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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100
Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 231433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease, the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer] http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ I wear the cheese. It does not wear me. Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/ |
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On 23/08/2016 20:03, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100 Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 231433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease, the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake This upper winds image is now showing Gaston and the triplet nicely http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...pe=0&archive=0 coming in at the bottom, rejuvanated storm 6 that became Fiona in the middle and Hermine off the eastern USA seaboard |
#16
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On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 20:58:41 +0100
N_Cook wrote: On 23/08/2016 20:03, Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100 Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 231433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease, the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake This upper winds image is now showing Gaston and the triplet nicely http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...pe=0&archive=0 coming in at the bottom, rejuvanated storm 6 that became Fiona in the middle and Hermine off the eastern USA seaboard In that forecast for 2nd September, the storm in the middle, the one with an eye, is Gaston. The one at the bottom is a forecast new development. Here is the latest for Gaston: 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240234 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Gaston's cloud pattern has a figure-nine appearance, with an apparent dry slot over the southwest quadrant, and lacks a well-defined CDO at this time. The intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The system has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow and is expected to remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so. Therefore, the cyclone is likely to intensify into a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours. In about 36 hours, however, Gaston should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near 50-55W. This should at least temporarily halt the intensification process, and probably cause a little weakening. The global models indicate that Gaston will pass by the trough in 72 hours, and reintensification should commence around that time. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance models through 72 hours, and close to the model consensus thereafter. The motion continues toward the west-northwest, or 290/15 kt. Gaston should gradually turn toward the northwest in response to a break in the subtropical ridge near 60W. The official track forecast, which is very similar to the previous one, follows the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.8N 39.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.5N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 22.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 29.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 31.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer] http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ I wear the cheese. It does not wear me. Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/ |
#17
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On Wednesday, 24 August 2016 06:25:09 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 20:58:41 +0100 N_Cook wrote: On 23/08/2016 20:03, Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100 Graham P Davis wrote: On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100 N_Cook wrote: Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September? Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend. According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 231433 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory. The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease, the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake This upper winds image is now showing Gaston and the triplet nicely http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...pe=0&archive=0 coming in at the bottom, rejuvanated storm 6 that became Fiona in the middle and Hermine off the eastern USA seaboard In that forecast for 2nd September, the storm in the middle, the one with an eye, is Gaston. The one at the bottom is a forecast new development. Here is the latest for Gaston: 000 WTNT42 KNHC 240234 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016 Gaston's cloud pattern has a figure-nine appearance, with an apparent dry slot over the southwest quadrant, and lacks a well-defined CDO at this time. The intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The system has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow and is expected to remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so. Therefore, the cyclone is likely to intensify into a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours. In about 36 hours, however, Gaston should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near 50-55W. This should at least temporarily halt the intensification process, and probably cause a little weakening. The global models indicate that Gaston will pass by the trough in 72 hours, and reintensification should commence around that time. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance models through 72 hours, and close to the model consensus thereafter. The motion continues toward the west-northwest, or 290/15 kt. Gaston should gradually turn toward the northwest in response to a break in the subtropical ridge near 60W. The official track forecast, which is very similar to the previous one, follows the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.8N 39.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 19.5N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 22.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 29.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 31.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer] http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ I wear the cheese. It does not wear me. Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/ Thanks for the information, Graham. That is what I figured too..albeit more guesswork than not! ![]() Joe. |
#18
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![]() NHC Gaston history INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH On the public ECMWF polar plot archives its possible to track the "Azores" system back to 72 hr run of 21 August 0000Z and I make its then position ( +/-2 degrees) at about 19N 39W So it looks as though the "Azores" system is/was Gaston , not Fiona which was predicted to be 63.3W early 24 Aug |
#19
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On Wednesday, 24 August 2016 12:17:53 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
NHC Gaston history INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH On the public ECMWF polar plot archives its possible to track the "Azores" system back to 72 hr run of 21 August 0000Z and I make its then position ( +/-2 degrees) at about 19N 39W So it looks as though the "Azores" system is/was Gaston , not Fiona which was predicted to be 63.3W early 24 Aug Good for me. Whichever it is, all models have it somewhere in our vicinity in 10 days time. |
#20
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Any confusion over which one the chart is/was showing is understandable at that range. Gaston's track is one to watch now for later in the period..
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