On 23/08/2016 18:42, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts.


ECMF(240hr) of a couple of days ago, tracked back the Azores intense low
to where Fiona was , on her owna couple of days back , before Hermine or
Gaston had any designation or sustainable structure . Changes a lot in
intensity though throuhg her life.

On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 19:01:18 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 18:42, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts.


ECMF(240hr) of a couple of days ago, tracked back the Azores intense low
to where Fiona was , on her owna couple of days back , before Hermine or
Gaston had any designation or sustainable structure . Changes a lot in
intensity though throuhg her life.

Pretty certain the depression shown yesterday, and today, on charts for c. Aug 31 is Gaston.

J.

On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 19:01:18 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 18:42, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 18:26:05 UTC+1, wrote:
On Tuesday, 23 August 2016 12:31:39 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 23/08/2016 11:19, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

Gaston, being a rather fickle creature, may soon be turning an eye
towards Hermine.

I see that the ECMWF model predicts one of them (not sure which) as a fairly
intense feature close NW of the Azores at 0000z on 1st Sep then something like
600 miles SW of Ireland 24 hours later. Mind you. the chances of getting that
level of detail anywhere close to correct at 10 days range are pretty small.
Nevertheless, there's clearly potential for interesting developments.


As Gaston has only got his act together over the last day I assumed he's
not really appeared on the early Sept projections yet, but more
north-going track, a shorter potential track to the UK. I'm going with
the Azores one early Sept being Fiona as that tracks back and the one
off the east USA seaboard being the more west-going track of Hermine

Looks like Fiona may die now as it approaches Florida while Gaston, the one I believe shows on the models of late, strengthens but stays off-shore and liable to eventually track this way.

J.

Fiona, or Gaston? I thought I'd tracked it back to Fiona, but I'm now having second thoughts.


ECMF(240hr) of a couple of days ago, tracked back the Azores intense low
to where Fiona was , on her owna couple of days back , before Hermine or
Gaston had any designation or sustainable structure . Changes a lot in
intensity though throuhg her life.

That's what I'd seen. Commentary here made me question! TY.

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231433
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more
organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation
and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the
requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.
The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the
latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease,
the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not
likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In
addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit
any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this
time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On 23/08/2016 20:03, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered unlikely to
recover; her death is expected to occur during the coming weekend.

According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231433
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more
organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation
and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the
requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.
The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the
latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease,
the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not
likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In
addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit
any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this
time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


This upper winds image is now showing Gaston and the triplet nicely
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...pe=0&archive=0
coming in at the bottom, rejuvanated storm 6 that became Fiona in the
middle and Hermine off the eastern USA seaboard

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 20:58:41 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

On 23/08/2016 20:03, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered
unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the
coming weekend.

According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231433
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more
organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation
and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the
requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.
The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the
latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease,
the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not
likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In
addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit
any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this
time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


This upper winds image is now showing Gaston and the triplet nicely
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...pe=0&archive=0
coming in at the bottom, rejuvanated storm 6 that became Fiona in the
middle and Hermine off the eastern USA seaboard

In that forecast for 2nd September, the storm in the middle, the one
with an eye, is Gaston. The one at the bottom is a forecast new
development.

Here is the latest for Gaston:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240234
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

Gaston's cloud pattern has a figure-nine appearance, with an
apparent dry slot over the southwest quadrant, and lacks a
well-defined CDO at this time. The intensity is held at 55 kt in
agreement with subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The
system has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow and is expected
to remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so.
Therefore, the cyclone is likely to intensify into a hurricane in 12
to 24 hours. In about 36 hours, however, Gaston should encounter
increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-tropospheric
trough near 50-55W. This should at least temporarily halt the
intensification process, and probably cause a little weakening.
The global models indicate that Gaston will pass by the trough in 72
hours, and reintensification should commence around that time. The
official intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance
models through 72 hours, and close to the model consensus
thereafter.

The motion continues toward the west-northwest, or 290/15 kt.
Gaston should gradually turn toward the northwest in response to a
break in the subtropical ridge near 60W. The official track
forecast, which is very similar to the previous one, follows the
latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.8N 39.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.5N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 22.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 29.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 31.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On Wednesday, 24 August 2016 06:25:09 UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 20:58:41 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

On 23/08/2016 20:03, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 10:31:41 +0100
Graham P Davis wrote:

On Tue, 23 Aug 2016 08:02:51 +0100
N_Cook wrote:

Will they honeymoon in the UK the first week of September?

Sadly, it appears Fiona is seriously ill and is considered
unlikely to recover; her death is expected to occur during the
coming weekend.

According to NHC, 'Fiona is finished, this is the last advisory'.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 231433
TCDAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

Satellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more
organization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation
and no organized deep convection. Thus, Fiona no longer meets the
requirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.
The initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the
latest Dvorak estimates. While wind shear is forecast to decrease,
the low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not
likely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions. In
addition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit
any organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this
time. The low should move northwestward into a break in the
subtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 26.1N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 24/0000Z 26.6N 66.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/1200Z 27.5N 67.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 25/0000Z 28.4N 69.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1200Z 29.0N 69.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z 29.5N 71.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


This upper winds image is now showing Gaston and the triplet nicely
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...pe=0&archive=0
coming in at the bottom, rejuvanated storm 6 that became Fiona in the
middle and Hermine off the eastern USA seaboard

In that forecast for 2nd September, the storm in the middle, the one
with an eye, is Gaston. The one at the bottom is a forecast new
development.

Here is the latest for Gaston:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 240234
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016
1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016

Gaston's cloud pattern has a figure-nine appearance, with an
apparent dry slot over the southwest quadrant, and lacks a
well-defined CDO at this time. The intensity is held at 55 kt in
agreement with subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. The
system has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow and is expected
to remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so.
Therefore, the cyclone is likely to intensify into a hurricane in 12
to 24 hours. In about 36 hours, however, Gaston should encounter
increasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-tropospheric
trough near 50-55W. This should at least temporarily halt the
intensification process, and probably cause a little weakening.
The global models indicate that Gaston will pass by the trough in 72
hours, and reintensification should commence around that time. The
official intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance
models through 72 hours, and close to the model consensus
thereafter.

The motion continues toward the west-northwest, or 290/15 kt.
Gaston should gradually turn toward the northwest in response to a
break in the subtropical ridge near 60W. The official track
forecast, which is very similar to the previous one, follows the
latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.8N 39.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.5N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 19.5N 44.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 22.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 26.5N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 29.5N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 31.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Thanks for the information, Graham.
That is what I figured too..albeit more guesswork than not!

Joe.

NHC Gaston history
INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

On the public ECMWF polar plot archives its possible to track the
"Azores" system back to 72 hr run of 21 August 0000Z and I make its then
position ( +/-2 degrees) at about
19N 39W
So it looks as though the "Azores" system is/was Gaston , not Fiona
which was predicted to be 63.3W early 24 Aug

On Wednesday, 24 August 2016 12:17:53 UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
NHC Gaston history
INIT 24/0300Z 14.7N 37.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

On the public ECMWF polar plot archives its possible to track the
"Azores" system back to 72 hr run of 21 August 0000Z and I make its then
position ( +/-2 degrees) at about
19N 39W
So it looks as though the "Azores" system is/was Gaston , not Fiona
which was predicted to be 63.3W early 24 Aug

Good for me. Whichever it is, all models have it somewhere in our vicinity in 10 days time.

Any confusion over which one the chart is/was showing is understandable at that range. Gaston's track is one to watch now for later in the period..