? That's tropospheric level if so, is that not correct?

On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 8:39:38 PM UTC, wrote:
On Friday, 22 January 2016 20:36:50 UTC, dawlish wrote:
On Friday, January 22, 2016 at 7:45:15 PM UTC, wrote:
On Friday, 22 January 2016 19:29:36 UTC, dawlish wrote:

No, Just judge a forecast at outcome, right, or wrong. You know what zonal means, I think, as does everyone on here. What I don't see are the 'indications' of a SSW event that apparently have been there in the models. That's fiction, I'm afraid, unless it was the single outlier of the gfs that Will felt the need to comment upon. Models tonight show zonal at the end of the month, with an outside chance of Northerly pushing further south than is currently shown. I doubt it will, however. Much more likely that zonal will predominate.

Helpful? Probably not.


Paul, are you using just the link you posted back in December for your 'indicator'? At that time you did suggest an SSW appeared to be forming.

Other models suggested otherwise then and those same models suggest an SSW this time...

(Excuse the copy/paste to bottom of this post - I know it's not Usenet protocol but then I'm just using the older post for reference!)

Joe

...Snipped....
NB However, a SSW appears to be in the process of forming, so cold *may* head our way later in January. (Noting that the relationship between the development of SSWs and the establishment of cold from the east, in the UK, is not in any way a certain one).

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...rent_merra.pdf

The gfs/ECM/GEM/JMA at 9/10 days, or out to 16 with the gfs. Nothing on those.

Is that 500hpa / 850hpa charts? That's tropospheric level if so, is that not correct?

It was the wrong chart to post, I'm afraid. The 90N 10Hpa chart showed no such prediction. You live and learn .

In message ,
dawlish writes
**It'll do what it says on the tin** 0

Sounds good to me, another winter week with little chance of the white
****e.

Cheers
--


Jim